2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

And just like that, the models show signs of life going into September.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Another CMC run with MDR development from the monsoon trough. Interestingly enough, looks like it spawns dual TCs this time around. Easternmost one doesn't result in much while the western one is a strengthening TS moving west.

[Teban54]

ICON has a developing TC in the middle of the MDR at the end of its 12z run, perhaps it’s the same TC as the AI-Euro?

ICON has been showing development at 180 hrs (at least in the early stages) for 4 full runs now. Even for the couple runs before that, you could argue they were trending towards development.

I consider that consistent support from ICON, in addition to CMC and ECAI for the same wave. Additionally, a varying number of GEFS members show development each run, as well as 0z EPS today.

[Blown Away]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

[Ubuntwo]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

Look again

[toad strangler]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

I figured you would be blown away, But ya, what Ubuntwo said.

[zal0phus]

And just like that, the models show signs of life going into September.

The rollercoaster continues. People predict hyperactivity in the afternoon and season cancel in the mornings. It's like clockwork.

[AnnularCane]

And just like that, the models show signs of life going into September.

The rollercoaster continues. People predict hyperactivity in the afternoon and season cancel in the mornings. It's like clockwork.

I think it was the other way around but maybe I'm wrong.

[Teban54]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

"No hurricanes":

[cycloneye]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

You didn't see my post at the end of page 67.

[otowntiger]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

Look again

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run.

[Ubuntwo]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

Look again

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run.

There is a 967mb hurricane in the western Gulf as well. It’s from a wave the model has been back and forth and developing. May well not stick around till next run, but I figure it is a sign of things to come.

[MarioProtVI]

Look again

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run.

There is a 967mb hurricane in the western Gulf as well. It’s from a wave the model has been back and forth and developing. May well not stick around till next run, but I figure it is a sign of things to come.

Seems like that hurricane is a result of typical GFS bias with random spurious vorticity off Venezuela. Would ignore.

[Stratton23]

Im not so sure it is, the trough axis or wave near florida extends all the way down into the caribbean

[TomballEd]

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run.

There is a 967mb hurricane in the western Gulf as well. It’s from a wave the model has been back and forth and developing. May well not stick around till next run, but I figure it is a sign of things to come.

Seems like that hurricane is a result of typical GFS bias with random spurious vorticity off Venezuela. Would ignore.

I'd ignore completely as well but there are a couple of Canadian ensemble members. Mostly ignoring.

[Stratton23]

A-lot to next week, will be watching the gulf of mexico carefully for development and possibly a MDR system too, its coming folks

[Hammy]

Euro's showing more signs of things changing--it's still developing tropical storms over Africa, but of note, the tracks are shifting from NW to W to south of west, indicating it's picking up the monsoon trough breakdown, and that the waves should be coming off further south as they typically should this time of year.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPS and GEFS appear to latching on to that CMC/ICON system in the MDR. Weaker signals also exist in the Gulf and near Cabo Verde.

[Weathertracker96]

I don’t know if anyone has posted this but the 06z Euro AI model still has the system but it’s more west. It seems closer to East coast. I’m not sure how the model has done this year but I know it’s been on a MDR system for a while now.

[Ubuntwo]

yes- a 999mb low- maybe a weak TS or Depession at 16 days in MDR looking to recurve. Not very significant on its own but considering it’s been pretty desolate out there it is I guess. I’ll actually be surprised if it’s still there in the next run.

There is a 967mb hurricane in the western Gulf as well. It’s from a wave the model has been back and forth and developing. May well not stick around till next run, but I figure it is a sign of things to come.

Seems like that hurricane is a result of typical GFS bias with random spurious vorticity off Venezuela. Would ignore.

I agree it is probably overamplified due to convective feedback, but the wave is traceable all the way back to Africa.