ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[abajan]

The problem is with 92L is that it is a 3 or even 4 bodied problem. The models have it emerging for these waves and another wave coming off the coast of Africa it's this that is causing a problem with the models and the on off nature of them, there figuring out which one has the dominance to form in to a storm or two.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1919/TYwQDa.gif [/url]

I could see 2 or 3 different systems to come out of this mess.

Perhaps. In any other year I'd say probable. In fact, while all the chatter is over 92L and the wave further east.... I'm more focused on the ITCZ disturbance at 12N and 52W! I see some level of rotation to it right now.

I can only assume it's just a mid-level circulation of some sort and that's why the NHC hasn't mentioned it in any of their products (well, not to my knowledge anyway). Could a promet please weigh in?

[Teban54]

Meanwhile, while I don't want to start a new thread, a feature to the west at 52W is also looking interesting. It has the most clearly defined LLC in the entire MDR now (and possibly in the entire basin as of 2 hours ago), albeit also the most naked. Earlier today (not in this loop), it produced a nice burst of convection that started rotating, although that has since poofed.



Models generally don't organize it much further, and merge it (or Fujiwhara) with 92L later. That said, models are also playing catch-up with this disturbance. I'm showing Euro here because its catchup is the most drastic, but that also applies to other models.

[Teban54]

Still 60/60, but the cone of possible development has shrunk.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Cachondo23]

And it went puff… so hostile de MDR in peak season

[Teban54]

Down to 40/40.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development during the next couple of days, but a tropical
depression could still form during that time while the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

Tomorrow is the most likely window for development. Environment is marginal but it would only take ~12 hours of sustained deep convection for a TC here given the circulation is already basically present.

[Teban54]

Tomorrow is the most likely window for development. Environment is marginal but it would only take ~12 hours of sustained deep convection for a TC here given the circulation is already basically present.

Of course, the other risk is that it may not be officially acknowledged due to being expected to be a shortie, even if convection does fire for 12 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

Tomorrow is the most likely window for development. Environment is marginal but it would only take ~12 hours of sustained deep convection for a TC here given the circulation is already basically present.

Of course, the other risk is that it may not be officially acknowledged due to being expected to be a shortie, even if convection does fire for 12 hours.

Agreed... though they are already at medium. Can very easily jump to high and then TD in a 3-hour window.

[Teban54]

Hmm...

[ChrisH-UK]

Plenty of convection going on in the waves and the shear is low in the area looking like it's in a good state to develop.

[Teban54]

Convection has sustained for several hours now, even if somewhat pulsing. I can't easily see what's at the surface, however.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like it's being slowly engulfed by the big red thing on the TWO.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

The 2 cute little storms of 92L running away from the big bad storm that will be coming for them.

[Sciencerocks]

The 2 cute little storms of 92L running away from the big bad storm that will be coming for them.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2515/mcWbsW.gif [/url]

They both look to be depressions or borderline tropical storms.

[WaveBreaking]

Dropped to 40/40 30/30

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for some slight development during the next
couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during
that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Down to 30/30.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for some slight development during the next
couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during
that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

The 2 cute little storms of 92L running away from the big bad storm that will be coming for them.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2515/mcWbsW.gif [/url]

They both look to be depressions or borderline tropical storms.

Their barely swirls in the sea.

[Hammy]

The 2 cute little storms of 92L running away from the big bad storm that will be coming for them.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2515/mcWbsW.gif [/url]

They both look to be depressions or borderline tropical storms.

Their barely swirls in the sea.

Both easily fit depression criteria, close circulation with convection near the center, and having 25-30kt winds

[ChrisH-UK]

92L is looking better with more convection and growing in size, hopefully it won't be consumed up by 93L.

Source GOES16 GeoProxy + Clean IR - https://col.st/V4C6x