00z GEFS
Short-range (0 - 96 hrs, +4 days)
*Some (most likely) non-tropical development off the US East Coast, no threat to land.
*Remnants of Gordon and another disturbance are close to each other in the central MDR. One or both of them can (re-)intensify into a TS. The ensemble seems to favor Gordon instead of the disturbance to the west.
*Some weak stuff all the way in the Eastern MDR.
Medium-range (96 - 168 hrs, +7 days)
*There is a broad consensus that Gordon will be a TS at this stage with the majority of members peaking at 40 - 70 kt. Imo a recurving weak hurricane is most likely. Might get us some nice ACE as it could be around for a few days.
*Some more subtropical stuff east of the US, but nothing I'd worry about at this point.
*The WCar is starting to wake up with the already much-talked about disturbance starting to form. Most likely a TD at most at +7 days.
*More eastern MDR members, a TD or an orange/cherry might be realistic at this stage.
Long-range (168+ hrs, 7 - 14 days)
*A strong signal for the WCar system and thus a potential threat for Mexico/US. Spread still ranges from the western GOM to east of Florida and intensity from a TD to a MH, so nothing can really be said at this stage. But in terms of impacts to the US, this could be one to keep an eye on.
*The MDR system has now resulted in a recurving TS/hurricane in most GFS members. Most likely not a threat, though some members keep the disturbance moving much longer west than the others so who knows.
ConclusionShort-range: look for Gordon to become a TS again.
Medium-range: some weak stuff might start to form in the WCar and eastern MDR, most likely still invests or TDs at this stage.
Long-range: this is where we should get or H-storm and I-storm according to GEFS with the two aforementioned WCar and eastern MDR systems. If the GEFS plays out exactly we'd end the month of September with 4 TCs. Not a lot, but all 4 could become hurricanes according to the ensemble.