2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1809704125892088031

EURO saying we are just in the top of the 3rd inning. Also East coast looks to have a huge target

Ooof! Can’t even see FL there. Enjoy the next 2/3 weeks.

[USTropics]

 https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1809704125892088031

EURO saying we are just in the top of the 3rd inning. Also East coast looks to have a huge target

I would say we're still in the 1st inning, but had a grand slam. Average hurricane days for July 6th is 0.6 (we're at 5.6), average named storms is 1.6 (we're at 3) and average ACE is 3.1 (we're at 33.5).

[crownweather]

 https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1809704125892088031

EURO saying we are just in the top of the 3rd inning. Also East coast looks to have a huge target

I would say we're still in the 1st inning, but had a grand slam. Average hurricane days for July 6th is 0.6 (we're at 5.6), average named storms is 1.6 (we're at 3) and average ACE is 3.1 (we're at 33.5).

More like a home run derby during the 1st inning. Ugh!! That is such an ugly look and we're going to all have to treat the rest of this hurricane season like a marathon rather than a sprint.

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1809704125892088031

EURO saying we are just in the top of the 3rd inning. Also East coast looks to have a huge target

The portion of the dark green areas/active tropics from Lesser Antilles to the NE Gulf and then up the US SE coast is consistent with ASO weak La Niña climo, which is where ENSO (RONI based) appears to be headed. Ominous.

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1809704125892088031

EURO saying we are just in the top of the 3rd inning. Also East coast looks to have a huge target

I would say we're still in the 1st inning, but had a grand slam. Average hurricane days for July 6th is 0.6 (we're at 5.6), average named storms is 1.6 (we're at 3) and average ACE is 3.1 (we're at 33.5).

and by the looks of THAT graphic, the bredth of our season will resemble a meat-grinder with a pattern that might best be compared to a high speed ferris wheel after the carnival ride operator turned the key to the "on" position and then simply left the park

[cycloneye]

Some data came out today from the july NMME run that is I am going to church, so anyone who has the graphics, post them.

[redingtonbeach]

2"anomaly in Florida over 3 months of an active season? Heck, Central Florida is neutral to 1". Doesn't seem like a significant concern? What am I missing?

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.postimg.cc/rFnG0pmx/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-240.gif
We are seeing the huge sloppy wave issue again.

This only seems to be problem if this were mid-August. It’s early July so plenty of time to recalibrate and I think that either a.) the euro is having issues resolving these waves or b.) it corrects itself by August

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

2"anomaly in Florida over 3 months of an active season? Heck, Central Florida is neutral to 1". Doesn't seem like a significant concern? What am I missing?

We aren’t worried about the rainfall directly. That much moisture implies lots of hurricanes.

[AnnularCane]

2"anomaly in Florida over 3 months of an active season? Heck, Central Florida is neutral to 1". Doesn't seem like a significant concern? What am I missing?

We aren’t worried about the rainfall directly. That much moisture implies lots of hurricanes.

I'm sure the answer is obvious, but if there are lots of Gulf hurricanes like that map says, how come the central and Gulf states are shown to be drier than normal?

Mainly because usually on maps like these the precip tends to extend into the states as well.

[CyclonicFury]

Here's the July NMME run, it does look a bit less favorable than the June run with less extreme precip anomalies and a weaker +AMO. Interestingly, despite Beryl seeming like a surefire harbinger of a very active season, nearly all of the July climate models came in with a less favorable NATL look than the June runs - wonder if the recent cooling over the eastern Atlantic is why? Still a very favorable look regardless.

[aspen]

Here's the July NMME run, it does look a bit less favorable than the June run with less extreme precip anomalies and a weaker +AMO. Interestingly, despite Beryl seeming like a surefire harbinger of a very active season, nearly all of the July climate models came in with a less favorable NATL look than the June runs - wonder if the recent cooling over the eastern Atlantic is why? Still a very favorable look regardless.

https://i.imgur.com/WyoigQn.png
https://i.imgur.com/d2ubrKr.png

Perhaps it’s due to that subtropical warm blob.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS does show a weak CCKW passing through the Atlantic around July 15-20, will be interesting to see if models start latching onto anything during that time.

[zzzh]

JJ SST composite for post strong/super Nino years. You can see that they featured a colder Canary Current with warm subtropics due to Atlantic ridging, very similar to what we are seeing this year. And if you add some other post strong Nino years to the composite (1992, 1988, 1983, 1973) it shows a even more pronounced pattern due to the -AMO.
One thing in common in the 7 years is a nearly dead July and first half of August (also very common in recent years). Can 2024 beat the background state and reverse the trend in recent years?

[Steve]

2"anomaly in Florida over 3 months of an active season? Heck, Central Florida is neutral to 1". Doesn't seem like a significant concern? What am I missing?

We aren’t worried about the rainfall directly. That much moisture implies lots of hurricanes.

I'm sure the answer is obvious, but if there are lots of Gulf hurricanes like that map says, how come the central and Gulf states are shown to be drier than normal?

Mainly because usually on maps like these the precip tends to extend into the states as well.

I don’t know. Maybe it’s a 2004 redux?

[cycloneye]

Precipitation from NMME for ASO is a little bit different than the past months as Florida does not look too wet as well, the GOM. Also Caribbean not as wet especially for September / October. Agree with CyclonicFury on what he said in his post. A caveat is this is only one model so is better to see what the other seasonal models are up to and go from there.

[Teban54]

Could this be a case of models over-reacting to latest trends (in this case, short-term cooling in SSTA of the MDR and especially the Canary Current), and extrapolating them for too long? I recall such comments were made in April when the MDR SSTAs also showed brief reductions (though I could have gotten that wrong).

[MississippiWx]

Beginning to wonder what’s up with the SST anomalies. There has been a lot of SAL lately but wondering if there is something else too causing them to cool.

[SFLcane]

Beginning to wonder what’s up with the SST anomalies. There has been a lot of SAL lately but wondering if there is something else too causing them to cool.

CDAS is garbage sst's are plenty warm right on top of the islands and near the Conus.

[weeniepatrol]

Beginning to wonder what’s up with the SST anomalies. There has been a lot of SAL lately but wondering if there is something else too causing them to cool.

yeah they've attenuated a bit as the July trades + SAL do their thing. Beware of CDAS as said , it has a cold bias.


Check out EPS: shows a 603dm Bermuda ridge. July is just not a favorable month.



I would anticipate SSTs rebounding a bit come August as the African monsoon waxes, though.