Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024
While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears
rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded
over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a
GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized
inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82
kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this
advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to
a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass.
Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated
at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta
expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading
over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the
end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will
turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow.
The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and
the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory.
The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and
light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and
the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or
Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26
C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled
with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air,
should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened
by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will
likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5
time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the
consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than
the prior NHC intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024
While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears
rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded
over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a
GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized
inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82
kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this
advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to
a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass.
Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated
at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta
expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading
over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the
end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will
turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow.
The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and
the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory.
The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and
light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and
the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or
Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26
C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled
with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air,
should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened
by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will
likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5
time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the
consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than
the prior NHC intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
