ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me, or does it look like Beryl is improving?

[Frank P]

That is about as close to kissing the southern coast of Jamaica as you can get...still has a slight northerly component to it also

[GCANE]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

It's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, at least this what I've been thinking and saying for a while now.

I agree. I have been thinking Cancun for a couple days

[Kazmit]

As soon as it passes Treasure Beach, land interaction will become less of an issue as the coast will start to curve away from the track she will be headed on.

[JaxGator]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

Yep, there’s a stationary front/trough with low pressure attached to it is strapped across Georgia near North Florida, south of the high pressure ridge. It’s been the cause (besides day time heating and the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico sea breeze fronts) of my locale’s daily thunderstorms. I was wondering what role this stubborn trough has to play regarding Beryl’s track. NWS Jax (per their forecast discussion) says it’s supposed to move out after the 4th of July with high pressure taking over.

[aspen]

Starting to degrade a bit on satellite imagery again. The eye is less defined and the CDO is no longer uniformly cool.

[WaveBreaking]

Convection seemingly trying to wrap upshear once more while <-70°C tops have become asymmetrical for now at least.

[jlauderdal]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

Yep, there’s a stationary front/trough with low pressure attached to it is strapped across Georgia near North Florida, south of the high pressure ridge. It’s been the cause (besides day time heating and the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico sea breeze fronts) of my locale’s daily thunderstorms. I was wondering what role this stubborn trough has to play regarding Beryl. NWS Jax (per their forecast discussion) says it’s supposed to move out after the 4th of July with high pressure taking over.

The ridge is in control of beryl all the way to Matamoras

[HoustonFrog]

If you look at the NHC cone history, decent chage. Over past three days it's shifted from south Mexico to S Padre to now Mid/North Mexico to Corpus. Pretty big change

[JaxGator]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

Yep, there’s a stationary front/trough with low pressure attached to it is strapped across Georgia near North Florida, south of the high pressure ridge. It’s been the cause (besides day time heating and the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico sea breeze fronts) of my locale’s daily thunderstorms. I was wondering what role this stubborn trough has to play regarding Beryl. NWS Jax (per their forecast discussion) says it’s supposed to move out after the 4th of July with high pressure taking over.

The ridge is in control of beryl all the way to Matamoras

Not saying that the Beryl can beat the ridge. Hurricanes can’t move against high pressure ridges. I was more speculating its current strength.

[TomballEd]

If you look at the NHC cone history, decent chage. Over past three days it's shifted from south Mexico to S Padre to now Mid/North Mexico to Corpus. Pretty big change

Other than being in the error cone, when was Corpus Christi or Padre Island ever been the NHC forecast cone. A bit of a N trend the last few days, but it never was aimed at Texas,

The slight trend N brings the error cone closer to IMBY. That is based on historical error at the time range. Even near La Pesca, siince 2-4 foot surge will flood all the way across the barrier island of Galveston (outside the seawall), the Bolivar and Brazoria counties, and that happened already with a much weaker storm, I wouldn't leave a car down there.

[TomballEd]

If you look at the NHC cone history, decent chage. Over past three days it's shifted from south Mexico to S Padre to now Mid/North Mexico to Corpus. Pretty big change

Other than being in the error cone, when was Corpus Christi or Padre Island ever been the NHC forecast cone. A bit of a N trend the last few days, but it never was aimed at Texas,

The slight trend N brings the error cone closer to IMBY. That is based on historical error at the time range. Even near La Pesca, siince 2-4 foot surge will flood all the way across the barrier island of Galveston (outside the seawall), the Bolivar and Brazoria counties, and that happened already with a much weaker storm, I wouldn't leave a car down there.

Forecast track, not forecast cone

[StormChaser75]

eye coming into Grand Cayman radar range.

[tolakram]

If you look at the NHC cone history, decent chage. Over past three days it's shifted from south Mexico to S Padre to now Mid/North Mexico to Corpus. Pretty big change

Other than being in the error cone, when was Corpus Christi or Padre Island ever been the NHC forecast cone. A bit of a N trend the last few days, but it never was aimed at Texas,

The slight trend N brings the error cone closer to IMBY. That is based on historical error at the time range. Even near La Pesca, siince 2-4 foot surge will flood all the way across the barrier island of Galveston (outside the seawall), the Bolivar and Brazoria counties, and that happened already with a much weaker storm, I wouldn't leave a car down there.

But who has done better? All they can do is follow the models, that's the only data we have except for random posters who claim to know it all but never show it ahead of time. There is nothing wrong with criticizing a forecast, but you have to have data to back it up. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Never in the history of S2K has anyone been so much as scolded for saying they did not agree with the NHC forecast and providing what they thought was going to happen.

Intensity forecasts are usually bad, this one has been better than average so far. I just don't get it.

[HoustonFrog]

If you look at the NHC cone history, decent chage. Over past three days it's shifted from south Mexico to S Padre to now Mid/North Mexico to Corpus. Pretty big change

Other than being in the error cone, when was Corpus Christi or Padre Island ever been the NHC forecast cone. A bit of a N trend the last few days, but it never was aimed at Texas,

The slight trend N brings the error cone closer to IMBY. That is based on historical error at the time range. Even near La Pesca, siince 2-4 foot surge will flood all the way across the barrier island of Galveston (outside the seawall), the Bolivar and Brazoria counties, and that happened already with a much weaker storm, I wouldn't leave a car down there.

Sorry meant error cone. But if you look at track, it's shifted hundreds of miles north over the past few days. Advisory 13 is firmly pointed at south Mexico

[Hurricane2022]

Well, I don't know if mr. Tolakram likes cheese or not, but I'm pretty sure cheese is one of the finite things Beryl doesn't like. So I think we'd better get back to talking about things specifically related to Beryl and who stands in her way soon, rather than criticizing or making non-constructive complaints against Meteorologists who are there every single day to do the job they've been asked to do since their first day there. They get paid for everything they do, and they are fully aware of what they are doing. They're not there to play with airplanes or trucks, obviously. But they are there to help entire nations prepare and protect themselves from misfortunes like Beryl.

[Portastorm]

Friends, back to the weather. Please.

[mpic]

As a total layman and somebody who knows very little, I think the important thing to take away from the NHC track or cone is to always be prepared. Mother Nature bows to nobody.

[StPeteMike]

Off subject from the conversation going but related to Beryl, she has been a textbook example of a Caribbean Cruiser. Unfortunately, we see them more August/September than late June/July. Hopefully this isn’t a forthcoming of things to come this season, though we kind of expected a Caribbean more favorable to storms (less shear, warmer waters) than previous years.

I looked back at the last time we had a good Caribbean Cruiser and the earliest was 2007, which had both Dean and Felix.

[Tailgater33]

Beryl is a pretty small I would expect the circulation will get disturbed a good bit by Jamaica(sorry mates).

From the videos I've seen, it doesn't look too disturbed to me, if anything it may be getting stronger.

Stay safe HipshotI( I think you are in Jamaica right). I’m sure the southern shore is taking a beating from this Cat 4