2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

[CyclonicFury]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Hopefully. In the past ~15 years the tropical Atlantic is usually dead in July and first half of August no matter how favorable MJO is. There is a high chance that 2024 will end the lull..

[ElectricStorm]

With Beryl hitting 145kts/934mb (which is impressive even for a peak season storm, let alone early July) that brings up the question of: will Beryl be the strongest storm of the season? Even with an expected hyperactive season ahead, we've seen some very active seasons not produce a Cat 5 (2010 and 2020 come to mind) so it'll be interesting to see if Beryl is still at the top when all is said and done.

My take is: in terms of pressure, no. 934 is pretty high for a Cat 5 and I think we'll see at least one, maybe multiple storms get lower than that. But in terms of wind, I'm not sure we'll see another 145kt storm this season. It sure would be something if we end up with a monster season but the strongest winds were on July 1

[cycloneye]

With Beryl hitting 145kts/934mb (which is impressive even for a peak season storm, let alone early July) that brings up the question of: will Beryl be the strongest storm of the season? Even with an expected hyperactive season ahead, we've seen some very active seasons not produce a Cat 5 (2010 and 2020 come to mind) so it'll be interesting to see if Beryl is still at the top when all is said and done.

My take is: in terms of pressure, no. 934 is pretty high for a Cat 5 and I think we'll see at least one, maybe multiple storms get lower than that. But in terms of wind, I'm not sure we'll see another 145kt storm this season. It sure would be something if we end up with a monster season but the strongest winds were on July 1

You gave me a great idea. Going to make a poll.

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Atlantic should remain active as long as the EPAC continues to struggle. Regardless of intraseasonal variability.

[aspen]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Pretty expected IMO. The last several seasons with a June or early July MDR/Caribbean storm ended up having a quiet spell for at least a few weeks in July (and all of August too, in 2022’s case). Even with Beryl going ballistic, an indicator of how favorable the basin is this season, I’m still expecting a quiet period for most of if not all of July, with things picking back up in August.

[Steve]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Pretty expected IMO. The last several seasons with a June or early July MDR/Caribbean storm ended up having a quiet spell for at least a few weeks in July (and all of August too, in 2022’s case). Even with Beryl going ballistic, an indicator of how favorable the basin is this season, I’m still expecting a quiet period for most of if not all of July, with things picking back up in August.

I think this has to do with the MJO. Most of the global models want to put it up in Phase 6 toward the middle of the month. However, the JMA and BOM (Australian) bring it into the lower part of the circle for possible reemergence into Phases 8 or 1. We'll have to see where it's at in 10-12 days and where it's heading. It might be a little quiet after 96L (which may or may not develop), but I don't think it's going to be an only-backloaded season like some other La Nina years. As it is, there's a fairly good chance we'll be past the D storm before July 10th.

[Deshaunrob17]

I would love to see the updated hurricane season forecasts. Beryl gave us a huge head start.

[cycloneye]

I would love to see the updated hurricane season forecasts. Beryl gave us a huge head start.

TSR comes out tommorow and CSU on July 9th.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1808892776639074705

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1808892776639074705

I'm willing to bet that late July-early August, another impactful Cape Verde hurricane is going to happen. It could be another Beryl-like storm, or it could be like an Irma in cruising just north of the Caribbean Sea.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1808960664200720477

[WiscoWx02]

Haven’t most active hurricane seasons seen a shift in the very warm SSTA’s westward as the season has gone on?

[Teban54]

Haven’t most active hurricane seasons seen a shift in the very warm SSTA’s westward as the season has gone on?

Yes, that's my understanding as well and the reason why I'm personally not as concerned by Danny's tweet that I quoted earlier.

Below are two charts of correlation between seasonal ACE and SST anomalies at various times of the year, taken from CSU's forecasts. While April SSTs have a stronger focus on the Canary Current, by August, the correlation mostly comes from the MDR itself.

[Hammy]

 https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1808121569429815537

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Pretty expected IMO. The last several seasons with a June or early July MDR/Caribbean storm ended up having a quiet spell for at least a few weeks in July (and all of August too, in 2022’s case). Even with Beryl going ballistic, an indicator of how favorable the basin is this season, I’m still expecting a quiet period for most of if not all of July, with things picking back up in August.

Even last year, we had nothing in the tropical Atlantic after Cindy for almost two months, with Don being the only system to develop at all during that time

[CyclonicFury]

It does appear as if after Beryl the Atlantic will be mostly quiet for a couple weeks. I think we should see activity return by late July though when the more favorable MJO/CCKW returns.

Pretty expected IMO. The last several seasons with a June or early July MDR/Caribbean storm ended up having a quiet spell for at least a few weeks in July (and all of August too, in 2022’s case). Even with Beryl going ballistic, an indicator of how favorable the basin is this season, I’m still expecting a quiet period for most of if not all of July, with things picking back up in August.

Even last year, we had nothing in the tropical Atlantic after Cindy for almost two months, with Don being the only system to develop at all during that time

2010, one of the top analogs for this year, also had Hurricane Alex in late June/early July, but only a few weak systems after that until Danielle formed on August 22. I'm not convinced we'll see July come close to 2005-level activity even with Beryl. I'd be shocked if we don't see another storm before the end of the month though.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I've been kind of thinking at it lately, but I have some theories that could (at least) partially explain how the heck Beryl even happened. As in, Cat 5 in July. And, interestingly, I've noticed some parallels with it and 2005, as well as what other extremely warm Atlantic years (like 2010) lacked.

1. Everything else was dead. The WPAC was completely dead, and the EPAC as well. Not a single storm or disturbance. And it was like this for nearly all of June. I think this might have helped in some way to make the Atlantic ultra-favorable, arguably even moreso than 2005. On the other hand, 2010 had an extra-favorable June EPAC (including Cat 5 Celia there), and we basically only had Alex.

2. Extremely warm sst anomalies. Not only that though, but if you look at a map showing 2005 and 2024's sst anomaly distribution at around the same time near late June, you'll notice an interesting similarity. The bulk of the warmth wasn't in a fiery-C-shape (outlining the AMO, much like 2023 was) but was rather centered over the Caribbean and the heart of the central Atlantic and the MDR. The Canary Current wasn't all that warm compared to the former areas.

3. Previous active El Ninos and a slow transition to La Nina. 2004 was an extremely active El Nino year. So was 2023. There might have been something about this that made the Atlantic unusually favorable by this time of the year too. I'll also add 1980 in, as that year we just came out of a fairly strong season during El Nino (Cat 5 David and Cat 4 Frederic). In 1980, we had Cat 5 Allen, which, while not a July storm, was pretty close as it was an early August system.

4. Unremarkable Sahara Dust levels. Remember in 2020, the news about the "Godzilla" dust cloud during the summer? I don't remember hearing anything about anomalous levels of dust this summer. And I don't know if we had anything of that sort in 2005 either.

These might be things we should look for in future hurricane seasons, imho.

[WaveBreaking]

2. Extremely warm sst anomalies. Not only that though, but if you look at a map showing 2005 and 2024's sst anomaly distribution at around the same time near late June, you'll notice an interesting similarity.

Yeah 2024 and 2005 do look eerily similar currently, with the main difference being 2005 having a slight +PDO and full blown Atlantic Niña while 2024 has a -PDO and a less pronounced Atlantic Niña. I wonder if these differences will influence steering/favorability this year compared to 2005.

[Hurricane2022]

2. Extremely warm sst anomalies. Not only that though, but if you look at a map showing 2005 and 2024's sst anomaly distribution at around the same time near late June, you'll notice an interesting similarity.

Yeah 2024 and 2005 do look eerily similar currently, with the main difference being 2005 having a slight +PDO and full blown Atlantic Niña while 2024 has a -PDO and a less pronounced Atlantic Niña. I wonder if these differences will influence steering/favorability this year compared to 2005.

https://imgur.com/rbKSqaI.jpg
https://imgur.com/BQVfIPU.jpg

I wonder if that warm blob between Newfoundland and the Azores might affect activity in the tropics a bit in the coming months.