2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

Icon still has an end of run solution different from the other models (0Z longer run). Looking for it to get on board as well since it has a good track record this year.

[kevin]

00z GEFS

Short-range (0 - 96 hrs, +4 days)

https://i.imgur.com/CquEZxZ.png
*Some (most likely) non-tropical development off the US East Coast, no threat to land.
*Remnants of Gordon and another disturbance are close to each other in the central MDR. One or both of them can (re-)intensify into a TS. The ensemble seems to favor Gordon instead of the disturbance to the west.
*Some weak stuff all the way in the Eastern MDR.

Medium-range (96 - 168 hrs, +7 days)

https://i.imgur.com/FIRNl1T.png
*There is a broad consensus that Gordon will be a TS at this stage with the majority of members peaking at 40 - 70 kt. Imo a recurving weak hurricane is most likely. Might get us some nice ACE as it could be around for a few days.
*Some more subtropical stuff east of the US, but nothing I'd worry about at this point.
*The WCar is starting to wake up with the already much-talked about disturbance starting to form. Most likely a TD at most at +7 days.
*More eastern MDR members, a TD or an orange/cherry might be realistic at this stage.

Long-range (168+ hrs, 7 - 14 days)

https://i.imgur.com/PGwjbaq.png
*A strong signal for the WCar system and thus a potential threat for Mexico/US. Spread still ranges from the western GOM to east of Florida and intensity from a TD to a MH, so nothing can really be said at this stage. But in terms of impacts to the US, this could be one to keep an eye on.
*The MDR system has now resulted in a recurving TS/hurricane in most GFS members. Most likely not a threat, though some members keep the disturbance moving much longer west than the others so who knows.

Conclusion
Short-range: look for Gordon to become a TS again.
Medium-range: some weak stuff might start to form in the WCar and eastern MDR, most likely still invests or TDs at this stage.
Long-range: this is where we should get or H-storm and I-storm according to GEFS with the two aforementioned WCar and eastern MDR systems. If the GEFS plays out exactly we'd end the month of September with 4 TCs. Not a lot, but all 4 could become hurricanes according to the ensemble.

Looks like you're posting yesterday's 12z, though?

Thanks, I now uploaded the correct ensemble images.

[DunedinDave]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

So panhandle to the Western Gulf? That makes me feel better. I’m near Tampa and was getting nervous about this already.

[jlauderdal]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

So panhandle to the Western Gulf? That makes me feel better. I’m near Tampa and was getting nervous about this already.

Dont be nervous, be informed. Brownsville to OBX well in play and points north.

[Matlachamullethead]

Not the western Gulf DunedinDave..... I think it was supposed to be interpreted the west coast of Fla. So yes, keep a close eye on it.

[BobHarlem]

Fair chance this winds up on the outlook this afternoon/evening if the 12z runs persist with it.

[ThunderForce]

Can't say I'm particularly liking these trends. I will admit it does definitely make me nervous. It could just be me, but it almost seems like the majority of the major hurricanes that have hit FL in the past few years since Irma were spun up and/or aided by CAGs like Michael, Ian and Idalia.

Best case scenario would be for this to get strung out and not form, but with all the models seemingly jumping in on something forming...

[Kazmit]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

So panhandle to the Western Gulf? That makes me feel better. I’m near Tampa and was getting nervous about this already.

Way too early to feel comfortable. Also too early to stress about it. A lot could change in 10 days.

[WaveBreaking]

Both the 00Z and 06Z AIFS runs today are on board with a gulf track instead of a quick death in Central America. Now the only model that’s left to show this track is the ICON.

[xironman]

Icon still has an end of run solution different from the other models (0Z longer run). Looking for it to get on board as well since it has a good track record this year.

Last nights run is hinting at it, but at different timing.

[Ubuntwo]

Can't say I'm particularly liking these trends. I will admit it does definitely make me nervous. It could just be me, but it almost seems like the majority of the major hurricanes that have hit FL in the past few years since Irma were spun up and/or aided by CAGs like Michael, Ian and Idalia.

Best case scenario would be for this to get strung out and not form, but with all the models seemingly jumping in on something forming...

Ian was purely of tropical wave origin. It formed in the Eastern/Central Caribbean without gyre influence. Idalia was a more complex setup as a trough crossed over from the Eastern Pacific. Neither storm’s TCR makes a mention of a Central American Gyre. I’m not so convinced that’s the case with this storm. While some tropical waves appear to spark the initial vorticity development, the disturbance is very broad on most models, and the role of a trough dipping down in its formation would also hint at potential gyre activity.

[Ubuntwo]

I think the chances are unfortunately increasing that we're going to have something significant to watch in the WCAR and Gulf next week. Too early to say where this thing will head and how strong it will be (I'm going to refrain from making Ian, Michael, or Charley comparisons at this point in time), but given late September climo and the bathtub-warm Gulf, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a strong hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle or the Western Gulf Coast of the state.

So panhandle to the Western Gulf? That makes me feel better. I’m near Tampa and was getting nervous about this already.

It’s still very, very far out, but he said western Gulf coast of the state, i.e. you’re still very much on the table. Ensembles certainly suggest that line of thinking can’t be ruled out.

[Europa non è lontana]

Both the 18z and 06z GFS runs have had a strong tropical storm forming in the Black Sea at around +180.

00z GFS dropped the system but both 00z and 06z ICON now show a moderate tropical storm forming between +120 and +132. The 00z GDAPS shows a tropical storm forming at +120, which deepens to a 975mb hurricane by +168. The 00z ACCESS-G model shows a tropical storm forming by +132. A small number of ECMWF ensemble members also show support for development of a weak tropical storm in the Black Sea.

00z ICON

06z ICON

[ThomasW]

12Z ICON hot off the presses with a slight downtrend for our Caribbean system.

[kevin]

ICON remains an outlier, 12z run is roughly the same as this morning's 00z in terms of the WCar system. A broad and meandering 1002 mbar system over Yucatan. 00z had a similar setup and 1004 mbar. Could still become more in the long-term, but for now clearly different from the other models.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Both the 18z and 06z GFS runs have had a strong tropical storm forming in the Black Sea at around +180.

00z GFS dropped the system but both 00z and 06z ICON now show a moderate tropical storm forming between +120 and +132. The 00z GDAPS shows a tropical storm forming at +120, which deepens to a 975mb hurricane by +168. The 00z ACCESS-G model shows a tropical storm forming by +132. A small number of ECMWF ensemble members also show support for development of a weak tropical storm in the Black Sea.

00z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/7dPWoNs.gif
06z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/LZwpstU.png

Kinda wild...looks like a tropical storm on the Black Sea (I don't think you meant to post this though)

[chaser1]

Both the 18z and 06z GFS runs have had a strong tropical storm forming in the Black Sea at around +180.

00z GFS dropped the system but both 00z and 06z ICON now show a moderate tropical storm forming between +120 and +132. The 00z GDAPS shows a tropical storm forming at +120, which deepens to a 975mb hurricane by +168. The 00z ACCESS-G model shows a tropical storm forming by +132. A small number of ECMWF ensemble members also show support for development of a weak tropical storm in the Black Sea.

00z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/7dPWoNs.gif
06z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/LZwpstU.png

Kinda wild...looks like a tropical storm on the Black Sea (I don't think you meant to post this though)

Potential Black Sea TS/Hurricane LOL? Would it technically be named, and which basin would its ACE be attributed too?

[kevin]

00z GFS dropped the system but both 00z and 06z ICON now show a moderate tropical storm forming between +120 and +132. The 00z GDAPS shows a tropical storm forming at +120, which deepens to a 975mb hurricane by +168. The 00z ACCESS-G model shows a tropical storm forming by +132. A small number of ECMWF ensemble members also show support for development of a weak tropical storm in the Black Sea.

00z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/7dPWoNs.gif
06z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/LZwpstU.png

Kinda wild...looks like a tropical storm on the Black Sea (I don't think you meant to post this though)

Potential Black Sea TS/Hurricane LOL? Would it technically be named, and which basin would its ACE be attributed too?

It wouldn't be the first time a TS forms in the Black Sea, even though such an occurance is indeed very rare. One well-documented case is about a tropical cyclone in September 2005 (for example the image below and this paper = https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225350653_Observations_of_a_Quasi-Tropical_Cyclone_over_the_Black_Sea). The paper estimates the TC peaked at 992 mbar and 100 kmh (55 kt, 65 mph). Unfortunately, Mediterranean cyclones are already very poorly documented with no clear agency or list of rules. Black Sea cyclones are even worse in this regard, so it probably won't be named, tracked or registered in terms of ACE by any official agency. The joint European windstorm season initiative since 2017 is a small step forward, but the fact that Mediterranean cyclones (which usually occur multiple times per year) and storms like this have no official agency tracking them and keeping a consistent historical record, even after the disastrous cyclone Daniel last year, annoys me quite a bit.

[toad strangler]

Both 12z GFS and CMC developing the W Car again.

[REDHurricane]

Good thing the NHC didn't name PTC 8 at least or else everyone would be starting to panic