
2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Usually over the next two weeks, if you fly out over the Atlantic you would hear “Whoop there it is” playing for all the new storms popping up.
This year, it feels like “The Sound of Silence” is playing.
This year, it feels like “The Sound of Silence” is playing.
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- MGC
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
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- chris_fit
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
MGC wrote:This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
Yup. Exactly.

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
chris_fit wrote:MGC wrote:This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
Yup. Exactly.
https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png
2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022

Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:

Not quite the same setup.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
BobHarlem wrote:chris_fit wrote:MGC wrote:This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
Yup. Exactly.
https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png
2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png
Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png
Not quite the same setup.
That says it all, really. I don’t doubt that activity will pick up eventually but there is no sign that it is imminent and certainly no sign that the season is going to “make up for lost time” with an exceptionally active second half.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
BobHarlem wrote:chris_fit wrote:MGC wrote:This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
Yup. Exactly.
https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png
2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png
Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png
Not quite the same setup.
However, the various 0Z/6Z ensembles unfortunately suggest it isn’t as simple as looking at the 6Z GFS due to a *potential* TCG within the next week or so.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.
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- WaveBreaking
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Weathertracker96 wrote:I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.
You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.
12z ICON


Last edited by WaveBreaking on Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Weathertracker96 wrote:I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.
Yeah, I like that west Gulf low on the icon along a strong cold front. Dew points in the low to mid-60s in Houston. Better get my coat out.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
WaveBreaking wrote:Weathertracker96 wrote:I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.
You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.
12z ICON![]()
https://i.imgur.com/K9eQbWl.gif
There’s the AI-Euro’s MDR system on that run. Wonder if maybe it’ll finally appear on the operational GFS and Euro given how active their ensembles were earlier today.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
BobHarlem wrote:chris_fit wrote:MGC wrote:This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC
Yup. Exactly.
https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png
2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png
Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png
Not quite the same setup.
Oh yeah, I remember that quite well haha. In 2022, the models had this thing where they would develop something, only for that system to drastically lose support closer to the projected timeframe. Now THAT was the sign of an heavily unfavorable environment.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:WaveBreaking wrote:Weathertracker96 wrote:I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.
You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.
12z ICON![]()
https://i.imgur.com/K9eQbWl.gif
There’s the AI-Euro’s MDR system on that run. Wonder if maybe it’ll finally appear on the operational GFS and Euro given how active their ensembles were earlier today.
Ironically the AI-Euro abandoned its MDR system after having it in a very similar position/timeframe on 23 runs in a row that went through the 18Z run of two days ago. Since the 0Z run of yesterday (last 6 runs), it hasn’t returned even while the ensembles and ICON have been showing an increased chance for a TCG matching those 23 AI-Euro runs. Is that weird?
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like support is growing for at least one tropical development in the area bounded by 10 N 60 W and 10 N and 20 W. That's a wall of ensemble members showing something going on. We should have something to track here within the next week I would imagine. ITCZ has shifted south to 10 N now and things are changing out there quickly.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_28.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_28.png
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
ConvergenceZone wrote:I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.
Disagree. The prediction is a range, not an exact amount. And it absolutely makes sense to attempt as it furthers the science of forecasting whether it's a bust or verifies. IMO of course.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
ConvergenceZone wrote:I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year, it's absolutely useless and unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year.
1. NOAA imho kind of already does that with their very wide ranges.
2. 12Z GEFS: almost as active as 6Z with the lead wave we’ve been discussing along with some members developing the followup MDR wave.
3. 12Z UKMET: no TCG
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12z gfs looks like it actually develops the wave with ensemble support. The catch is, it doesn’t develop it until 336hr when it’s approaching the southern gulf. It also briefly develops a system near Cabo Verde and a third in the central Atlantic, all pretty weak through 336hr though.
12z gefs starts to pick up on the signal for the first wave around hour 114, fairly strong signature a day or so later
12z gefs starts to pick up on the signal for the first wave around hour 114, fairly strong signature a day or so later
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cheezyWXguy wrote:12z gfs looks like it actually develops the wave with ensemble support. The catch is, it doesn’t develop it until 336hr when it’s approaching the southern gulf. It also briefly develops a system near Cabo Verde and a third in the central Atlantic, all pretty weak through 336hr though.
12z gefs starts to pick up on the signal for the first wave around hour 114, fairly strong signature a day or so later
Also, the 12Z CMC has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240. Could be a warning of sorts. I think a bear watch may need to be issued soon.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ConvergenceZone
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
toad strangler wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.
Disagree. The prediction is a range, not an exact amount. And it absolutely makes sense to attempt as it furthers the science of forecasting whether it's a bust or verifies. IMO of course.
Because it IS a range, that's exactly why it's better to just say "normal" or "above activity" or "below activity". They do this with temperatures and precipitation all the time. They forecast either normal temps or precipitation or above/below etc for the upcoming seasons ahead. They never give a temp range or precip range, because they know you just can't predict that. As they say, guess we will just have to agree to disagree

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