Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Hammy]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

[MetroMike]

The 12z Euro is keeping this weak in the western Gulf meandering.

[ThomasW]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

Yep. "The trend is our friend", though we're not even into the woods yet, let alone out of them.

[Stratton23]

A SW trend may not be necessarily a good thing as seen on the euro, yeah development gets delayed, but a sw trend would likely have this ending up in the bay of campache , from there it would likely get drawn N-NE towards some part of the gulf coast, whatever tries to develop, its looking pretty unlikely that the gulf coast is going to escape impacts, now to what degree those impacts are, remains to be seen

[Steve]

Interestingly many of the MJO models are forecasting a move toward 8/1 next week. We haven’t been in super favorable territory since Debby and Ernesto. It’s likely why the Atlantic underperformed hyper seasonal forecasts. The Australian model doesn’t agree but it won’t update until tomorrow or Saturday. We could see a few intense systems if we get to 8/1/2/3 but that would only last until the second week of October unless it ducks back into the circle and re-emerges a couple days later.

[Steve]

A SW trend may not be necessarily a good thing as seen on the euro, yeah development gets delayed, but a sw trend would likely have this ending up in the bay of campache , from there it would likely get drawn N-NE towards some part of the gulf coast, whatever tries to develop, its looking pretty unlikely that the gulf coast is going to escape impacts, now to what degree those impacts are, remains to be seen

I’d give odds it will get to the Bay of Campeche.

[Teban54]

The 12z Euro is keeping this weak in the western Gulf meandering.

Euro had never been particularly enthusiastic about the system, though, so today's 12z run ended up being the strongest it ever had despite being "only" 993 mb at the end of the run.

[hipshot]

Interestingly many of the MJO models are forecasting a move toward 8/1 next week. We haven’t been in super favorable territory since Debby and Ernesto. It’s likely why the Atlantic underperformed hyper seasonal forecasts. The Australian model doesn’t agree but it won’t update until tomorrow or Saturday. We could see a few intense systems if we get to 8/1/2/3 but that would only last until the second week of October unless it ducks back into the circle and re-emerges a couple days later.

I think you meant 10/1/2/3...correct?

[Pipelines182]

A SW trend may not be necessarily a good thing as seen on the euro, yeah development gets delayed, but a sw trend would likely have this ending up in the bay of campache , from there it would likely get drawn N-NE towards some part of the gulf coast, whatever tries to develop, its looking pretty unlikely that the gulf coast is going to escape impacts, now to what degree those impacts are, remains to be seen

I would argue this would be the worst place for it to end up. As you said, highly likely this gets drawn in a general NE direction, which maximizes time over water, over the hottest water in the Gulf, furthest away from continental dry air.

[Woofde]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

Yep. "The trend is our friend", though we're not even into the woods yet, let alone out of them.

It's a fine line. The fast development and quick escape solution looking less likely may be good or bad. Sure it increases the chance of this not developing at all, but it also increases the chance of a scenario where this system finds itself trapped in the Gulf. That would give it much more time to get its act together.

[Nimbus]

Todays 12Z GFS doesn't have a closed low off Nicaragua till Tuesday.
Earlier GFS runs showed a low there this weekend.
Euro solution isn't much better, BOC is a bad place for a storm to form unless there is a strong trough to shear it and keep the strength down.

[ConvergenceZone]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

yea I'm not feeling as bullish as I was last night about development now. I won't be surprised if the other models start to trend weak or no showing no development. Will see if the models start to follow the trend of the Euro.

[3090]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

yea I'm not feeling as bullish as I was last night about development now. I won't be surprised if the other models start to trend weak or no showing no development. Will see if the models start to follow the trend of the Euro.

EURO is usually the trend setter. ICON of late as well.

[Stratton23]

We need to be careful with taking the Euro solution or any one particular model run outcome to verbatim when its this esrly in the game, it still develops in the western gulf and is stalled out but does strengthen down to 993 mb, i have no doupts if the euro run continued , it would be showing a hurricane, id put odds of development at around 70-80% as its looking very likely something is going to try to form, we will see if it occurs in the bay of camapche or western caribbean

[Teban54]

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

yea I'm not feeling as bullish as I was last night about development now. I won't be surprised if the other models start to trend weak or no showing no development. Will see if the models start to follow the trend of the Euro.

EURO is usually the trend setter. ICON of late as well.

Ah yes, right after a model that refused to consolidate the system beyond a broad mess for days (unlike every other global model) suddenly has a run where it's the most organized and strongest that the model has ever shown, that model is suddenly thought of as a "trend setter" for a trend towards "weak or no development" -- which is literally opposite the latest trend of the model itself.

[ThomasW]

18z ICON a bit weaker through hour 120.

[3090]

yea I'm not feeling as bullish as I was last night about development now. I won't be surprised if the other models start to trend weak or no showing no development. Will see if the models start to follow the trend of the Euro.

EURO is usually the trend setter. ICON of late as well.

Ah yes, right after a model that refused to consolidate the system beyond a broad mess for days (unlike every other global model) suddenly has a run where it's the most organized and strongest that the model has ever shown, that model is suddenly thought of as a "trend setter" for a trend towards "weak or no development" -- which is literally opposite the latest trend of the model itself.

The EURO has been west for almost the entirety of this event from jump as I recall while the GFS has pretty much been to the east. The GFS is now trending west as well and no longer the model that would be the outlier from the others including the EURO.

[Hammy]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

Look at the trends, it seems like a continuation of yesterday's southwest trend, so that's putting it over land when the gyre initially gets going, rather over the southwest or western Caribbean.

yea I'm not feeling as bullish as I was last night about development now. I won't be surprised if the other models start to trend weak or no showing no development. Will see if the models start to follow the trend of the Euro.

I fully expect this to develop, especially as the models are all bringing it north eventually (remember Francene) but where the low forms will determine when formation occurs--if the monsoon trough gets together farther east, say in the SW Caribbean, development will happen sooner. If it's further west, even by a bit, it'll start out over land, so development will then be delayed until it's over water.

[Steve]

Interestingly many of the MJO models are forecasting a move toward 8/1 next week. We haven’t been in super favorable territory since Debby and Ernesto. It’s likely why the Atlantic underperformed hyper seasonal forecasts. The Australian model doesn’t agree but it won’t update until tomorrow or Saturday. We could see a few intense systems if we get to 8/1/2/3 but that would only last until the second week of October unless it ducks back into the circle and re-emerges a couple days later.

I think you meant 10/1/2/3...correct?

No. MJO Phases go 1 through 8. It correlates with eastward moving “disturbance” moving across from the Indian Ocean or WPAC. I’m not on laptop today so I can’t send you a bunch of links. But depending on the phase we are in at a given time (or within the circle) telegraphs tropical weather and where to look for it, if at all, in the tropical Atlantic. Phases 2 and 3 are hyper for the Gulf. 8 and 1 are generally favorable as well. Fwiw it also telegraphs weather patterns in the winter.

Here is the link to the Climate Prediction Center and the models they use and an explanation of what each model represents. If you mouse over them on laptop or desktop those models will come up. Otherwise click and backspace.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Teban54]

18z GFS has an EPAC storm that develops and then RIs into a major much sooner than all earlier runs showed, at a stage where the Caribbean system is still trying to form. Unless there are reasons to believe the EPAC system would develop and especially strengthen this quickly, it's probably messing with the Caribbean situation on this run.