ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

I now count 2, maybe 3 VHTs over the center.

With an Anti-Cyclone directly overhead, RI is not out of the question

[tropicwatch]

Looking like Debby is trying to tighten up.

[Zonacane]

I don't know why people are prognosticating a weaker storm, this has 2 days, more than enough time.

You can just go by what you know. No one has said it’s gonna be weak. But Cat 2 is probably the ceiling if it behaves as most models think. We all know intensity is the hardest and thus far most elusive thing to forecast. But here you go:

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

That assumes the minimum definition for RI is met until the storm makes landfall. Given record-breaking SST and a perfect upper-level environment, I fear that would be on the low side.

[Zonacane]

I now count 2, maybe 3 VHTs over the center.

Getting close to a hurricane if I had to guess. The structure is there for it.

[GCANE]

PV Streamer to Debby's NW is rapidly deteriorating. Once gone, Debby will have a much greater chance for rapid development.

[underthwx]

Heyy yall....I wish yall the best thruout the cyclone....is Debby similar to Beryl?.....it just seems like a similar intensity setup?....

[Steve]

I don't know why people are prognosticating a weaker storm, this has 2 days, more than enough time.

You can just go by what you know. No one has said it’s gonna be weak. But Cat 2 is probably the ceiling if it behaves as most models think. We all know intensity is the hardest and thus far most elusive thing to forecast. But here you go:

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

That assumes the minimum definition for RI is met until the storm makes landfall. Given record-breaking SST and a perfect upper-level environment, I fear that would be on the low side.

We were discussing in the models thread earlier. Lowest I can find is NAM 3km gets it to 983 and NAM 3km has twice (I think Harvey and maybe Idalia) gone sub 900 for comedy sake. So if it’s the lowest pressure you have to correct the bias. That doesn’t mean that if randomly it stalled out or pulled west of 84 and sat over the Gulf it couldn’t get stronger. But if it’s heading into Taylor or Dixie Counties, Cat 3 is the upper limit for anything in recorded weather history. Again we had that last year, 74 years ago in 1950 and 128 years ago with the Cedar Key storm. Most indications are that it’s going to landfall around there. If it’s farther west say Franklin, Gulf or Bay County it’s a different outcome.

[Jr0d]

Sand Key Lighthouse(8 miles SSW of Key West) is getting sustained tropical storm force winds, graph is for max 1 minute sustained winds.

Pressure is also down to 1006.9mb also. This is about 100 miles away from the center.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[GCANE]

Last microwave sounder shows a good cold pool directly below the warm core.
Good core structure to allow intensification.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[TomballEd]

I am not at all sure Debby is moving at 13 knots. I'm seeing maybe half that speed (I didn't measure lat long but I know what 13 knot forward motion should look like

[Hurricane2022]

I think Recon will find 55 kt FL/997 extrap

[DunedinDave]

It’s amazing just the last 3 years alone how many storms have been coming from western Cuba and targeting anywhere between the Big Bend to Fort Myers.

Elsa, Ian, Idalia, now Debby. Lived here a long time and it used to be one every 5-10 years usually you’d get these tracks. Happening a lot lately. Somehow Tampa dead smack in the middle and always seems to keep dodging the bullet which is crazy.

[caneman]

Old girl is ramping. That's clear to see. Florida storms are different.

[KirbyDude25]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1819881474897625579

[caneman]

It’s amazing just the last 3 years alone how many storms have been coming from western Cuba and targeting anywhere between the Big Bend to Fort Myers.

Elsa, Ian, Idalia, now Debby. Lived here a long time and it used to be one every 5-10 years usually you’d get these tracks. Happening a lot lately. Somehow Tampa dead smack in the middle and always seems to keep dodging the bullet which is crazy.

Dodging as far as direct hits but not affects.

[Zonacane]

You can just go by what you know. No one has said it’s gonna be weak. But Cat 2 is probably the ceiling if it behaves as most models think. We all know intensity is the hardest and thus far most elusive thing to forecast. But here you go:

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

That assumes the minimum definition for RI is met until the storm makes landfall. Given record-breaking SST and a perfect upper-level environment, I fear that would be on the low side.

We were discussing in the models thread earlier. Lowest I can find is NAM 3km gets it to 983 and NAM 3km has twice (I think Harvey and maybe Idalia) gone sub 900 for comedy sake. So if it’s the lowest pressure you have to correct the bias. That doesn’t mean that if randomly it stalled out or pulled west of 84 and sat over the Gulf it couldn’t get stronger. But if it’s heading into Taylor or Dixie Counties, Cat 3 is the upper limit for anything in recorded weather history. Again we had that last year, 74 years ago in 1950 and 128 years ago with the Cedar Key storm. Most indications are that it’s going to landfall around there. If it’s farther west say Franklin, Gulf or Bay County it’s a different outcome.

The storm is outperforming the short-term intensity guidance. Climatology is nice and all, but is not a solid predictor of Debby's intensity at landfall. Again, record SST and a pristine upper-level environment are a bad combination and suggest this storm is capable of significant overperformance of your priors.

[LandoWill]

Old girl is ramping. That's clear to see. Florida storms are different.

for us here, and you, glad it went west. Florida gulf storms without shear, go crazy - so muggy and hot this time of year

[aspen]

I think Recon will find 55 kt FL/997 extrap

I doubt it’s that high already. Maybe a 45 kt TS at most. It still needs to consolidate its broad MLC before any significant intensification can start.

[caneman]

Old girl is ramping. That's clear to see. Florida storms are different.

for us here, and you, glad it went west. Florida gulf storms without shear, go crazy - so muggy and hot this time of year

The Gulf this time of year I write of no possibilities!!! I mean none!

[Hurricane2022]

I think Recon will find 55 kt FL/997 extrap

I doubt it’s that high already. Maybe a 45 kt TS at most. It still needs to consolidate its broad MLC before any significant intensification can start.

55 kt FL is equal to 45 kt at surface, right?