ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!
Hope my power does not got out but will hook up my generator if that happens. I hate the storms at night. They really suck. Thanks for everything you do.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
IcyTundra wrote:copano wrote:IcyTundra wrote:
I'm thinking halfway between Sargent and Freeport/Lake Jackson.
That's a pretty big shift at this point
Not really that location is still in the cone as of 10 PM.
True, but pretty far east on the cone, however the track has shifted a mile east of Matagorda ship channel to the eastern side of Matagorda Island so I won't dismiss that projection.
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!
Stay safe Mr. Storms as you live near me. Lol
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Big circulation and windfield still. North of circulation looks to be worst for now.
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
One last note, my generator is coming September 26th. So glad we are getting one. Does not help me now, but hey .lol..
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!
This is going to be a nice change of pace. Usually when storms are in the gulf they end up being stronger than forecast(much of the time), not weaker, but perhaps if this was August or September, this would have have been the case. Incredibly grateful for it though. I heard one Met mentioning that in his opinion, had this went through the channel and remained a hurricane, we would have potentially been talking about a cat 4 storm. What a difference, and in this case blessing a few hundred miles makes. We REALLY lucked out here.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tireman4 wrote:As Beryl is making her approach to the middle Texas coast, I will readily admit, I loathe night/ early morning land falling hurricanes.
Me too! Hard to sleep and you can't see what's going on. Stressful.
Stay safe, everyone!
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Man, stepped away for a while again, surprised to find that radar-wise it doesn’t look a whole lot different. Velocities have certainly jumped up though, lots of 70-80mph bins on the north side now. Was confident this morning Beryl would manage 100mph or so at landfall, but with the repeated failed attempts to close off the eyewall, I’d say 85mph looks like the ceiling now.
Edit to add: Still shouldn’t be taken lightly though, gonna be a rough morning in Houston. Wouldn’t even think about trying to drive in this thing
Edit to add: Still shouldn’t be taken lightly though, gonna be a rough morning in Houston. Wouldn’t even think about trying to drive in this thing
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:If this was August or September, this city would have been in full panic, last minute, evacuation mode.
Yep. Although some people still remember the Rita evac disaster.
I always love seeing your avatar. lol
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Although it’s struggling to consolidate, I’d guess this is a hurricane now. 80-90mph velocities in the NE quad on Houston radar now. Let’s see if recon is seeing any pressure drops
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion
This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hurricane Warning issued.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning
Code: Select all
Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL022024
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
TXZ236-081115-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Matagorda-
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Bay City
- Blessing
- Van Vleck
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
should now be complete. The area remains subject to
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include the
potential for several tornadoes.
- PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
latest tornado situation.
- ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
if a tornado warning is issued.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
- http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
$$
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:Hurricane Warning issued.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warningCode: Select all
Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL022024
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
TXZ236-081115-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Matagorda-
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Bay City
- Blessing
- Van Vleck
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
should now be complete. The area remains subject to
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include the
potential for several tornadoes.
- PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
latest tornado situation.
- ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
if a tornado warning is issued.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
- http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
$$
Wind threat has decreased? I'm tired, what am I missing here?
Nevermind, I see it's Bay City
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Getting very windy. Will be interesting to watch the surge from his location. High tide is a little after sunrise…
https://x.com/icyclone/status/181015869 ... wl1m0Dnbtg
https://x.com/icyclone/status/181015869 ... wl1m0Dnbtg
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Biologist by training, weather enthusiast for life.
Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tireman4 wrote:One last note, my generator is coming September 26th. So glad we are getting one. Does not help me now, but hey .lol..
TWIA insurance paid for my generator after Harvey if that gives you comfort lol.
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- KirbyDude25
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTNT62 KNHC 080358
TCUAT2
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE...
Data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Houston,
Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Beryl is
upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall on the Texas coast.
NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT62 KNHC 080358
TCUAT2
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE...
Data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Houston,
Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Beryl is
upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall on the Texas coast.
NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion
There must be strong radar echoes somewhere, since the Recon data didn't quite support hurricane intensity.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
capNstorms wrote:This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding
"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:capNstorms wrote:This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding
"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?
Man inflation…you know how much a loaf a bread costs now..lol
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