ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[WeatherBoy2000]

Personally I think this is a TC. ASCAT showed a pretty well defined circulation and convection has been persisting for a day, even if sheared. Is the only reason they are not designating this because the models think it won't last long? Certainly a drastic change from previous seasons - will certainly make the pre-season predictions look a lot worse because we've had quite a few shortie candidates that were ignored this year... https://i.ibb.co/F56hP1y/goes16-ir-96-L-202409212025.gif

It might get the "unnamed storm" treatment in the post season analysis.

[Teban54]

Personally I think this is a TC. ASCAT showed a pretty well defined circulation and convection has been persisting for a day, even if sheared. Is the only reason they are not designating this because the models think it won't last long? Certainly a drastic change from previous seasons - will certainly make the pre-season predictions look a lot worse because we've had quite a few shortie candidates that were ignored this year... https://i.ibb.co/F56hP1y/goes16-ir-96-L-202409212025.gif

They're probably trying to prevent the "I" curse from happening again, can't really blame them to be honest

Anybody in the NHC who would let nonsense like that affect their decisions should resign immediately.

NHC also upgraded Hermine 2022 from TD to TS, at a time when pre-Ian was almost ready to be named.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, idk, in my unprofessional opinion this storm has maintained globular convection for quite some time, and it does really look like a weak TS, even better than other classified storms in recent memory.

Maybe the question is, why did NHC become more conservative with naming (like, did they come under fire for naming shorties, or is the reason something else)?

[Europa non è lontana]

Maybe the question is, why did NHC become more conservative with naming (like, did they come under fire for naming shorties, or is the reason something else)?

Apparently, Michael Brennan changed policy when he became NHC director to not allow to be named storms which meet all criteria to be designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but which are forecast to last for less than 48 hours and not make land impacts. Needless to say, I find this highly disagreeable.

[ElectricStorm]

I agree this was probably a sheared TC, maybe we'll see a post season change.

[ChrisH-UK]

WISC had there real time intensity product has had it at tropical storm winds level but barely.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ry_IR.html

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not
become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains
embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical
depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become
better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to
10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure if this will get a post-season upgrade. It looked to be T2.0 and there didn't appear to be enough evidence (conclusively) of 35 kt or stronger sustained winds. The NHC doesn't usually upgrade to tropical depressions in post-season, since that doesn't really affect the stats. In real time, this would have probably been TD 9 and no more if they decided to issue advisories. It was far from land, never going to threaten land and the environment was horrible around it, so I can kinda see the thinking.