WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W.INVEST

WP, 92, 2024071700, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1387E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

92W INVEST 240717 0000 10.2N 138.7E WPAC 15 0

[1900hurricane]

Looks like we're on our way towards tropical cyclogenesis.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 190100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190100Z-190600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.8N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 759 NM
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (05-15KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) IS LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. FORMATIVE CLOUD
BANDS WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MADE EVIDENT BY THE CIRRUS
FILAMENTS FLOWING IN EITHER DIRECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KT), POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND PARA 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/IPTCWCDirector/status/1814097374135861334

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 190000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.4N 133.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WNW SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like we're (finally) going to see something interesting to track outside the NATL. Good chances of this becoming a STY.

[1900hurricane]

Maybe we can soon end my tropical depression (says the guy who got literally hit by a hurricane a week and a half ago).

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1814079939312034071

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1N 119.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-15KTS)
VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 133.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 190416Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15KT), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Double TCFA

WTPN22 PGTW 190930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190921Z JUL 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
190930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 133.2E TO 16.4N 127.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190900Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 865
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190416Z GMI 89 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT CELL NEAR 23N
142E. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) WITH
WARM SST VALUES (30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION.
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION PHASE, WITH INCREASING
SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0E.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[Hayabusa]

It will be about 1 year since 05W (Doksuri) that formed on a similar location.
Doksuri thread

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎191200
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD ‎
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎191200UTC ‎13.7N ‎131.7E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎1006HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎201200UTC ‎15.9N ‎129.1E ‎70NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎211200UTC ‎17.3N ‎127.0E ‎110NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎992HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
72HF ‎ ‎221200UTC ‎18.2N ‎126.3E ‎140NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
96HF ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎21.4N ‎125.9E ‎180NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎970HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎070KT
GUST ‎ ‎100KT
120HF ‎241200UTC ‎24.9N ‎125.2E ‎240NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎955HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎080KT
GUST ‎ ‎115KT ‎=

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AnthonyDuarte03/status/1814316992377037029

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/1814335139134210398

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 05W.

WP, 05, 2024071918, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1300E, 25, 1003, TD

[Hurricane2022]

JTWC upgrades to TD 05W.

WP, 05, 2024071918, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1300E, 25, 1003, TD

Will be Gaemi or Prapiroon?

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Organizing fast.

[ElectricStorm]

900mb HWRF run Not sure I buy this one going sub 900 but we'll see. HAFS peaks at 922mb but winds only in the lower end Cat 4 range. With current JTWC forecasted peak at 105kts, I think a low-mid range Cat 4 is possible