ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cpv17]

If Beryl continues toward the Yucatán with her general movement the past 5 hours, she will clip it. That WSW movement will need to happen today for models to verify.

Completely agree. She appears to be headed towards Cozumel or slightly N of there.

[Teban54]

Latest recon pass 20 minutes ago, which showed 101 kt FL and 90 kt SFMR in the NE quad, seems to imply Beryl is (finally) no longer a major.

That may change later with the eyewall already closed, shear dropping and OHC increasing, giving Beryl another chance to intensify. On the other hand, the pass did show double wind maxima in both NE and SW quads, so it could also be another EWRC on the way.

[Hurricane2022]

That may change later with the eyewall already closed, shear dropping and OHC increasing, giving Beryl another chance to intensify.

Yes.

[LarryWx]

NHC 11AM forecast yesterday:

36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH


NHC 5AM forecast today:

12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH


NHC 11AM actual location:

INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

By comparing these 3, one can see the trend that she gets as far N as 19.0N at a further E longitude: note that current location of 19.0N is with longitude of 82.6W vs 85.5W on yesterday’s 11AM forecast and 83.6W on today’s 5AM forecast. The implications are that this may mean a further N landfall in the W Gulf than earlier forecasted.

[mpic]

I have new friends from Guatemala and still have family there. Any insights on how they will be impacted? I'm assuming that the more northern Yucatan path will lessen the impact, but it's still so close. More wind than rain?

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest recon pass 20 minutes ago, which showed 101 kt FL and 90 kt SFMR in the NE quad, seems to imply Beryl is (finally) no longer a major.

That may change later with the eyewall already closed, shear dropping and OHC increasing, giving Beryl another chance to intensify. On the other hand, the pass did show double wind maxima in both NE and SW quads, so it could also be another EWRC on the way.

I see the double maximum on sfmr but not really on FL. Beryl’s sw quad has been gutted, so the banding has probably weakened and spread out a bit. If it continues to tighten back up and rebuild it’s core, I think it’s possible this continues without an ewrc as long as it doesn’t ingest much dry air in the process

[Frank P]

sure looks to me it still has the northerly component with her.. I would image per the NHC a more westerly motion should start at any time... Beryl is a very interesting cane to track...

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1808891602917593140

[ROCK]

Man, if that holds then you can almost throw all the 06Z runs out the window. A lot less Yuc to ingest on this current heading into the GOM.

Edit to add and some of the 12Z that are running now.

[sphelps8681]

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1808891602917593140

Wow that is quite a bit of difference there if it pans out especially with track.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's trying to pop out an eye

[Stormgodess]

Man, if that holds then you can almost throw all the 06Z runs out the window. A lot less Yuc to ingest on this current heading into the GOM.

Question for anyone who cares to share:

So at the point she reaches the Gulf, what would be the steering system that causes the hook/curve to the east that some of the models were showing? And If she does continue more north than the forecast track predicts, would the timing of that, change the chances of hook east happening?

[LadyBug72]

Is there a certain time she would have to start the WSW bend to stay on the track of what the NHC sees?

[tolakram]

[Charleswachal]

https://i.imgur.com/mVIEoLU.png

https://i.imgur.com/J0BF8f1.gif

Certainly looks like she's about to pull another eye out. If that eye clears out we should see more strengthening. Still calling for a landfall near corpus Christi

[underthwx]

If Beryl continues toward the Yucatán with her general movement the past 5 hours, she will clip it. That WSW movement will need to happen today for models to verify.

I have wondered if Beryl will just graze the northern edge of the Yucatan?....and continue towards the border of Mexico/Texas?....and restrengthen?....will that be the outcome?

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/mVIEoLU.png

https://i.imgur.com/J0BF8f1.gif

Certainly looks like she's about to pull another eye out. If that eye clears out we should see more strengthening. Still calling for a landfall near corpus Christi

I agree. Corpus Christi looks like a decent bet right now.

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/mVIEoLU.png

https://i.imgur.com/J0BF8f1.gif

Beryl almost looks to me as if it is moving NNW?....its difficult for me to tell....

[Cpv17]

If Beryl continues toward the Yucatán with her general movement the past 5 hours, she will clip it. That WSW movement will need to happen today for models to verify.

I have wondered if Beryl will just graze the northern edge of the Yucatan?....and continue towards the border of Mexico/Texas?....and restrengthen?....will that be the outcome?

If that were to happen then Corpus Christi to Galveston better watch out big time.

[tolakram]

So I see more shear today, not less, and I think it's tilting NE now, which is causing a lot of "this wasn't supposed to happen" posts on social media. One never knows, but without seeing the lower levels I think it's still on track.




source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#