ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

I was just checking on this. Doesn't look like it has.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/B ... _with_line

It could be a good forecast if you consider 67% to be an appropriate benchmark. I wonder what 50% cone would look like.

It would have to be a terribly bad forecast to actually leave the cone of error before the cone was updated! But yeah, the current path is taking Beryl over areas that were previously outside the cone of error.

That was my main question. I just heard differently. Obviously the cone is always shifting but did that center ever actually leave a previous release of the cone? I’m sure someone will track that in detail.

I think for the most part the NHC will always be able to keep it inside the cone for a 6 hour window. The question is was the landfall location outside of the cone and I would have to look back on previous cones to check. I believe at one point the cone was completely in the south and that Houston was not in the cone at all.

[ROCK]

RECON leaving...wish they could have stayed longer...about to get good.

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

It would have to be a terribly bad forecast to actually leave the cone of error before the cone was updated! But yeah, the current path is taking Beryl over areas that were previously outside the cone of error.

That was my main question. I just heard differently. Obviously the cone is always shifting but did that center ever actually leave a previous release of the cone? I’m sure someone will track that in detail.

I think for the most part the NHC will always be able to keep it inside the cone for a 6 hour window. The question is was the landfall location outside of the cone and I would have to look back on previous cones to check. I believe at one point the cone was completely in the south and that Houston was not in the cone at all.

Just keep in mind that the cone is simply a series of expanding circles around each forecast point, with each circle being larger based on time from forecast and historical error rates. You plot all the circles and make a cone out of it. If their forecast is horribly wrong then the cone will be wrong, but generally landfall location will be in the cone 4 or 5 days out. BUT NOT ALWAYS.

[LarryWx]

New Discussion seems entirely reasonable.

023
WTNT42 KNHC 071448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations
should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions
begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night.
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

Note that the NHC forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher landfalling max winds.

[cheezyWXguy]

New VDM came out, 48-nm eye open on the northwest

610
URNT12 KNHC 071454
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 07/14:10:20Z
B. 25.84 deg N 094.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 3034 m
D. 993 mb
E. 060 deg 8 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C48
H. 45 kt
I. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
J. 034 deg 41 kt
K. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
L. 45 kt
M. 051 deg 25 nm 14:17:30Z
N. 146 deg 58 kt
O. 050 deg 34 nm 14:20:00Z
P. 12 C / 3046 m
Q. 14 C / 3042 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 2802A BERYL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 050 / 34 NM 14:20:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 294 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Expect this eye size to shrink by a good margin once towers start firing off in the northern quadrant. While the structure is coming together, it’s got a long way to go and should tighten up over time

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations
should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions
begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night.
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Steve]

(W)rapping like Chuck D

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[penguinzee]

https://i.imgur.com/LnMoa46.gif

Looks like 2 towers firing off, N & S, in the last frame...

[HurricaneBrain]

My eyes see a N movement on radar and satellite. NHC says NW still and I’m not seeing that.

[Steve]

My eyes see a N movement on radar and satellite. NHC says NW still and I’m not seeing that.

I think recon confirmed a western component but it’s a broad center still (48nm). Can’t remember how long NHC averages out motion - like 6 or 9 hours I think?

[capNstorms]

My eyes see a N movement on radar and satellite. NHC says NW still and I’m not seeing that.

it is heading almost due north, center of the stacked system hasn't moved much to the west as they are thinking, matter of fact the last few frames show a wobble on 95W
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/f ... 24#navLink

[aspen]

New VDM came out, 48-nm eye open on the northwest

610
URNT12 KNHC 071454
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 07/14:10:20Z
B. 25.84 deg N 094.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 3034 m
D. 993 mb
E. 060 deg 8 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C48
H. 45 kt
I. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
J. 034 deg 41 kt
K. 309 deg 75 nm 13:49:00Z
L. 45 kt
M. 051 deg 25 nm 14:17:30Z
N. 146 deg 58 kt
O. 050 deg 34 nm 14:20:00Z
P. 12 C / 3046 m
Q. 14 C / 3042 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 2802A BERYL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 050 / 34 NM 14:20:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 294 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Expect this eye size to shrink by a good margin once towers start firing off in the northern quadrant. While the structure is coming together, it’s got a long way to go and should tighten up over time

A long way to go with very little time (<24 hrs). Most likely we’ll see a Cat 1 at landfall, just like the NHC and hurricane models have been projecting for a while now.

[Ian2401]

seeing hot towers just barely start to go off in the NW quadrant where the dry slot is

[abk_0710]

It may stall - go NE and miss Texas?

Is this an actual scenario?

[Wampadawg]

It may stall - go NE and miss Texas?

Is this an actual scenario?

Unlikely

[chaser1]

Presentation on satellite is becoming quite respectable and evolving significantly more "traditional" then the very small inner core I had anticipated 12 hours ago. That said, I still would be very surprised for Beryl to deepen substantially and exceed a Cat 1 for the simple fact that it's challenging to expect a 40+ mile wide eye to significantly contract in a 24 hr period. Even with slow steady pressure falls the increase in winds typically lag a bit.

[ROCK]

Presentation on satellite is becoming quite respectable and evolving significantly more "traditional" then the very small inner core I had anticipated 12 hours ago. That said, I still would be very surprised for Beryl to deepen substantially and exceed a Cat 1 for the simple fact that it's challenging to expect a 40+ mile wide eye to significantly contract in a 24 hr period. Even with slow steady pressure falls the increase in winds typically lag a bit.

IDK Humberto RI closer than this to the coast into a Cat 1...very similar. But yes winds do lag after pressure drop.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/1809968475391025195

[ronjon]

My eyes see a N movement on radar and satellite. NHC says NW still and I’m not seeing that.

it is heading almost due north, center of the stacked system hasn't moved much to the west as they are thinking, matter of fact the last few frames show a wobble on 95W
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/f ... 24#navLink

Think the view by SAT may show an apparent movement north as the CDO consolidates. From this point forward I see steady strengthening. Eye diameter should slowly shrink as Beryl deepens.