2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

12z Euro is a mess with a lot of energy getting tangled up in the CAG across the western caribbean and BOC

[AnnularCane]

When do we get a disturbance anyway?

[toad strangler]

When do we get a disturbance anyway?

I'm at a loss for that answer as well. Someone mentioned yesterday that it was the trailing end to a trough moving through central FL ... again, this was yesterday.

[SFLcane]

When do we get a disturbance anyway?

Hello, here is a good summary.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1836037490513207423

[CourierPR]

When do we get a disturbance anyway?

I'm at a loss for that answer as well. Someone mentioned yesterday that it was the trailing end to a trough moving through central FL ... again, this was yesterday.

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist at WPLG TV in Miami said last night that it would be next week.

[jlauderdal]

Bernie Rayno has spoken. It could have been done in 3 minutes, but it's Bernie, so enjoy the whole thing.

https://bit.ly/3B3QhUu

[toad strangler]

[CourierPR]

Bernie Rayno has spoken. It could have been done in 3 minutes, but it's Bernie, so enjoy the whole thing.

https://bit.ly/3B3QhUu

A superb explanation similar to Bastardi but minus the political hoopla.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1836134001725063297

[Spacecoast]

12z EC-AI: At 144hrs, ....

[Stratton23]

270 hours out though lol

[ronjon]

270 hours out though lol

Genesis happens by Monday next week in the western Caribbean according to the Euro AI. Ultimate strength and path is obviously unknown at this time until we get much closer. The Euro AI along with ICON, however, performed the best with Francine almost a week in advance.

[xironman]

Bernie Rayno has spoken. It could have been done in 3 minutes, but it's Bernie, so enjoy the whole thing.

https://bit.ly/3B3QhUu

A superb explanation similar to Bastardi but minus the political hoopla.

Pattern typical of October... Wilma1

[Frank P]

12z ECMWF-AIFS loop, interesting loop at the end of the run...

[MetroMike]

12z ECMWF-AIFS loop, interesting loop at the end of the run...
https://i.ibb.co/k2RRLtg/floop-ecmwf-aifs-2024091712-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

Much slower than the 18z GFS has it now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most recent GFS operational has the WCAR system entering into the Gulf and hitting just north of Tampa as a mid-grade hurricane. It also has two decent hurricanes forming near Cape Verde in rapid succession and keeps Cape Verde season alive even into October.

In fact, assuming the 18z GEFS ensembles are to be believed, there *may* be a bit of competition between an MDR wave near Cape Verde and the W. Atlantic system on who grabs the H name.

[Powellrm]

From everything I’ve read and gathered, there doesn’t seem to be much that would inhibit this system from really intensifying. Seems like more of a track question at this point. Still very very early and a lot can change, but the environment and set up looks quite favorable.

[Nimbus]

12z ECMWF-AIFS loop, interesting loop at the end of the run...
https://i.ibb.co/k2RRLtg/floop-ecmwf-aifs-2024091712-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

These computers must have led a former life high speed trading the stock markets?
How are the seasonal storms from all the summer heat energy in the western Caribbean going to find their way out to sea off Nova Scotia?
We've had many possible scenarios projected thus far.
Five days out we will have a better idea of the ridging and any steering trough alignments.

[MetroMike]

We have a lemon as per evening update from NHC.

Use the other thread for Caribbean system.

[MHC Tracking]

00z EPS suggesting a more "MDR-ish" typhoon developing in around 7-8 days.