2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1814975644842721729

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1814975644842721729?s=46

Its getting there but that still looks like mostly Eastern pacific. Still another 2/3 weeks or so before the Atlantic wakes up.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1814975644842721729?s=46

Its getting there but that still looks like mostly Eastern pacific. Still another 2/3 weeks or so before the Atlantic wakes up.

That graphic portrays 16 to 23 days. That is 2-3 weeks.

[chaser1]

Say what you will about SAL but I see a disturbance way way way off to the east LOL, around 8N 18 W that is showing some "torq" and is fronting a clean moist surge moving off the African coast. Of course, it would just go "poof" in most years..........

[BobHarlem]

joe posted a typically non-public long range run (360 hour) on the 0z euro with something big in the Gulf. Wouldn't read much into this, nothing on the GFS.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1815378198370140273




(Image from Joe B's tweet, 960mb low)


Tidbits does have the ensembles out that far, i.e.



(12z euro ensembles also shows it)

The 960mb area manifests from the Bahamas and goes through the Florida Straits. Seen on this frame of the 0z Euro north of Puerto Rico:


12z gfs has whatever this is well east of the Carolinas here


CMC has it moving into the Bahamas last frame


12z Icon has it a good ways NE of Barbados at the last frame on the 180 hour mark, but also interestingly spikes it up a little before then this Sunday.

Basically something maybe for week 1 in August. Or at least a bears watching for long range shenanigans.

[Steve]

Japanese and Australian models want Phase 1 in about a week. JMAN only goes out so far, but corrected bias Australian (BOMM) is showing a move into Phases 2 and 3 from 5th through 17th. Certainly the first or second week of August makes sense to have a near-in system if the MJO models are correct or close.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Stratton23]

ConvergenceZone July is usually quiet even in busy hurricane season, so just one storm in Beryl doesn’t imply that august is going to be quiet because its definitely not, no the verdict is out, it will be an active season, thats not even a question anymore, and we wont be waiting until the last week of august for things to pick up, MJO moves into a favorable phase across the atlantic at the beginning of the 2nd week of august, its about to get very active, its just a question of where the storms go, not if they form

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone July is usually quiet even in busy hurricane season, so just one storm in Beryl doesn’t imply that august is going to be quiet because its definitely not, no the verdict is out, it will be an active season, thats not even a question anymore, and we wont be waiting until the last week of august for things to pick up, MJO moves into a favorable phase across the atlantic at the beginning of the 2nd week of august, its about to get very active, its just a question of where the storms go, not if they form

I agree with part of what you say, but we still can't say for sure it will be active. Even hurricane experts have mentioned in some of their tweets that they aren't even sure. There are so many ingredients that need to come together at the right time for tropical disturbances to form, and we won't have proof of that happening until it happens. I wish I the weather channel still had the article up, but they had an excellent article about 3 to 4 weeks talking about what would prevent the season from being as active as predicted, and they listed about 4 or 5 different things. Unfortunately I didn't read it through, just skimmed through it. If I somehow find the cache version I'll link it.

[Hurricane2022]

ConvergenceZone July is usually quiet even in busy hurricane season, so just one storm in Beryl doesn’t imply that august is going to be quiet because its definitely not, no the verdict is out, it will be an active season, thats not even a question anymore, and we wont be waiting until the last week of august for things to pick up, MJO moves into a favorable phase across the atlantic at the beginning of the 2nd week of august, its about to get very active, its just a question of where the storms go, not if they form

I agree with part of what you say, but we still can't say for sure it will be active. Even hurricane experts have mentioned in some of their tweets that they aren't even sure. There are so many ingredients that need to come together at the right time for tropical disturbances to form, and we won't have proof of that happening until it happens. I wish I the weather channel still had the article up, but they had an excellent article about 3 to 4 weeks talking about what would prevent the season from being as active as predicted, and they listed about 4 or 5 different things. Unfortunately I didn't read it through, just skimmed through it. If I somehow find the cache version I'll link it.

Sorry, but I think I'm on the fence about your argument.

 we still can't say for sure it will be active.

Here you leave in check the predictions that say that 2024 will be Hyperactive or Active? Now, in short, almost ALL current forecasts indicate that 2024 should arrive on November 30th with at least 160 - 170 ACE points and 20 NS.

Even hurricane experts have mentioned in some of their tweets that they aren't even sure.

So far, I also haven't seen anyone commenting on whether or not 2024 will be an active season, but rather how active it will be.

[weeniepatrol]

ConvergenceZone July is usually quiet even in busy hurricane season, so just one storm in Beryl doesn’t imply that august is going to be quiet because its definitely not, no the verdict is out, it will be an active season, thats not even a question anymore, and we wont be waiting until the last week of august for things to pick up, MJO moves into a favorable phase across the atlantic at the beginning of the 2nd week of august, its about to get very active, its just a question of where the storms go, not if they form

I agree with part of what you say, but we still can't say for sure it will be active. Even hurricane experts have mentioned in some of their tweets that they aren't even sure. There are so many ingredients that need to come together at the right time for tropical disturbances to form, and we won't have proof of that happening until it happens. I wish I the weather channel still had the article up, but they had an excellent article about 3 to 4 weeks talking about what would prevent the season from being as active as predicted, and they listed about 4 or 5 different things. Unfortunately I didn't read it through, just skimmed through it. If I somehow find the cache version I'll link it.

Hard disagree. All agencies.. CSU and NOAA.. have repeatedly emphasized that their forecasts are higher confidence than usual. Season always becomes active around late August.

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone July is usually quiet even in busy hurricane season, so just one storm in Beryl doesn’t imply that august is going to be quiet because its definitely not, no the verdict is out, it will be an active season, thats not even a question anymore, and we wont be waiting until the last week of august for things to pick up, MJO moves into a favorable phase across the atlantic at the beginning of the 2nd week of august, its about to get very active, its just a question of where the storms go, not if they form

I agree with part of what you say, but we still can't say for sure it will be active. Even hurricane experts have mentioned in some of their tweets that they aren't even sure. There are so many ingredients that need to come together at the right time for tropical disturbances to form, and we won't have proof of that happening until it happens. I wish I the weather channel still had the article up, but they had an excellent article about 3 to 4 weeks talking about what would prevent the season from being as active as predicted, and they listed about 4 or 5 different things. Unfortunately I didn't read it through, just skimmed through it. If I somehow find the cache version I'll link it.

Hard disagree. All agencies.. CSU and NOAA.. have repeatedly emphasized that their forecasts are higher confidence than usual. Season always becomes active around late August.

we will see now won't we I"m a I'll believe it when I see it type of person. Also remember that if it was that easy to predict, then the NHC would have a 100% accuracy with their forecasts they put out early in the year. And we know, they miss ALOT. I'm sure they know that as well. But we will know soon..

[Teban54]

With that said, the verdict of course is still out whether or not this will be an active season or not. Sometimes the prediction center gets it right and sometimes they get it wrong. Pretty much 50 / 50 at this point.

If we're really playing the game of "coin flip probabilities"... How about we consider three cases: Forecasts being right, busting too high, and busting too low (which you didn't consider)? With that logic, you'd have 33 / 33 / 33 chances for each of the three cases.

Remember, forecasts busting too low can always happen; CSU's ACE forecast actually busted too low for 5 years straight during the 2015-19 period. Such an outcome might seem unlikely or unfathomable this year given that current forecasts are already much higher than usual, but even then, it remains true that agencies like CSU and NOAA typically issue their forecasts at the average or most likely values. This means that in theory, they think their forecasts are just about as likely to bust too high as the other way round.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS






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[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely starting to see the ensembles starting to light up for something in ~10 days or so.

[REDHurricane]

Pre-existing disturbance, anomalously low wind shear, a big patch of warm water... what could possibly go wrong?

[tolakram]

This is showing up on the Euro (Texas), looks like it might spend some time over water.





I put this here because conditions should start to get favorable west to east. I doubt something can develop in 24 to 36 hours.

[AnnularCane]

There's also the obligatory Cat 5 to Miami (well, almost) showing up on the Euro forAug 2, but I don't know how to post these things. I tried.

That's why I don't post on this thread much.


Edit: Thanks, Luis!

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops the wave emerging from Africa now.

[jlauderdal]

There's also the obligatory Cat 5 to Miami (well, almost) showing up on the Euro forAug 2, but I don't know how to post these things. I tried.

That's why I don't post on this thread much.

Thats ok, we dont need to see a picture of that.

Cycloneye has been warning everybody for a week and here we are. The Atlantic reloaded after Beryl under optimal conditions to warm up SST's.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z Euro develops the wave emerging from Africa now.

https://i.imgur.com/tB8AR4i.png

How are you accessing the 12z models? I can only see up to 6z