WeatherBoy2000 wrote:We could still be a couple weeks away from storms popping off left and right, but we currently have what will likely be a long tracking hurricane on deck, that's definitely not nothing. I just want to point out that Danny Morris is not a met, and there's a comment already here detailing the flaws in his analysis. The only thing I'm doubtful on is the number of storms that may form, I feel we're in for a season more like 2017 with plenty of strong hurricanes and ace but not an excessive amount of storms. The 20+ storm count forecasts may come up short.
He does have a point about the monsoon trough (The configuration is the same one that's been allowing, increasingly, early-season MDR activity) but I don't even see the wavebreaking--all the shear, all of it, is out of the east and southeast, resulting from the stronger than usual monsoon.
If wavebreaking were an issue (as it was in July/early August 2023 for instance), we would have had at least one system form in the subtropics from a trough or cutoff low by this point.
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