2024 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF now has 2 formidable hurricanes.

[aspen]

GFS, Euro, and CMC are all in agreement showing two substantial hurricanes forming from the 20/70 and second 0/30 AOIs. The latter might have quite a high ceiling, because it looks to form at a much lower latitude and could have a lot more time over some of the warmest waters in the basin than the 20/70 AOI.

Decent chance the EPac finally catches up to the Atlantic’s ACE, especially if those two AOIs become majors.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94E is up

2. Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1818105370931294578

[AzSeca]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1818105370931294578

EPAC last year was fairly subdued.We haven't gotten a good blow up here for years. Ten years ago was quite different and we always had some type of summer action.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1818105370931294578

EPAC last year was fairly subdued.We haven't gotten a good blow up here for years. Ten years ago was quite different and we always had some type of summer action.

With 8 Major Hurricanes last year I wouldn't call it subdued. Even 2022 was fairly active. And don't forget about 2018, just 6 years ago.

[AzSeca]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1818105370931294578

EPAC last year was fairly subdued.We haven't gotten a good blow up here for years. Ten years ago was quite different and we always had some type of summer action.

With 8 Major Hurricanes last year I wouldn't call it subdued. Even 2022 was fairly active. And don't forget about 2018, just 6 years ago.

Sorry, should have qualified that. Subdued for impacting our NOTW with some hot action coming up the Gulf of California or slamming the Baja, then we get those wonderful remnants.

[kevin]

GFS operational runs are slowly trending slightly weaker for the EPAC systems. Still strong hurricanes and probably the most favorable period in the EPAC this season, but no longer the cat 4/5 920 mb systems it had a while ago. Here below the peak intensity of the 3 systems from left to right for the last 5 runs. The most recent run is especially a bit weaker for the 920s/930s mb system, let's see what the trend will be in the coming runs.

06z yesterday: 1006 mb, 949 mb, 926 mb
12z yesterday: 1008 mb, 954 mb, 924 mb
18z yesterday: 1008 mb, 969 mb, 933 mb
00z today: 1006 mb, 974 mb, 933 mb
06z today: 1000 mb, 969 mb, 959 mb

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has Carlotta, Daniel and Emilia.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and recent shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system is showing some
signs of organization. Some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 95E is up for area near 121W at 40%.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a bias towards oversimplification of disturbances within the monsoon trough. Genesis almost always get pushed back on the GFS as a result as the time frame moves down. I also don’t trust a global model to handle inner core dynamics that drive much of the intensity fluctuations at that stage. I do broadly expect a potent hurricane as really all guidance has shown but of at least somewhat shorter duration then what the GFS is depicting (although the GFS is probably too far north in the medium to long range where SSTs are lower).

[cycloneye]

The anticipated big one is starting.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week where environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

The last 3 runs from GFS has another system that has the effect of not intensify to a major the 20/90 one.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.