2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

0z GFS (operational) shows a 1006 mb TS in the far eastern MDR at 90 hrs, that moves NNE (lol) and dissipates quickly. The 3 prior runs all seem to show a closed low, with the system getting better organized each run. The ceiling still seems quite low, though.

[Stratton23]

Until we get any sort of consistency in the operational models, ensemble guidance is the way to go, the OP modes are very clearly struggling given how each run is dramatically different, it can be frustrating sometimes because in the weather world, we want consistency in the models, but we dont always get that

[MarioProtVI]

Aaaand the 00z GEFS downticked again at 240h.

[Stratton23]

And their appears to be no consistency in the ensembles what so ever either, very annoying

[Hammy]

Increasingly feels like the models are struggling to resolve the monsoon trough breakdown and where it's going to happen. Every time we see this sort of inconsistency/vacancy in the models, always seems to coincide with that. When we have separate, spaced out disturbances, they seem more able to zero in on development farther out.

[Stratton23]

I see talk about the monsoon trough, but what actually is the monsoon trough? Ive personally never heard of that feature, but clearly it does seem like its giving the op models and ensembles a fit right now

[Hammy]

I see talk about the monsoon trough, but what actually is the monsoon trough? Ive personally never heard of that feature, but clearly it does seem like its giving the op models and ensembles a fit right now

Essentially the monsoon trough is a large low pressure trough along the ITCZ during summer, featuring a strong, low level westerly/southwesterly flow to the south. (In the northern hemisphere, it's most common in Africa, Central America (and extending into the east pacific), and the Indian Ocean/western Pacific (it's the same feature that induces Central American gyres in the Caribbean that can spark storm development there or in the eastern Pacific).

The unique problem (if you're looking for development at least) in the Atlantic is, it's centered over desert--so unlike in the Pacific, when you get these large sprawling monsoon depressions over water, the Atlantic instead gets these broad, diffuse dry air laden systems stringing out over the eastern basin. So, if this is too strong, and too far north, it tends to bring a lot of dry air and dust over the basin--and because of it's strength, things are strung out (and sometimes reabsorbed) before they can develop further west.

[Hammy]

Something worth noting, the Euro is a good model to watch for when the switch flips--every prior season that I've followed the models, leading up to the switch, it would start trying to develop tropical storms over Africa before gradually moving up the timeline (and moving them over water)

There it is, the Euro's land-depression.

Another look showing the monsoon trough finally breaking down, with the monsoon to the north and ITCZ to the south. The Euro has typically had a north-bias to these tracks once it starts happening so there's a fair chance we'll start getting tropical storms out of these over the next several runs

[Nimbus]

people think season is cancel but not case we seen before that wont see system week or so in already and sep we see flood gate open maybe last week aug too if dont see system that good we already have few hurr cause issues in islands Caribbean and bermuda and texas

Need Florida sun to see Texas its only 7.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits.

[jlauderdal]

I believe that Oct is the most dangerous month for the Gulf coast of FL. And we still have Sep before that. Believe me when I say I’d love for those months to be quiet. But I’m not betting on it.

Oct is most active for the sunshine state....Wilma Sofla was our big storm, late Oct.

[WaveBreaking]

06z GEFS

[MarioProtVI]

12z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/I3qrt1u.png

That’s yesterdays’s run.

[WaveBreaking]

12z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/I3qrt1u.png

That’s yesterdays’s run.

Corrected it.

[Teban54]

12z ICON shows development in the central MDR at 180 hours. It also shows a TS inland Africa, that got down to 995 mb before weakening to 1000 on this frame.

(Edited to say 12z, not 0z)

[LarryWx]

0z ICON shows development in the central MDR at 180 hours. It also shows a TS inland Africa, that got down to 995 mb before weakening to 1000 on this frame.

https://i.postimg.cc/pdbqrRjT/image.png

This appears to be consistent with the timing on all of those AI-Euro runs with TCG near Sept 2nd around the NE Caribbean.

[Teban54]

12z CMC continues to show genesis in the MDR on Day 7. The end of the run is the strongest so far at 997 mb (CMC often underestimates intensity). This makes it 4 runs (2 days) of consistent development on the model, and the 2 runs before that also had some hints.

[Stratton23]

And of course the GFS shows nothing again, shocker!

[TallyTracker]

The models are showing about as many TSs over Africa as over the Atlantic. That’s how unfavorable the Atlantic is right now. lol I was thinking we’d get a couple of more named storms in August, but I’m gonna be surprised if we get one more now with all that stability.

[Stratton23]

And just like that the 12z GEFS at day 10 once again upticked , what a roller coaster lol