ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Cancun radar looks like it is moving at between NNW/NW...

[Steve]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1809279670049034666




JB says the ICON has been perfoming well. Thinks landfall between Corpus and Galveston is most likely in his eyes.

ICONic

[Blinhart]

Cancun radar looks like it is moving at between NNW/NW...

I was thinking the same exact thing.

[GCANE]

WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

[WaveBreaking]

Now down to 60kt with a pressure of 986mb.

[Frank P]

Cancun radar looks like it is moving at between NNW/NW...

I was thinking the same exact thing.

And getting closer to the GOM using map estimator my SWAG is about 25-30 miles or so...

[UTSARoadrunner4]

WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?

[ColdFusion]

Woo boy, that's stretching it for sure. But it is within the 5% probably part of the official NHC cone, so won't say impossible.

not going to discount anything at this point as I have watched Rita slide on by 72hrs out....Watch Humberto slide right by even closer than that.

Hard to beat the Katrina shift west with 3 days out, was pinpointing the FL panhandle and we all know how that panned out.. I remember getting a message from wxmn57 on that Friday before the storm telling me he was pretty sure that it was not going into the FL Panhandle but towards the MS and NOLA areas... I think his mother lived in Pascagoula at the time... remember it like yesterday..

Totally agree, I remember it well myself. I do also think though that the NHC has gotten MUCH better at forecasting in the 19 years since Katrina and Rita.

[Category5Kaiju]

WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?

That would be good for Beryl. CAPE is convective available potential energy, so the more you have in a specific location, the more vigorous you can make the clouds above (and stronger the storm), in layman terms.

[Steve]

WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?

7500 CAPE is nearly unheard of. That's about as much juicy energy as there could be.

[ScottNAtlanta]

not going to discount anything at this point as I have watched Rita slide on by 72hrs out....Watch Humberto slide right by even closer than that.

Hard to beat the Katrina shift west with 3 days out, was pinpointing the FL panhandle and we all know how that panned out.. I remember getting a message from wxmn57 on that Friday before the storm telling me he was pretty sure that it was not going into the FL Panhandle but towards the MS and NOLA areas... I think his mother lived in Pascagoula at the time... remember it like yesterday..

Totally agree, I remember it well myself. I do also think though that the NHC has gotten MUCH better at forecasting in the 19 years since Katrina and Rita.

It's been NINETEEN YEARS??? God do I feel old right now

[pamdsh]

Watching radar, Beryl also looks to have slowed down considerably recently. Anyone else seeing the same?
Edit: may just be perception from the storm reaching the edge of the radar's range

Just watching the Weather Channel, they were commenting the same thing. Also that with it's slow down and the system entering the Gulf behind it, that it could pull moisture in and create a slow moving flood event for SE Texas.

Any comments on this? Went through Harvey, 60" of rain in three days... never want to experience that again.

Is The Weather Channel referring to any particular model or forecasting data that would imply something like that? I can't see anything from any model at this point that shows the kind of glacial movement that Harvey had for those three (?) days. And I agree that I wouldn't mind at all going through the rest of my life without experiencing another Harvey...

Don't know what model they were using, just saying it could be a big rainmaker.

[Steve]

Just watching the Weather Channel, they were commenting the same thing. Also that with it's slow down and the system entering the Gulf behind it, that it could pull moisture in and create a slow moving flood event for SE Texas.

Any comments on this? Went through Harvey, 60" of rain in three days... never want to experience that again.

Is The Weather Channel referring to any particular model or forecasting data that would imply something like that? I can't see anything from any model at this point that shows the kind of glacial movement that Harvey had for those three (?) days. And I agree that I wouldn't mind at all going through the rest of my life without experiencing another Harvey...

Don't know what model they were using, just saying it could be a big rainmaker.

I don't hate on the weather channel, but you or I could have said that and been right.

[Frank P]

post deleted by FP

[UTSARoadrunner4]

WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?

7500 CAPE is nearly unheard of. That's about as much juicy energy as there could be.

Gotcha. Has there ever been a case where there was too much CAPE for a system to handle? Like an overindulgence kind of thing? Because the higher CAPE values I’m used to seeing is in the 3500-4000 range.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Beryl is really trying to be retired this year (if it isn't going to be already)

[AerospaceEng]

Looks like it is rocketing NW toward the water on Cancun radar.

[zzzh]

CAPE is usually not something you care about when analyzing the environment for hurricanes.

[Nederlander]

The center is now approaching the coast, and well east of Merida/Progreso.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it is rocketing NW toward the water on Cancun radar.

It should be there just in time for dinner