2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

Those of you thinking that something will develop by Friday or Saturday, I'd gladly bet a $50 contribution to S2K that NO Caribbean development (named T.S.) will occur prior to 0Z Sept. 25

Does the bet still stand if it gets classified in the Carib, but gets named in the GoM?

Would have to be named prior to 9/25 - 0Z, but sure I throw in the GOM (OR the Caribbean)

[kevin]

00z ECMWF also shows the MDR and WCar/GOM system. The MDR system is similar as the 00z GFS at +240 hrs, a weak but closed 1009 mbar system. The WCar/GOM system is further west and weaker (partially due to interaction with Yucatan), 1000 mb, looks to be heading towards the Panhandle with about 30 - 36 hrs left over water. Details don't matter that much at this range, the important thing is that the Euro is picking up the same signal.

[kevin]

00z GEFS

Short-range (0 - 96 hrs, +4 days)


*Some (most likely) non-tropical development off the US East Coast, no threat to land.
*Remnants of Gordon and another disturbance are close to each other in the central MDR. One or both of them can (re-)intensify into a TS. The ensemble seems to favor Gordon instead of the disturbance to the west.
*Some weak stuff all the way in the Eastern MDR.

Medium-range (96 - 168 hrs, +7 days)


*There is a broad consensus that Gordon will be a TS at this stage with the majority of members peaking at 40 - 70 kt. Imo a recurving weak hurricane is most likely. Might get us some nice ACE as it could be around for a few days.
*Some more subtropical stuff east of the US, but nothing I'd worry about at this point.
*The WCar is starting to wake up with the already much-talked about disturbance starting to form. Most likely a TD at most at +7 days.
*More eastern MDR members, a TD or an orange/cherry might be realistic at this stage.

Long-range (168+ hrs, 7 - 14 days)


*A strong signal for the WCar system and thus a potential threat for Mexico/US. Spread still ranges from the western GOM to east of Florida and intensity from a TD to a MH, so nothing can really be said at this stage. But in terms of impacts to the US, this could be one to keep an eye on.
*The MDR system has now resulted in a recurving TS/hurricane in most GFS members. Most likely not a threat, though some members keep the disturbance moving much longer west than the others so who knows.

Conclusion
Short-range: look for Gordon to become a TS again.
Medium-range: some weak stuff might start to form in the WCar and eastern MDR, most likely still invests or TDs at this stage.
Long-range: this is where we should get or H-storm and I-storm according to GEFS with the two aforementioned WCar and eastern MDR systems. If the GEFS plays out exactly we'd end the month of September with 4 TCs. Not a lot, but all 4 could become hurricanes according to the ensemble.

[CFLHurricane]

Love the 00z GFS apocalypse scenario scraping the the entire eastern seaboard from Naples to NYC Suffice to say, all the models coming on board within a week has me convinced the seasonal slowdown was just a wind up.

[Stormlover70]

Yeah, 0z GFS is the real Happy Hour, or perhaps Drunk Hour.

• Gordon becomes stronger and peaks at 981 mb, which is the strongest that GFS had shown in a few days
• The Caribbean system landfalls in Key West and Marco Island at 954 mb, crosses Lake Okeechobee, reintensifies after FL and landfalls in NC Outer Banks with the same pressure, before finally crashing into Long Island and New England
• The 9/22 wave becomes a hurricane in the eastern MDR, reaching 968 mb when recurving at 40W (like Helene 2018) -- Edit: Looks like it's blocked by a ridge at the end of the run
• (There's also a short-lived subtropical storm off the Carolinas coast at the same time when the two abovementioned storms are developing, but it might just be convective feedback)

Outside of GFS, though, 0z CMC has also shown development in the MDR for the first time in weeks (it didn't show Gordon until a TD had already formed). This run shows a TD/TS for both the 9/22 and the 9/26 waves.

https://i.postimg.cc/jjpTkpRT/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-354.gif

that run affects tampa as well. Huge storm

[Nimbus]

Love the 00z GFS apocalypse scenario scraping the the entire eastern seaboard from Naples to NYC Suffice to say, all the models coming on board within a week has me convinced the seasonal slowdown was just a wind up.

06Z GFS a little weaker with the Caribbean development, initially crossing the tip of Cuba a little further west and weaker 987 mb vs 961.
Most of the Caribbean signal must just be seasonal norms, west coast of Florida historically is targeted by late season storms after Texas has seen their end of season.

[kevin]

Luckily it's still far out, but 06z GFS has a 949 mbar MH eventually making landfall into Pensacola with a pressure in the 950s . Is there is a 'big one' this season that isn't Beryl, this might be it.

[mantis83]

concern growing for the gulf coast, development on the 6Z GFS begins in 5 days.......

[N2FSU]

0z Euro onboard with development:




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[SFLcane]

concern growing for the gulf coast, development on the 6Z GFS begins in 5 days.......

Way to early for this…There is no growing concern for anyone yet lol we don’t even have a disturbance the gfs will pick and choose every location for a few days anything over 200hrs as usual is pure fantasy. Best to use ensembles at this lead time There’s also a chance nothing develops

[Ivanhater]

GFS Euro and CMC in pretty good agreement. Fortunately, that can change next run .... hopefully

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

[kevin]

35% of 00z Euro members have development within 7 days (+168 hrs) and 49% of 06z GEFS members have the WCar system within 7 days. Might be enough for a 0/10 or 0/20 lemon soon.

[mantis83]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

agreed! 6z gfs ensembles seem to have shifted slightly westward too.....

[cajungal]

Didn’t mean to post twice

[cajungal]

Just to think about another storm in the gulf makes me sick! A week today since Francine hit! And we have to do extensive work where we had floodwater enter our home.

[toad strangler]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

agreed! 6z gfs ensembles seem to have shifted slightly westward too.....

Ensembles (As will the ops) will jump around for sure without an actual player on the field but there seems to be a pretty strong signal for something now. With the GFS, CMC, and now Euro seeing something ...

[cajungal]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

agreed! 6z gfs ensembles seem to have shifted slightly westward too.....

Ensembles (As will the ops) will jump around for sure without an actual player on the field but there seems to be a pretty strong signal for something now. With the GFS, CMC, and now Euro seeing something ...

We don’t know yet where this thing will go but looks to be a monster. Hopefully lightening won’t hit twice for us. We have a lot of people flying from all over the country to New Orleans 25th-29th to honor their love ones for a world war11 reunion for the mighty 8th Air Force. Myself included but I am only an hour drive from New Orleans. All that will change though if a hurricane is headed our way.

[toad strangler]

[Teban54]

00z GEFS

Short-range (0 - 96 hrs, +4 days)

https://i.imgur.com/CquEZxZ.png
*Some (most likely) non-tropical development off the US East Coast, no threat to land.
*Remnants of Gordon and another disturbance are close to each other in the central MDR. One or both of them can (re-)intensify into a TS. The ensemble seems to favor Gordon instead of the disturbance to the west.
*Some weak stuff all the way in the Eastern MDR.

Medium-range (96 - 168 hrs, +7 days)

https://i.imgur.com/FIRNl1T.png
*There is a broad consensus that Gordon will be a TS at this stage with the majority of members peaking at 40 - 70 kt. Imo a recurving weak hurricane is most likely. Might get us some nice ACE as it could be around for a few days.
*Some more subtropical stuff east of the US, but nothing I'd worry about at this point.
*The WCar is starting to wake up with the already much-talked about disturbance starting to form. Most likely a TD at most at +7 days.
*More eastern MDR members, a TD or an orange/cherry might be realistic at this stage.

Long-range (168+ hrs, 7 - 14 days)

https://i.imgur.com/PGwjbaq.png
*A strong signal for the WCar system and thus a potential threat for Mexico/US. Spread still ranges from the western GOM to east of Florida and intensity from a TD to a MH, so nothing can really be said at this stage. But in terms of impacts to the US, this could be one to keep an eye on.
*The MDR system has now resulted in a recurving TS/hurricane in most GFS members. Most likely not a threat, though some members keep the disturbance moving much longer west than the others so who knows.

Conclusion
Short-range: look for Gordon to become a TS again.
Medium-range: some weak stuff might start to form in the WCar and eastern MDR, most likely still invests or TDs at this stage.
Long-range: this is where we should get or H-storm and I-storm according to GEFS with the two aforementioned WCar and eastern MDR systems. If the GEFS plays out exactly we'd end the month of September with 4 TCs. Not a lot, but all 4 could become hurricanes according to the ensemble.

Looks like you're posting yesterday's 12z, though?