ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Beryl is starting to look like a serious storm on radar. Might be back to cane strength pretty soon. It’s wrapping back up nicely. Hope Texans are prepared. Folks in western Louisiana may have to deal with some serious impacts as well as she moves ashore.

[eastcoastFL]

Not to pick apart your opinion but the models played catch up for the last 5 days to the ICON, JMA even the crappy NAVGEM..as did the NHC.

A broken clock is right twice a day. But I'm not sure what youre talking about with the NHC. The 5 day cone has the projected landfall point in the cone at day 5 when the storm was approaching Jamaica.
https://imgur.com/taQDWQx

Thats a pretty decent forecast to me, especially considering the way the Texas coast lines up with the track where 20 miles E or W is like 100 mile different.

the end of that cone is call "uncertainty" when it bubbles out like that, and that's also just so they can say look we had it in the cone, 96hrs later to make themselves feel better..

I mean it’s not even really “uncertainty” it’s just the average margin for error over previous years.

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting note from the last disco

*** The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm.***

That is some seriously warm water. Then on top of it shear will subside and the jet dynamics to the north will play a part. It’s about as good as it gets as far as intensification set ups go. She’s got about 10 more hours to go for it so this could get very interesting. I’d hate to imagine what it would look like right now if it split the gap between the Yuc and Cuba.

[Charleswachal]

looks like rain rates are coming up SE of the center... looking like it may really start organizing now.

[underthwx]

Beryl is reminding me of Isadore in 2002. Cyclone just couldn't get it back together after visiting the Yucatan. Doubt this system enters RI phase.....MGC

That is encouraging....I read the 4 pm update from NHC....it seems to my novice mind...that beryl has remained less organized longer than previously thought?...which potentially means a weaker beryl than previously thought?....

More or less.. It substantially reduces the chances of reaching a Cat 2 or perhaps even a strong Cat 1. She’s running out of time for that scenario, but it’s not impossible.

That seems to me to be among the scenarios taking shape...and I feel encouraged by this...thanks for replying to me....I do appreciate it...and all yall here....thankyou!

[IcyTundra]

3 mb pressure drop between passes Beryl is starting to get her act together.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

For Gulf Hurricane Enthusiasts, Beryl is a bummer…for now…

For SE Texans, Beryl is an annoyance since this is another wind and rainfall event they have to deal with.

For South & Central Texans, Beryl is a tease. We need more rain.

[IsabelaWeather]

Not to pick apart your opinion but the models played catch up for the last 5 days to the ICON, JMA even the crappy NAVGEM..as did the NHC.

A broken clock is right twice a day. But I'm not sure what youre talking about with the NHC. The 5 day cone has the projected landfall point in the cone at day 5 when the storm was approaching Jamaica.
https://imgur.com/taQDWQx

Thats a pretty decent forecast to me, especially considering the way the Texas coast lines up with the track where 20 miles E or W is like 100 mile different.

the end of that cone is call "uncertainty" when it bubbles out like that, and that's also just so they can say look we had it in the cone, 96hrs later to make themselves feel better..

What are you even talking about? Should they have put the exact path that the storm will take over the next 150 hours? The cone means that there is a 66% chance the center of the storm will be in the highlighted cone at that particular point in time. You don't need to tell me what the cone means...The reason it is bubble, is because a 5 day forecast is prone to numerous errors.

[sphelps8681]

In Lumberton North of Beaumont and got some feeder bands earlier pretty heavy. Then the Sun now thunder in the distance. We are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. We shall see.

Expect it imho. You’ll be close to the center of circulation as it’s coming up. A few miles east or west will make a difference.

Lived here my whole. Going on 60 and we are prepped and ready. Been through Rita, Ike and Harvey and all the littles in between. We got this on this one. Thanks so much.

[underthwx]

Beryl is reminding me of Isadore in 2002. Cyclone just couldn't get it back together after visiting the Yucatan. Doubt this system enters RI phase.....MGC

That is encouraging....I read the 4 pm update from NHC....it seems to my novice mind...that beryl has remained less organized longer than previously thought?...which potentially means a weaker beryl than previously thought?....

It’s what wx98 was talking about. When there is a broader windfield it takes a lot more energy to strengthen than if it’s a small or tight center. Also remember it’s July, there was dry air and land disruption. Despite all that it’s probably still going to crank coming in. If it’s not the southern edge this round, burst after sunset will probably close off the center. Then it’s just a matter of how fast it can intensify before it is inland. I don’t think it can get to the 960s but probably 975 or up?

I will settle for that....again...thankyou

[capNstorms]

A broken clock is right twice a day. But I'm not sure what youre talking about with the NHC. The 5 day cone has the projected landfall point in the cone at day 5 when the storm was approaching Jamaica.
https://imgur.com/taQDWQx

Thats a pretty decent forecast to me, especially considering the way the Texas coast lines up with the track where 20 miles E or W is like 100 mile different.

the end of that cone is call "uncertainty" when it bubbles out like that, and that's also just so they can say look we had it in the cone, 96hrs later to make themselves feel better..

What are you even talking about? Should they have put the exact path that the storm will take over the next 150 hours? The cone means that there is a 66% chance the center of the storm will be in the highlighted cone at that particular point in time. You don't need to tell me what the cone means...The reason it is bubble, is because a 5 day forecast is prone to numerous errors.

they just started using the lollipops at the end of the projected cones, its so childish tbh

[Stratton23]

UTSARoadRunner4 annoyance? No we are taking it extremely seriously, their could be some real power outage problems coming out of this and wind damage, especially where the core moves on shore, its not an inconvenience like a typical afternoon strong thunderstorm

[capNstorms]

UTSARoadRunner4 annoyance? No we are taking it extremely seriously, their could be some real power outage problems coming out of this and wind damage, especially where the core moves on shore, its not an inconvenience like a typical afternoon strong thunderstorm

the underestimation with this one is going to be relentless...

[Frank P]

5 mb drop in 4 hours

[Steve]

In Lumberton North of Beaumont and got some feeder bands earlier pretty heavy. Then the Sun now thunder in the distance. We are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. We shall see.

Expect it imho. You’ll be close to the center of circulation as it’s coming up. A few miles east or west will make a difference.

Lived here my whole. Going on 60 and we are prepped and ready. Been through Rita, Ike and Harvey and all the littles in between. We got this on this one. Thanks so much.

For sure. You know what’s up. Gonna be some surprised people though as we both know.

[IsabelaWeather]

For Gulf Hurricane Enthusiasts, Beryl is a bummer…for now…

For SE Texans, Beryl is an annoyance since this is another wind and rainfall event they have to deal with.

For South & Central Texans, Beryl is a tease. We need more rain.

I get it, I really do. People have been on my butt since I started saying I didn't see the storm organizing much last night. I have seen this many times where a storm just can't recover. I even have a vested interest in the storm bringing a lot of damage at landfall. People just can't put aside what they want to believe to be true.

The storm still looks terrible and has very little time left, I still think it will get better organized before landfall but people were calling for a cat 2 or 3 and saying they wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 4, that just crazy. This is not likely to be a Harvey.

[mpic]

UTSARoadRunner4 annoyance? No we are taking it extremely seriously, their could be some real power outage problems coming out of this and wind damage, especially where the core moves on shore, its not an inconvenience like a typical afternoon strong thunderstorm

Agree100%...much more than an annoyance. More than once, I have lost power for a couple of days along with a month of groceries and no power to run my well in a thunderstorm. Trees play havoc with power lines and I'm surrounded by them.

[sphelps8681]

Expect it imho. You’ll be close to the center of circulation as it’s coming up. A few miles east or west will make a difference.

Lived here my whole. Going on 60 and we are prepped and ready. Been through Rita, Ike and Harvey and all the littles in between. We got this on this one. Thanks so much.

For sure. You know what’s up. Gonna be some surprised people though as we both know.

I shared what I knew. Some close to me know. They call me the Weatherman. LOL. Others that know me really are not understanding. Especially my local mets. O my gosh. They just hug that one model. SMH.

[capNstorms]

For Gulf Hurricane Enthusiasts, Beryl is a bummer…for now…

For SE Texans, Beryl is an annoyance since this is another wind and rainfall event they have to deal with.

For South & Central Texans, Beryl is a tease. We need more rain.

I get it, I really do. People have been on my butt since I started saying I didn't see the storm organizing much last night. I have seen this many times where a storm just can't recover. I even have a vested interest in the storm bringing a lot of damage at landfall. People just can't put aside what they want to believe to be true.

The storm still looks terrible and has very little time left, I still think it will get better organized before landfall but people were calling for a cat 2 or 3 and saying they wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 4, that just crazy. This is not likely to be a Harvey.

no one here is saying cat 4.... hahaha where did you see this? FB?

CAT 1 wind with gust into 90s

with CAT 2 storm surge

is my official Forecast.

Anything more than that we would need to see major intensification overnight.

[loon]

https://imgur.com/a/aOfiHdU

https://imgur.com/a/2niFtpY

Can see Beryl from my couch