ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC

What direction is she currently moving?

From NHC: PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

[vbhoutex]

Final landfall.

I didn’t think so before, but I’m starting to wrap my mind around an EXTREME NE Mexico or Boca Chica landfall. Furthest north I can reason with is North Padre and Corpus.

Now strength is something I’ll argue on. Unless it ends up in the Puucs, idk if it would degrade all the way down to a TS before getting into the Gulf.

I’m thinking Port Mansfield area. Maybe Baffin Bay. Furthest N I could see would be Port Aransas.

That is currently my thinking. If it makes it up to the Port Aransas, that will be much too close to us for my liking. I've had enough severe weather for a while after going through the Derecho last month!

[South Texas Storms]

Watching radar, Beryl also looks to have slowed down considerably recently. Anyone else seeing the same?
Edit: may just be perception from the storm reaching the edge of the radar's range

Just watching the Weather Channel, they were commenting the same thing. Also that with it's slow down and the system entering the Gulf behind it, that it could pull moisture in and create a slow moving flood event for SE Texas.

Any comments on this? Went through Harvey, 60" of rain in three days... never want to experience that again.

I could see some areas getting up to 10-15 inches of rain from this storm. While the system will likely slow down near landfall, a stall is not expected. Widespread totals over 10 inches seems unlikely right now.

[LadyBug72]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC

What direction is she currently moving?

From NHC: PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

Thank you. I thought I read she was more along a 275 movement.

[LarryWx]

Does anybody know how vulnerable Brownsville Texas is to surge? Also for that part of Texas, what was the worst hurricane to strike them in history? Thanks

Brownsville MH hits: 1880, 1933, Beulah (1967), Allen (1980)….so, ~1 every 40 yrs

[jabman98]

I didn’t think so before, but I’m starting to wrap my mind around an EXTREME NE Mexico or Boca Chica landfall. Furthest north I can reason with is North Padre and Corpus.

Now strength is something I’ll argue on. Unless it ends up in the Puucs, idk if it would degrade all the way down to a TS before getting into the Gulf.

I’m thinking Port Mansfield area. Maybe Baffin Bay. Furthest N I could see would be Port Aransas.

That is currently my thinking. If it makes it up to the Port Aransas, that will be much too close to us for my liking. I've had enough severe weather for a while after going through the Derecho last month!

Yep. It was terrifying and came up with almost no warning. And then seven days without power. We still have debris piled up in my area. As someone upthread mentioned, the Weather Channel is already talking about Beryl being a slow moving storm and flooding event for Texas. Sounds a lot like Harvey. No thank you.

[cheezyWXguy]

What direction is she currently moving?

From NHC: PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

Thank you. I thought I read she was more along a 275 movement.

It has probably bent a little more to the west since the latest advisory, but it’s hard to tell without recon, a radar in close range (beryl is barely in range of the Cuba radar), or a consistently clear eye.

[CronkPSU]

5:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 19.5°N 84.3°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[vbhoutex]

I’m thinking Port Mansfield area. Maybe Baffin Bay. Furthest N I could see would be Port Aransas.

That is currently my thinking. If it makes it up to the Port Aransas, that will be much too close to us for my liking. I've had enough severe weather for a while after going through the Derecho last month!

Yep. It was terrifying and came up with almost no warning. And then seven days without power. We still have debris piled up in my area. As someone upthread mentioned, the Weather Channel is already talking about Beryl being a slow moving storm and flooding event for Texas. Sounds a lot like Harvey. No thank you.

i don't see a Harvey from this, but IF Beryl makes it to Port Aransas that will be way to long over water for my liking.
And yes, Mr. weather nerd here that goes out in any weather to observe hunkered down in the safe place praying we were going to make it through it. DEFINITELY TERRIFYING and I have been through several major hurricanes and enough tropical systems that I can't count them on my appendages.

[Teban54]

[Teban54]

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm
around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974
mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an
intensity of 95 kt. Since that time, as happened yesterday
afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better
defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand
Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization,
the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of
the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the
outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle.

[Craters]

Watching radar, Beryl also looks to have slowed down considerably recently. Anyone else seeing the same?
Edit: may just be perception from the storm reaching the edge of the radar's range

Just watching the Weather Channel, they were commenting the same thing. Also that with it's slow down and the system entering the Gulf behind it, that it could pull moisture in and create a slow moving flood event for SE Texas.

Any comments on this? Went through Harvey, 60" of rain in three days... never want to experience that again.

Is The Weather Channel referring to any particular model or forecasting data that would imply something like that? I can't see anything from any model at this point that shows the kind of glacial movement that Harvey had for those three (?) days. And I agree that I wouldn't mind at all going through the rest of my life without experiencing another Harvey...

[weeniepatrol]

From today's 5am discussion, number 23:

24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Beryl was expected to reach 19.5 north latitude at 86.7 west, and at 5am tomorrow. Beryl is at this latitude right now, at 84.3 west (~130 n mi further east) and 12 hours sooner. Beryl is also tracking at the northern edge of today's 12z EPS envelope.



Just throwing it out there..

[LadyBug72]

What time will recon be to Beryl?

[IcyTundra]

What time will recon be to Beryl?

Around 7PM central time

[ScottNAtlanta]

This storm must have 9 lives. What a difference from this morning

[Teban54]

From today's 5am discussion, number 23:

24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Beryl was expected to reach 19.5 north latitude at 86.7 west, and at 5am tomorrow. Beryl is at this latitude right now, at 84.3 west (~130 n mi further east) and 12 hours sooner. Beryl is also tracking at the northern edge of today's 12z EPS envelope.

https://i.imgur.com/6neYrRf.png

Just throwing it out there..

This chart below also shows that the W turn that was expected today (or ever since it was past Jamaica) has not yet occurred. Extrapolating the straight-line motion this afternoon would send the eye over the southernmost tip of Cozumel.

This is NOT saying the W turn won't happen, or that we should definitely expect a Cozumel landfall, or that extrapolation is a good idea. But it's worth noting that the forecast track has also shifted noticeably closer to Cozumel in the past 12 hours.

[ChrisH-UK]

Berly eye is visible using the optical depth blended with GeoColour from GEOS-16 but it isn't organised yet.

Source - https://col.st/dtqIe

[weeniepatrol]

From today's 5am discussion, number 23:

24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Beryl was expected to reach 19.5 north latitude at 86.7 west, and at 5am tomorrow. Beryl is at this latitude right now, at 84.3 west (~130 n mi further east) and 12 hours sooner. Beryl is also tracking at the northern edge of today's 12z EPS envelope.

https://i.imgur.com/6neYrRf.png

Just throwing it out there..

Yaakov had a great thread earlier regarding this. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332
Interesting to note that these themes continue compared even to the 12z euro, which was not yet out at the time of his post.

[Bimms]

From today's 5am discussion, number 23:

24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Beryl was expected to reach 19.5 north latitude at 86.7 west, and at 5am tomorrow. Beryl is at this latitude right now, at 84.3 west (~130 n mi further east) and 12 hours sooner. Beryl is also tracking at the northern edge of today's 12z EPS envelope.

https://i.imgur.com/6neYrRf.png

Just throwing it out there..

Yup, this is what I said earlier and have been saying it from the beginning. She's going to skirt that Northern tip of the Yucatan and track north regardless of what the models say or the current cone. Watch for a shift north in the official projected track. My guess is from Corpus all the way up to Galveston are all in play. I would swear this storm is looking at the models and is like "Here, hold my clouds for a sec".