ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Should be a TD by 5am, if not sooner.

https://i.imgur.com/EbwcF8O.jpeg

In fact it would be TS since it is already at 45 kt

[wx98]

The updated track at 10 pm will have a 70-kt hurricane by Wednesday morning and landfall a tick east of Lake Charles around 7 pm Wednesday evening at 70 kts.

[DunedinDave]

Gotta give ICON credit on this one. They had been on this for about a week now and not budging. Everyone else was late to the party.

[kassi]

Gotta give ICON credit on this one. They had been on this for about a week now and not budging. Everyone else was late to the party.

Same with Beryl.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a TD by 5am, if not sooner.

https://i.imgur.com/EbwcF8O.jpeg

In fact it would be TS since it is already at 45 kt

Yeah, that’s true.

[Tailgater33]

The updated track at 10 pm will have a 70-kt hurricane by Wednesday morning and landfall a tick east of Lake Charles around 7 pm Wednesday evening at 70 kts.

I hope you have good sources cuz I don’t see it on the NHC site. I know you are an experienced poster so please forgive me.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on the system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLqRPLTG-Bk

[Blinhart]

The updated track at 10 pm will have a 70-kt hurricane by Wednesday morning and landfall a tick east of Lake Charles around 7 pm Wednesday evening at 70 kts.

I hope you have good sources cuz I don’t see it on the NHC site. I know you are an experienced poster so please forgive me.

That's what I've seen, they are expecting it to continue strengthening until landfall around Pecan Island.

[MGC]

0Z GFS and ICON both landfall near Vermillion Bay as a hurricane. GFS much stronger than ICON. If other models follow tonight and 06Z I would expect the NHC to nudge the track eastward. We shall see.....MGC

[wx98]

The updated track at 10 pm will have a 70-kt hurricane by Wednesday morning and landfall a tick east of Lake Charles around 7 pm Wednesday evening at 70 kts.

I hope you have good sources cuz I don’t see it on the NHC site. I know you are an experienced poster so please forgive me.

The source was the NHC…

[wx98]

0Z GFS and ICON both landfall near Vermillion Bay as a hurricane. GFS much stronger than ICON. If other models follow tonight and 06Z I would expect the NHC to nudge the track eastward. We shall see.....MGC

Agree. I think more the central Louisiana coastline will be in play here.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Not sure if Recon will find a well defined LLC yet.

[REDHurricane]

Ok it's starting to look like it wants to become a hurricane now, and at the end of these loops it appears that an LLC might be trying to consolidate underneath those bursts of convection popping up near 21-22ºN, 95ºW:

[Teban54]

What happened to the theory that the basin can't produce any thunderstorms because the tropopause is too warm?

[GCANE]

Shear dropping
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

Near Vermilion Bay, who would have thought? I see those frontal winds down the coast of MX are down to about 30-35 kts today, as expected. An LLC should develop later today with winds of 30-35 kts. On track for a Wed afternoon landfall near Vermilion Bay or possibly east of there. Models are always too far west with such systems.

[Nimbus]

Ok it's starting to look like it wants to become a hurricane now, and at the end of these loops it appears that an LLC might be trying to consolidate underneath those bursts of convection popping up near 21-22ºN, 95ºW:

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdnkwNXNxZGhjYWJtYmdueXIwNXlpOTBpN2kzaHhvczVkcHdqNXh3ZyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/aUzWwMQurji7gfTCIZ/giphy.gif

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZ3V1dzM5Z2M4YzA1MmxpdXNzaGRibXU2bmpjeThjaTNmdWQ1Z3AxcCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/Nc3IVvfDH3I77DCFis/giphy.gif

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOW4xNjF1bnRrYmp1MXh1YXF3dTBjczJqbmk5end3MDRmcWprbHJ4NiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/wS24xjGVtc3lk9M2yH/giphy.gif

Pressures starting to drop at the Bay of Campeche buoy.

I think consolidation is underway

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[TomballEd]

Convection near the center has started to blossom although there is still a lot of convection NW of the center which is probably slowing intensification.

There is still no defined center, I understand that as far as uncertainty, but with the low level invest mission as part of the data for the models and model agreement on landfall location is pretty good, with GFS and Euro ensembles near Vermillion Bay, noting the pro-met on models often not being far enough E, I think NHC forecast is pretty good although it may get shifted further E. St. Mary or Terrebonne Parish. I've flown out of Patterson and Morgan City fairly often in the day.

In Louisiana, Rob Perillo was the best TV met in the late 1990s and is still working today. KATC TV 3 and the LCH NWS office and NHC are the best sources for Acadiana weather.

[WaveBreaking]

The cold tops on this could put some WPAC invests to shame. I see multiple -90C overshooting tops in this loop

EDIT: Also the most recent burst of convection is nearly right over where the NHC has the center at (22N 94.7W).