ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Woofde]

It's really unfortunate, but Jamaica might end up being what Beryl needs to weaken. Land + shear is far more effective, especially with the mountains.

[CrazyC83]

From what I could tell, maybe the ERC is finishing up and Beryl may get another chance to intensify before getting to Jamaica (or the wind shear)? Also, could the shear be over-estimated? I know that happened with Matthew, which intensified rapidly in what was thought to be 20-30 knots of shear.

[msbee]

Much to be learned on the way very powerful storms create their own environment and maintain their strength despite all odds.

There's protective UL high pressure over Beryl. She's a beast. The path continues to be more north of expected.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

Thats scary! At this rate, it will be a direct pass over Kingston. I don't see where they've been calling for a near miss, or near hit. I feel like thus will be a direct hit, and in the worst place on the island. Hope I'm wrong, but I had that feeling when she was SE of Barbados, and posted Carruacou looked bad, in Sunday

God I hope I'm wrong..

I hope you are wrong too. Jamaica cannot handle a storm like this. I have family there right now.

[HurricaneBrain]

Staying put at 150mph…

[NDG]

All I know is that I have seen Cat 3 Hurricanes in the Atlantic before keep their intensity with shear analyzed as high as 20 knots as long as the dry air doesn't penetrate the core and with it tracking over such deep warm waters I wouldn't doubt if it doesn't get below Cat 3 before reaching the Yucatan.

[chaser1]

From what I could tell, maybe the ERC is finishing up and Beryl may get another chance to intensify before getting to Jamaica (or the wind shear)? Also, could the shear be over-estimated? I know that happened with Matthew, which intensified rapidly in what was thought to be 20-30 knots of shear.

I think you're right, but any further deepening might be short lived pending how quickly a full-on westward track occurs. As I see it, this would only exacerbate the already lower level wind shear. I think this is evidenced by taking a far broader view of Beryl's entire canopy.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Jacob_Feuer/status/1808293475789799613

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, if you look at many of the classic Caribbean cruising hurricanes (Allen, Ivan, Emily, Dean, and Felix as examples), you'll notice that a lot of them maintained major hurricane intensity throughout their entire trek through the Caribbean Sea. I wonder if these kinds of storms are, somehow, extremely shear resilient and don't get knocked down by shear as badly as other types of hurricanes might.

[Zonacane]

[Cpv17]

The cone now goes as far N as Port O’Connor. Almost to Matagorda.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, if you look at many of the classic Caribbean cruising hurricanes (Allen, Ivan, Emily, Dean, and Felix as examples), you'll notice that a lot of them maintained major hurricane intensity throughout their entire trek through the Caribbean Sea. I wonder if these kinds of storms are, somehow, extremely shear resilient and don't get knocked down by shear as badly as other types of hurricanes might.

I think so. Also, add Gilbert after Jamaica. As long as they’re not too much further N than Allen because then Hispaniola often helps to weaken them some. And not too far S of Dean to be far enough N of S.A. Whereas shear is often underdone, shear resilience is also often underdone.

[Travorum]

The latest center measurements from the NOAA recon passes show not a lot of vertical tilt, and it may be getting more vertically centered between the two passes:

For reference, these were the center measurements from this morning:

[Sunnydays]

Those pink colors showing up on IR now.... Doesn't the pink represent higher winds than the white? Wrapping around the center I mean?

[txag2005]

The latest center measurements from the NOAA recon passes show not a lot of vertical tilt, and it may be getting more vertically centered between the two passes:

For reference, these were the center measurements from this morning

What are the implications of this?

[Ian2401]

Those pink colors showing up on IR now.... Doesn't the pink represent higher winds than the white? Wrapping around the center I mean?

cloud top temperatures

[IcyTundra]

The latest center measurements from the NOAA recon passes show not a lot of vertical tilt, and it may be getting more vertically centered between the two passes:

For reference, these were the center measurements from this morning

What are the implications of this?

In a high shear environment you would expect the mid level and low level centers to be further apart as far as I know.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Those pink colors showing up on IR now.... Doesn't the pink represent higher winds than the white? Wrapping around the center I mean?

Usually means hot towers going up. Also usually a sign of intensification.

[Travorum]

The latest center measurements from the NOAA recon passes show not a lot of vertical tilt, and it may be getting more vertically centered between the two passes:

For reference, these were the center measurements from this morning

What are the implications of this?

In a high shear environment you would expect the mid level and low level centers to be further apart as far as I know.

^This, AFAIK it may suggest that Beryl's core structure isn't severely impacted by the current shear.

[Jr0d]

Uhggh.

Unbelievable!

I was confident Beryl would be feeling shear and show signs of significant weakening, even if down to 'only' a cat 3.

Seeing her continue to outperform makes me feel sick knowing a Jamaica impact is inevitable. Sure we were expecting a significant impact but right now this is just terrible.

[Zonacane]

The latest center measurements from the NOAA recon passes show not a lot of vertical tilt, and it may be getting more vertically centered between the two passes:

For reference, these were the center measurements from this morning

What are the implications of this?

Beryl is destroying the TUTT