Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[jlauderdal]

FWIW... GEFS 12z Ensembles still like the middle to eastern GOM. Not seeing much get past New Orleans longitude through 204 hours.

Destruction for FL lol..

https://i.postimg.cc/W3QfTG2T/bbb.png

Development continues to get pushed back as well as forward motion slowing later in the period, a hurricane being left behind scenario isnt out of the question.

[TomballEd]

I don't remember the name of the book. https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/are-supernatural-forces-protecting-tampa-bay-from-hurricanes-probably-not/

[DunedinDave]

The Tampa Bay thing, 50 years ago when I was a student in Catholic school I checked out a book from the school library about hurricanes written by a man from Tampa who had shot down a Japanese plane at Pearl Harbor. Anyway, he said Tampa seems to have a protective force field, he recalled several forecast misses and sudden weakening. But 50 years ago people in Tampa thought there was a magic field. Something to do with Native Americans, IIRC.

Of course, a big hurricane will hit Tampa Bay, but the frequency seems low.

I got interested in hurricanes first from my parents' stories of 1938, and then Hurricane Belle in 1976. My Dad wouldn't let me go outside for the eye.

Will the force field hold again?

It’s mainly because of the shape of the coast and the angle it has to come. Most storms that come from the south either take more of a harder right turn toward Port Charlotte or more of a gradual turn toward the big bend or Panhandle. Kinda like Jacksonville in that it’s gotta take that perfect angle which is tough given the coast’s shape.

The GFS track is the most likely way a cat 5 would hit TB because it comes more on an ENE track which btw is very rare in the Gulf…usually if a storm moves ENE in the gulf it’s a depression or weak storm. I’ve rarely seen a major Hurricane move ENE or due east in the central gulf. Closest I can think of is Wilma. And the
GFS track is a slightly further north version of Wilma.

[Stormlover70]

I don't remember the name of the book. https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/are-supernatural-forces-protecting-tampa-bay-from-hurricanes-probably-not/

I hope our time hasn't come....

[3090]

Just another model run. EURO aligning with the ICON in western GOM.

I think one trend we can agree on is the delayed development and a somewhat consensus of the GFS, and EURO, a development in the SC GOM appears to be the current area for development. Where this goes and whatever this becomes are the next questions to be answered.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Tampa Bay thing, 50 years ago when I was a student in Catholic school I checked out a book from the school library about hurricanes written by a man from Tampa who had shot down a Japanese plane at Pearl Harbor. Anyway, he said Tampa seems to have a protective force field, he recalled several forecast misses and sudden weakening. But 50 years ago people in Tampa thought there was a magic field. Something to do with Native Americans, IIRC.

Of course, a big hurricane will hit Tampa Bay, but the frequency seems low.

I got interested in hurricanes first from my parents' stories of 1938, and then Hurricane Belle in 1976. My Dad wouldn't let me go outside for the eye.

Will the force field hold again?

It’s mainly because of the shape of the coast and the angle it has to come. Most storms that come from the south either take more of a harder right turn toward Port Charlotte or more of a gradual turn toward the big bend or Panhandle. Kinda like Jacksonville in that it’s gotta take that perfect angle which is tough given the coast’s shape.

The GFS track is the most likely way a cat 5 would hit TB because it comes more on an ENE track which btw is very rare in the Gulf…usually if a storm moves ENE in the gulf it’s a depression or weak storm. I’ve rarely seen a major Hurricane move ENE or due east in the central gulf. Closest I can think of is Wilma. And the
GFS track is a slightly further north version of Wilma.

Yes, the angle at which storms must approach to hit Tampa makes it relatively hard to hit. Charley, Wilma, and Ian were too far south, and Michael and Idalia were too far north. The 1921 storm is perhaps the most ideal kind of track a storm could take for a major Tampa disaster.

[chaser1]

12 GFS is out to 126 hr's and i'm seeing shades of the goal posts moving back a bit. The EPAC low and W Caribbean Low seems to be part of the overall Gyre thus delaying development for the larger overall feature. Also as a sidenote, forget about ex-Gordon or the E. MDR wave coming off Africa. Seems that GFS is just not feeling them up to 126 hr's.

Narrator: The Eastern MDR wave survived until 384 hrs while threatening South Florida twice.

You are correct sir My reference at that juncture was regarding the GFS prior 6Z run which advertised Ex-Gordon & a newly introduced African wave potentially competing for the "H" name prior to Caribbean development. Contrary to the prior run showing a 1009 MDR low at 96 hr's, the present 12Z run had shown no evidence of development up to 126 hr.'s on the current run (1009 mb actually did not begin to appear until about 138 hr's)

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro ends at 993mb stalled out in the west-central Gulf.

[Jr0d]

I don't remember the name of the book. https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/are-supernatural-forces-protecting-tampa-bay-from-hurricanes-probably-not/

Cape Caneveral also has rumors of supernatural protection, some even say this helped on choosing the location for NASA's Space Center.

I do think it's too early to guess where this one may go. Longer the development gets pushed back, the more likely a trough pushes it Northeast.

[3090]

I don't remember the name of the book. https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/are-supernatural-forces-protecting-tampa-bay-from-hurricanes-probably-not/

Cape Caneveral also has rumors of supernatural protection, some even say this helped on choosing the location for NASA's Space Center.

I do think it's too early to guess where this one may go. Longer the development gets pushed back, the more likely a trough pushes it Northeast.

Just the opposite. The longer it lingers and is weaker the less an east coast trof provides for an exit. The more it drifts/meanders about with a SLOW west movement. I believe that is what the EURO and ICON both are seeing and are basically right on top of one another. The GFS is pretty much the outlier at this time.

[HurricaneRyan]

Watch this become a dangerous I storm.

[zal0phus]

Watch this become a dangerous I storm.

If this pans out as feared, it would be a fitting end for Isaac. Goodbye to the last original I-name.

[TomballEd]

Hurricane development in the Caribbean slipping further and further away is something often seen with the GFS and its ensembles, it is often a sign it is a phantom cane, but it isn't just the GFS this time.

Besides not knowing when the system will form and where, the features over the Pacific that will influence heights over the US won't be sampled by sondes for days. Models handle potential snow storms much better once 'all the players are on the field'.

So the options are near limitless on what might and might not happen, ensembles and climatology are the best tools this far out. The ultimate disaster for whichever city or stretch of coastline from this at the end of September is interesting, but it doesn't mean much. The Tampa Bay disaster scenario will be interesting to discuss as each run of a different model hits.

[ConvergenceZone]

It would be interesting to see if the continued delay of the system developing eventually leads to it not forecasted not become a system at all. Way too early to call that though.

[beachnut]

And there you have it. Cliff hanger LOL. At 380 hr's, the hurricane is over the extreme Western tip of Cuba at 960 mb drifting NE. "HELLO Key West & Cape Coral, I see you".

That GFS run was more fun then expected. Think I need a cold shower after that 12Z fantasy.

Here I was hoping for a complete season bust Praying we don't get another major our way, or at least a landfall south of us so that we're on the easterly flow side. We were incredibly lucky that we didn't get water in our home with Ian, missing be mere inches. Even if it rides close enough offshore up to the panhandle or big bend we will get some surge, maybe more than I think depending on strength. Heck even with Debby my dock was under water and the seawall was crested about 4' into the backyard.

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro... end of run.

[TomballEd]

It would be interesting to see if the continued delay of the system developing eventually leads to it not forecasted not become a system at all. Way too early to call that though.

Another 50 page thread on a system that develops a week or more after initially forecast, if at all, well, there should be an archive of many page AOI threads.

[DunedinDave]

Just another model run. EURO aligning with the ICON in western GOM.

I think one trend we can agree on is the delayed development and a somewhat consensus of the GFS, and EURO, a development in the SC GOM appears to be the current area for development. Where this goes and whatever this becomes are the next questions to be answered.

Stall-outs this time of year in the Gulf is not uncommon. Opal and Wilma come to mind where it meandered and waited for a front to pick it up and sling it to the right. I get the sense we're going to get something similar here. I think the GFS, Euro, and ICON seem to be in agreement about a slow-mover kind of meandering somewhere around the Yucatan in the southern Gulf. The GFS just takes it a bit further and slings it hard right, kinda like Wilma. All will depend on how strong a trough is that digs down and that's kind of impossible to predict 10 days out. It could be more like Katrina and just kick it due north.

[ConvergenceZone]

12z Euro... end of run.

https://i.ibb.co/26R4QYN/anom.jpg

Is EURO going to show this going into Mexico? Would be interesting if that's the case. Guess anywhere from Mexico to Florida at this point.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... end of run.

https://i.ibb.co/26R4QYN/anom.jpg

The 12z Euro makes sense if it doesn't develop it will stay shallow and move more west in the easterlies?