2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Spacecoast
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#601 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:20 pm

Image
EPS has 5-10% probability of Hurricane 8/6
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#602 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:51 pm

Spacecoast wrote:https://i.ibb.co/WWDkXQY/epa.jpg
EPS has 5-10% probability of Hurricane 8/6


What's the timeframe for the strike %?
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#603 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:00 pm

The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#604 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:03 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks.

As with beryl, best to look at the ensembles for guidance this far out. A decent signal and favorable conditions was enough for them to get something on the map. Euro is still king even though it has had a rough start to the tropical season.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#605 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:03 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:https://i.ibb.co/WWDkXQY/epa.jpg
EPS has 5-10% probability of Hurricane 8/6


What's the timeframe for the strike %?

264H
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#606 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:05 pm

LarryWx operational runs dont mean that much at this range really, ensembles are the more important things to watch for with this wave right now
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#607 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:10 pm

Stratton23 wrote:LarryWx operational runs dont mean that much at this range really, ensembles are the more important things to watch for with this wave right now


He did mention that the 12Z EPS will be important. Larry is an old timer on this forum I think he knows what he is talking about.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#608 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:17 pm

IcyTundra didnt say he doesnt, im just making the point that ensembles are generally going to be more important at this range than any operational run which will have a lot more volatility from run to run, ensembles did a real good job of seeing beryl
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#609 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:23 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:LarryWx operational runs dont mean that much at this range really, ensembles are the more important things to watch for with this wave right now


He did mention that the 12Z EPS will be important. Larry is an old timer on this forum I think he knows what he is talking about.

Good to see real energy back on the board. GFS support and it will be server overload time.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#610 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:26 pm

I find it ironic that the EURO/ EPS are the models aggressive with development while the GFS isn’t enthusiastic about it, when its usually the other way around, guess we will see, but the GFS did have a slightly more sharper wave axis on its 12z run
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#611 Postby Tailgater33 » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:30 pm

Image
That a little surprising
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#612 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:47 pm

12z euro poofs it over Cuba this run.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#613 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:49 pm

12Z EPS: still has members with a TC (~10) but that’s only ~1/2 as many as 0Z had. About 8 of these 10 hit the CONUS from LA around to NC Aug 4-8.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#614 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:50 pm

Euro drops development after the LA's
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#615 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:58 pm

Its still early in the game with this one, im not letting my eye of this until it moves inland somewhere and that wont be for at least 10-12 days
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#616 Postby WaveBreaking » Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:16 pm

Might be the reason why the gfs has been so sluggish with atlantic development recently.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1816965667255373859

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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#617 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:19 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:Might be the reason why the gfs has been so sluggish with atlantic development recently.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1816965667255373859

In the euro we trust, at least for the short term.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#618 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:48 pm

18z GFS with that upper TX coast hit and nowhere to go. Who knows? But ICON pulled off the solo early win with Beryl. That was close to 10 days though (edit GFS @ 10.5 days landfall). Would be big for the gfs if so this far out.

Looks like 959 morning of Tuesday august 6 +/- Orange TX. Foot plus of rain for E TX

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 618&fh=306
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#619 Postby Into The Fog » Fri Jul 26, 2024 9:47 pm

Just keep it out of Texas - we've had enough from the derecho to alberto to beryl and flooding.
We've already gotten a bit over 15 inches of rain since Beryl in Galveston...we could break the rain record for the year 1900 if we get 2.75 inches
more of rain.

Waving the white flag of surrender.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#620 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jul 27, 2024 5:40 am

Into The Fog wrote:Just keep it out of Texas - we've had enough from the derecho to alberto to beryl and flooding.
We've already gotten a bit over 15 inches of rain since Beryl in Galveston...we could break the rain record for the year 1900 if we get 2.75 inches
more of rain.

Waving the white flag of surrender.

GFS has an interesting ride the last day from nada to a major on new orleans and now coming right on the last cycle, hello Tampa. Euro still to the right of the coast. Euro picked up on it earlier but that doesn't mean its right at 9 days. The basin becomes more favorable beyond this system and there are signals for the trailer to do something which isn't a surprise as it will have an even more favorable environment.
Last edited by jlauderdal on Sat Jul 27, 2024 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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