2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive.

Why are people thinking the basin may not be active by September 11 when it's still only August 11?

[ElectricStorm]

Make sure you remember that it is 11 August. Take a deep breath or two; there WILL be hurricanes and soon whether guidance shows it or not.

That's true, but I can understand where people are coming from when you look at the EXTREMELY bullish number of storms forecasted. I don't think it's a big deal as much now, but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive. I'm seeing tweets from various meteorologists saying the same thing. I think we will know for sure whether the high numbers will stand by the end of the first week of September.

I mean there is a reason bell ringing day is 8/20, early-mid August still isn't always super favorable for the Atlantic. The fact we've already had one major and could get another with PTC 5 before 8/20 is quite the start. Seems to me like we're well on our way to a hyperactive season. I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the expert forecasts at this time.

Plus it seems like some people on Twitter (and here sometimes, but mostly Twitter) are quick to start doubting the season as soon as we don't get constant 2020-like activity.

[ConvergenceZone]

but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive.

Why are people thinking the basin may not be active by September 11 when it's still only August 11?

Nobody is saying that. Met TxStorm just make an excellent point that it would need to start being active by the first week of September if it's going to hit the numbers put out by the NHC. This was brought on by the models not showing anything in the extended outlook. And it can still be active, and not hit the forecasted numbers, that's still a very real possibility.

[Hammy]

Make sure you remember that it is 11 August. Take a deep breath or two; there WILL be hurricanes and soon whether guidance shows it or not.

That's true, but I can understand where people are coming from when you look at the EXTREMELY bullish number of storms forecasted. I don't think it's a big deal as much now, but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive. I'm seeing tweets from various meteorologists saying the same thing. I think we will know for sure whether the high numbers will stand by the end of the first week of September.

I mean there is a reason bell ringing day is 8/20, early-mid August still isn't always super favorable for the Atlantic. The fact we've already had one major and could get another with PTC 5 before 8/20 is quite the start. Seems to me like we're well on our way to a hyperactive season. I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the expert forecasts at this time.

Plus it seems like some people on Twitter (and here sometimes, but mostly Twitter) are quick to start doubting the season as soon as we don't get constant 2020-like activity.

It's literally going to take 2020-like activity to meet the forecast numbers though, which is why most people are doubting them. Something like 2010 or 2017 is a more likely outcome at this stage.

[Stratton23]

At this point it wont matter if its a hyper active season or not, even something similar to 2017 would be really bad, hence harvey and Irma, could be more of a quality vs quantity season

[jlauderdal]

Make sure you remember that it is 11 August. Take a deep breath or two; there WILL be hurricanes and soon whether guidance shows it or not.

That's true, but I can understand where people are coming from when you look at the EXTREMELY bullish number of storms forecasted. I don't think it's a big deal as much now, but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive. I'm seeing tweets from various meteorologists saying the same thing. I think we will know for sure whether the high numbers will stand by the end of the first week of September.

I mean there is a reason bell ringing day is 8/20, early-mid August still isn't always super favorable for the Atlantic. The fact we've already had one major and could get another with PTC 5 before 8/20 is quite the start. Seems to me like we're well on our way to a hyperactive season. I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the expert forecasts at this time.

Plus it seems like some people on Twitter (and here sometimes, but mostly Twitter) are quick to start doubting the season as soon as we don't get constant 2020-like activity.

CSU and many others, including myself(s2k poll), put a number out; CSU and NOAA make a deal about their seasonal forecasts, although what does it really change other than give the media and others a talking point? When you look at the math, the 240H models which gets us to aug 22 and its looking like a miss to me on the high end.

However, and this is where seasonal forecasts have minimal use IMO, the hurricanes that hit land are the important ones if you are affected. We dont need a slow or hyperactive season for that to happen. It will pick up, climatology and the setup tells us that but where it hits is what really matters. Also, ACE is probably a better number to look at regarding the actual season and its "production".

[cycloneye]

That's true, but I can understand where people are coming from when you look at the EXTREMELY bullish number of storms forecasted. I don't think it's a big deal as much now, but if it's not INCREDIBLY active during the first week of September, those incredibly high numbers forecasted are not going to jive. I'm seeing tweets from various meteorologists saying the same thing. I think we will know for sure whether the high numbers will stand by the end of the first week of September.

I mean there is a reason bell ringing day is 8/20, early-mid August still isn't always super favorable for the Atlantic. The fact we've already had one major and could get another with PTC 5 before 8/20 is quite the start. Seems to me like we're well on our way to a hyperactive season. I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the expert forecasts at this time.

Plus it seems like some people on Twitter (and here sometimes, but mostly Twitter) are quick to start doubting the season as soon as we don't get constant 2020-like activity.

CSU and many others, including myself(s2k poll), put a number out; CSU and NOAA make a deal about their seasonal forecasts, although what does it really change other than give the media and others a talking point? When you look at the math, the 240H models which gets us to aug 22 and its looking like a miss to me on the high end.

However, and this is where seasonal forecasts have minimal use IMO, the hurricanes that hit land are the important ones if you are affected. We dont need a slow or hyperactive season for that to happen. It will pick up, climatology and the setup tells us that but where it hits is what really matters. Also, ACE is probably a better number to look at regarding the actual season and its "production".

Yes, those three letters are a high signal of how a season is doing in terms of accummulating energy. Looks like this season may be quality and with less quantity.

[WaveBreaking]

For the past few gfs runs, there’s been a signal of one of the waves after PTC5 getting into the GOM and developing near the end of August. This is VERY far out in the runs, but I find interesting that 1) it’s been consistently showing up and 2) the gfs keeps developing the same wave. Again, VERY far out in the runs.

[Steve]

Although most of the models don't show activity beyond Ernesto, the CMC now has a low in the central Atlantic 10 days out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=240

As per the clip on the indicators thread by Michael Lowery, just look at the MJO from some of the better models.

NCEP (GEFS)


JMA


BOMM (Bias-corrected Australian)


EC (51 members)


Phase 2 is indicative of systems in the Gulf, EPAC (close to the coast) and just east of North America which would cover Ernesto. But if we're going to be in Phase 2 or 3 for most of the rest of the month, you'd have to assume there will be other named systems. Phase 4 isn't an active phase for US landfalls though there have been some over the years. But look for it to shortcut back across the circle toward 8 if it does in fact make it to Phase 4 and doesn't sit around in 2/3.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The EPS/GEFS shows things starting to crank up around the 25th.

[MarioProtVI]

The EPS/GEFS shows things starting to crank up around the 25th.

Where? Can’t see it

[Stratton23]

GEFS sorta has a weak signal for development near the yucatan in the 10–11 day range, thats the first sign of “ life” ive seen in the ensembles lol

[Kingarabian]

Although most of the models don't show activity beyond Ernesto, the CMC now has a low in the central Atlantic 10 days out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=240

As per the clip on the indicators thread by Michael Lowery, just look at the MJO from some of the better models.

NCEP (GEFS)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

JMA
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/JMAN.png

BOMM (Bias-corrected Australian)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/BOMM_BC.png

EC (51 members)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF.png

Phase 2 is indicative of systems in the Gulf, EPAC (close to the coast) and just east of North America which would cover Ernesto. But if we're going to be in Phase 2 or 3 for most of the rest of the month, you'd have to assume there will be other named systems. Phase 4 isn't an active phase for US landfalls though there have been some over the years. But look for it to shortcut back across the circle toward 8 if it does in fact make it to Phase 4 and doesn't sit around in 2/3.

Great breakdown. I agree, during active seasons, systems can develop regardless of MJO place as well.

[TallyTracker]

Models didn’t really start to sniff out Ernesto until about a week ago. We seem to get fewer false alarms than we used to. The sensory window also seems to be about a week out for reasonably accurate development chances.

I think we may not get more development this week, but I do think at least 2-3 more storms will form this month. The models may not start to show them for a few days yet.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles are starting to see the flip now, little more activity showing up

[zzzh]

Models didn’t really start to sniff out Ernesto until about a week ago. We seem to get fewer false alarms than we used to. The sensory window also seems to be about a week out for reasonably accurate development chances.

I think we may not get more development this week, but I do think at least 2-3 more storms will form this month. The models may not start to show them for a few days yet.

EPS had a decent signal for Ernesto nearly 15 days out

[zzzh]

The next wave to watch.

[Steve]

12z AI EC has two trailer storms moving toward the islands at day 15. They are configured like the symbol for infinity.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81312&fh=6

[Stratton23]

Both the Euro and GFS have a piece of energy breaking off from an approaching front in the 10 day range , this energy gets out over the gulf south of louisiana, both don’t develop , but worth watching as they have some decent spin at the 850 mb levels

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The times we've seen the "big" TC outbreaks, I've never seen the models accurately predict them 10 days out.