ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

925mb vorticity at 0900z, take the location with a grain of salt

[Nimbus]

Anybody got educated guesses about where the “center” or lack of one is at this morning? Models need to know which side of Cuba it’s on!

HWRF and HMON still initializing the surface low near Jamaica so confidence is a little low.
Lots of convection visible in the IR that show an elongated mess with a southern lobe.
Can't see this making it to Tampa in 60 hours if the southern lobe becomes dominant though..
11 AM NHC update should be interesting.

[N2FSU]

925mb vorticity at 0900z, take the location with a grain of salt
https://tropicwatch.info/925mb080220240900z.gif

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that suggest the initialization of the GFS is maybe too far north?

[USTropics]

925mb vorticity at 0900z, take the location with a grain of salt
https://tropicwatch.info/925mb080220240900z.gif

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that suggest the initialization of the GFS is maybe too far north?

The mid-level circulation is certainly riding the southern coast of Cuba this morning. From Earthnull, here is the 700mb wind flow + RH shaded:


The upper-level vorticity has remained tilted to the south since yesterday morning as well (green circle is mid-level circulation):

[Blown Away]

Appears to be some weak low level rotation near the NW tip of Haiti... Very disorganized IMO...

[GCANE]

Afternoon popup convection will likely occur along the south shore of Cuba today.
This may relocate the vorts south of where they are forecast to be.
If so, then this may be further west and south once in the GoM.
So, could linger longer and strengthen more than forecast.
A long shot would be that it misses the trof all together.

[BobHarlem]

Watching area on the north side of Cuba, and what looks like the Mid level stuff off the south side. Interesting setup to see where this goes, Cuba is splitting it at the moment, and keeping it from taking off. If south dominates, most models will be thrown off, if it pulls north, it'll probably more likely for many of the models (especially CMC) to verify.


vis with lightning "ring" to help id the MLC.

[xironman]

Afternoon popup convection will likely occur along the south shore of Cuba today.
This may relocate the vorts south of where they are forecast to be.
If so, then this may be further west and south once in the GoM.
So, could linger longer and strengthen more than forecast.
A long shot would be that it misses the trof all together.

I don't know, looking at the low cloud movement it might migrating north toward the heavy convection.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave
is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then
emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Beven

[tolakram]

Floater is over this now

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Teban54]

It certainly seems to my amateur eyes that the system wants to consolidate south of Cuba, and now there's even just as much convection to the south of the island as there is to the north.

[cycloneye]

Best Track over Cuba.

AL, 97, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 756W, 25, 1012, DB

[NDG]

My thoughts this morning.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1819351266612429155

[BobHarlem]

12z Best track seems like a split the difference position between the MLC on the south and the Convection to the north, I bet this changes for 18z.

Good setup for the the wave equivalent of wobble watching today between that area and the area to the south, to see if the south area pulls up toward there and the circulations align or not.

[TBwx1968]

My thoughts this morning.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1819351266612429155

Definitely some turning there. Probably multiple weak vorts within the envelope. Which one, if any, win out.

[aspen]

Looks like this morning’s runs are favoring the scenario where 97L remains weak in the Gulf, crosses Florida, and hangs around the East Coast for a bit. It seems to be exiting the scene a lot faster than yesterday’s runs that showed a similar scenario, which’ll reduce (but obviously not eliminate) the
extent of flooding rains and rip currents around FL/GA/SC.

[tropicwatch]

It appears that the southern circulation is becoming better organized. Out flow to the north is looking good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some sort of center developing south of Cuba.

A lot of convection firing off here.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1819349270149190002

[REDHurricane]

Wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some sort of center developing south of Cuba.

A lot of convection firing off here.

https://i.imgur.com/lkQpukC.jpeg

This could be huge since both GEFS and EPS are initializing the system pretty significantly to the north; neither ensemble has any members showing that the current CoC is just off the coast of SE Cuba. I'm guessing that a nasty Gulf storm gets more probable the further to the south it stays and thus the more time it will have to take advantage of the boiling Gulf but who knows anymore with this setup, almost nothing would really surprise me at this point