2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[toad strangler]

For all of you SAL fans out there your game is entering the 4th Q

From Michael Lowry today ......

Why dusty Julys offer little consolation for August and September?
Unfortunately, the amount of dust in June and July is a lousy predictor of seasonal hurricane activity, mainly because the dust falls off so suddenly by August as zesty tropical disturbances roll off Africa.

Sporadic dust outbreaks still happen in August and September and can affect individual systems from time-to-time, but the extent and magnitude of the outbreaks don’t knock down the entire basin as they can do in the early part of the hurricane season.

[jlauderdal]

For all of you SAL fans out there your game is entering the 4th Q

From Michael Lowry today ......

Why dusty Julys offer little consolation for August and September?
Unfortunately, the amount of dust in June and July is a lousy predictor of seasonal hurricane activity, mainly because the dust falls off so suddenly by August as zesty tropical disturbances roll off Africa.

Sporadic dust outbreaks still happen in August and September and can affect individual systems from time-to-time, but the extent and magnitude of the outbreaks don’t knock down the entire basin as they can do in the early part of the hurricane season.
https://i.ibb.co/KXB56Dv/SAL.png

There was dust on my cars and in the pool filter, that doesn't happen every year.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1815907071499591893



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1816082795124470143



3 out of the 4 dusty seasons listed here ended up being hyperactive. The only non-hyperactive season of the bunch had an el nino (2018). All of these years had at least one long tracking major mdr storm.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1815886043889189041

[Category5Kaiju]

Just got a glimpse of wx twitter right now and….wow. Even Beryl couldn’t stop the season cancel posts or the ones that are doubting hyperactivity

[SFLcane]

What you see right now is 100% normal for this of the year its typical to see people even season mets begin to doupt seasonal forecast right about now. Frankly july is just another extension of june in my eyes in a typical yr there is 0 till mid Aug we are just spoiled after 05 which was an extreme anomaly in every sense of the imagination. As dificult as it might for some " like myself" who enjoy tracking tc's patience is a virtue this time of the year. In a year like this when @philklotzbach issued his highest ace ever in the company's existence when the hurricanes do come its going to get ugly for some i have no doubt about that.

[cheezyWXguy]

It would be fun to go back and look at all the season cancel posts from 2017, I may just do that when I get some spare time.

[Cpv17]

What you see right now is 100% normal for this of the year its typical to see people even season mets begin to doupt seasonal forecast right about now. Frankly july is just another extension of june in my eyes in a typical yr there is 0 till mid Aug we are just spoiled after 05 which was an extreme anomaly in every sense of the imagination. As dificult as it might for some " like myself" who enjoy tracking tc's patience is a virtue this time of the year. In a year like this when @philklotzbach issued his highest ace ever in the company's existence when the hurricanes do come its going to get ugly for some i have no doubt about that.

Often times I feel like June is even more active than July.

[jlauderdal]

It would be fun to go back and look at all the season cancel posts from 2017, I may just do that when I get some spare time.

Name names unless im in there.

[AnnularCane]

It would be fun to go back and look at all the season cancel posts from 2017, I may just do that when I get some spare time.

I did that a couple years ago, specifically late July. You may very well enjoy yourself.

2019 might be fun too if I remember correctly.

[Steve]

What you see right now is 100% normal for this of the year its typical to see people even season mets begin to doupt seasonal forecast right about now. Frankly july is just another extension of june in my eyes in a typical yr there is 0 till mid Aug we are just spoiled after 05 which was an extreme anomaly in every sense of the imagination. As dificult as it might for some " like myself" who enjoy tracking tc's patience is a virtue this time of the year. In a year like this when @philklotzbach issued his highest ace ever in the company's existence when the hurricanes do come its going to get ugly for some i have no doubt about that.

Often times I feel like June is even more active than July.

It kind of is.

[WiscoWx02]

I don't think it's going to be long before the Atlantic wakes up at this point. Tropical waves are beginning to make more of a dent in the SAL. Models are also gravitating toward very little TUTT activity by the 2nd week of August, if not sooner, and the African Standing Wave is beginning to gain prevalence again. Also...westerlies in the Atlantic helping to form a nice monsoon trough with embedded converging vortices are a good sign to me that things may be able to get going. Just my observation, could be completely off the mark, we'll see.

[toad strangler]

I don't think it's going to be long before the Atlantic wakes up at this point. Tropical waves are beginning to make more of a dent in the SAL. Models are also gravitating toward very little TUTT activity by the 2nd week of August, if not sooner, and the African Standing Wave is beginning to gain prevalence again. Also...westerlies in the Atlantic helping to form a nice monsoon trough with embedded converging vortices are a good sign to me that things may be able to get going. Just my observation, could be completely off the mark, we'll see.

We are about one week away from the beginning of a major atmospheric regime change in the basin. Not too long after this, the very welcome period of July doldrums will be over. With indicators setting up as very favorable up and down the list, will usher in the basin "bell ringing" much early than the late August timeline. My opinion of course.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I recently noticed something intriguing about 1933; that season was insane for many reasons, but one notable reason is the number of possible retirees that season featured, or at least assuming it used naming lists like we do now. So many places around the Atlantic sustained death and damage from various storms, and upon looking at its history I intensified at least 6 individual storms that would’ve been retired if they had names.

2005 was kind of like this too, and if you count Emily possibly being overshadowed that’s also basically 6 retired names.

Here’s to hoping 2024 doesn’t follow that kind of pattern.

[tolakram]

ACE wise we are ahead of 1933 I think.

[chaser1]

Pretty big amplitude wave that NHC is now looking at approaching 35W. My guess is that they're hedging the 20% chance of development on it's southern axis around 15N in several days. The altocumulus field is pretty large so I don't see anything "fast" occurring, but it certainly is an interesting feature.

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1816973693257404697

[toad strangler]

Morales doing an about face.

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralestv/status/1817217865906327835

[Category5Kaiju]

Morales doing an about face.

https://twitter.com/johnmoralestv/status/1817217865906327835?s=46

I...I don't think that's how it works

[mpic]

Has the ICON picked it up yet?