2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1810423917707755552

[aspen]

Beginning to wonder what’s up with the SST anomalies. There has been a lot of SAL lately but wondering if there is something else too causing them to cool.

yeah they've attenuated a bit as the July trades + SAL do their thing. Beware of CDAS as said , it has a cold bias.


Check out EPS: shows a 603dm Bermuda ridge. July is just not a favorable month.

https://i.imgur.com/lxI5IVe.png

I would anticipate SSTs rebounding a bit come August as the African monsoon waxes, though.

We’ll also need to see how that subtropical warm blob evolves as we get into August too. If MDR SSTAs go from “insane” to only “a little warmer than normal” while the blob persists, then we may end up with more MDR stability/wave-breaking issues that previously anticipated. Basically 2022-lite. Enough to put a bit of a cap on this season’s potential, but not enough to limit it to ~100 (+/-20) ACE.

[WiscoWx02]

I’m really in an odd position with how I feel about this hurricane season…Beryl just happened, the earliest category 5 on record which honestly screams to me busy season, yet the amount of season canceling still persisting and a lot of talk about how the Atlantic really isn’t all that favorable after all makes me lean the other way. There are plenty of valid reasons why this season could actually flop to a certain extent but after Beryl…lots of mixed signals.

[Teban54]

Another thing with the "Newfoundland warm blob" IMO is that those temperatures can fluctuate much more easily than the MDR, as the waters are much shallower. It's probably why the blob went from below normal to off-the-charts in a month or so, while the MDR only dropped by 0.6C in anomalies.

[Hurricane2022]

[LAF92]

I’m really in an odd position with how I feel about this hurricane season…Beryl just happened, the earliest category 5 on record which honestly screams to me busy season, yet the amount of season canceling still persisting and a lot of talk about how the Atlantic really isn’t all that favorable after all makes me lean the other way. There are plenty of valid reasons why this season could actually flop to a certain extent but after Beryl…lots of mixed signals.

https://x.com/drrickknabb/status/181044 ... 5AKya8Pkyw

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imageshack.com/i/poe9RCllg

That warm blob seems to have greatly increased in strength by around mid-June.

But if it were to be detrimental for TC activity as some other users argue in favor of, then how did we get Beryl to happen in the first place? Shouldn't there have been way more wave-breaking problems? Hmm...

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m really in an odd position with how I feel about this hurricane season…Beryl just happened, the earliest category 5 on record which honestly screams to me busy season, yet the amount of season canceling still persisting and a lot of talk about how the Atlantic really isn’t all that favorable after all makes me lean the other way. There are plenty of valid reasons why this season could actually flop to a certain extent but after Beryl…lots of mixed signals.

https://x.com/drrickknabb/status/181044 ... 5AKya8Pkyw

I like the comment below his post that says along the lines of “this won’t be 2005, only 2017 on steroids” as if that isn’t worse.

[IcyTundra]

I’m really in an odd position with how I feel about this hurricane season…Beryl just happened, the earliest category 5 on record which honestly screams to me busy season, yet the amount of season canceling still persisting and a lot of talk about how the Atlantic really isn’t all that favorable after all makes me lean the other way. There are plenty of valid reasons why this season could actually flop to a certain extent but after Beryl…lots of mixed signals.

https://x.com/drrickknabb/status/181044 ... 5AKya8Pkyw

I like the comment below his post that says along the lines of “this won’t be 2005, only 2017 on steroids” as if that isn’t worse.

I had to block that guy on twitter he is always saying some outrageous things.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also looks like good ol' Alex Boreham from cyclonicwx.com gave his take on that warm blob.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1810471271932502241

[WiscoWx02]

Also looks like good ol' Alex Boreham from cyclonicwx.com gave his take on that warm blob.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1810471271932502241

Alex is an awesome guy, always love to hear his input and I respect his opinions greatly. I think his response is perfect…it is hard to say if this warm blob will have a say in how this season goes. I read the thread of responses a little further and a good point is brought up…think of 2022. Season canceling was so rampant by September because of the term “wave breaking” and all of that. Yet we had Earl, Fiona, Ian, Julia, Lisa, Martin, Nicole…heck for how unfavorable the Atlantic was that year, it sure didn’t go down without a fight. So if 2022 was able to do it, this season sure as heck could be very busy.

[Emmett_Brown]

The thing that sticks out to me is how quiet the other basins are; while the Atlantic just casually produced a Cat 5 last week. It seems like the background state is primed for a busy Atlantic season regardless of daily variances in SSTs, etc.

[toad strangler]

Posted in the Expert forecast thread too.



Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2024* Average for 1991-2020
Named Storms 25 14.4
Named Storm Days 120 69.4
Hurricanes 12 7.2
Hurricane Days 50 27.0
Major Hurricanes 6 3.2
Major Hurricane Days 16 7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 230 123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 140 73

*CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2024 on Thursday, April 4th, and an updated forecast on July 9th.

We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.


Complete forecast https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf

[SFLcane]

Posted in the Expert forecast thread too.



Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2024* Average for 1991-2020
Named Storms 25 14.4
Named Storm Days 120 69.4
Hurricanes 12 7.2
Hurricane Days 50 27.0
Major Hurricanes 6 3.2
Major Hurricane Days 16 7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 230 123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 140 73

*CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2024 on Thursday, April 4th, and an updated forecast on July 9th.

We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.


Complete forecast https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf

Phil k has been doing this for 30+ yrs unless something goes wrong i have no doupt this will be an extremely active season hope away from land. Use these next 2-3 weeks wisely to get prepared!

[SFLcane]

Certainly agree with mark here as a nation we are surely not ready for the incoming nightmare that could be looming.

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1810690712217833821

[zzzh]

Over the
past month, trade winds across the tropical Atlantic have been weaker than normal, while
they have been stronger than normal in the subtropical eastern Atlantic, which has led to
anomalous cooling extending from Cabo Verde to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula
(Figure 27). Stronger trade winds lead to more evaporation and mixing, favoring
anomalous cooling. Eastern subtropical Atlantic SST anomalies are important in that
when the subtropical Atlantic cools relative to the tropical Atlantic, it can cause an
increased tropical-subtropical temperature gradient that favors increased tropical uppertropospheric trough activity and associated increased shear.

The blob is not really an issue as the correlation with activity in that reason is low. But the blob is responsible for the strong trades over Canary Current, which correlates with the season activity.

[Teban54]

Over the
past month, trade winds across the tropical Atlantic have been weaker than normal, while
they have been stronger than normal in the subtropical eastern Atlantic, which has led to
anomalous cooling extending from Cabo Verde to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula
(Figure 27). Stronger trade winds lead to more evaporation and mixing, favoring
anomalous cooling. Eastern subtropical Atlantic SST anomalies are important in that
when the subtropical Atlantic cools relative to the tropical Atlantic, it can cause an
increased tropical-subtropical temperature gradient that favors increased tropical uppertropospheric trough activity and associated increased shear.

The blob is not really an issue as the correlation with activity in that reason is low. But the blob is responsible for the strong trades over Canary Current, which correlates with the season activity.

However, long-range forecasts of shear from the ECMWF and other climate models still predict reduced shear across the Main Development Region for the next several months.

Figure 28 shows the forecast for the next four weeks of low-level winds across the Atlantic. The stronger trade winds in the subtropical eastern Atlantic look to relent somewhat. In general, trade winds are forecast to be weaker than average across the tropical Atlantic, indicating that extremely warm SST anomalies are likely to continue. Overall, the current SST anomaly pattern correlates well with the July SST pattern that is typically seen in active Atlantic hurricane seasons (Figure 29).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1810691126887600222

[Category5Kaiju]

How much you want to bet there’s going to be a high end Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 Cape Verde hurricane that makes its way to the western Atlantic once this next favorable MJO phase occurs late this month-early August?

[MississippiWx]

In years that are very active/hyperactive, the MJO has ways of gravitating back to the Atlantic quicker than expected. It will be interesting to see if that is the case here.