ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

115 mph... forecasted near landfall.....thats enough information for me to urge all those in...or near landfall....to seriously consider leaving...until Helene exits the region....(I edited 115 knots...to 115 mph....sorry for my error)...

[Anti-freeze]

Based on mythology I'd expect Helene to hit Troy, AL....

[Teban54]

115 kts forecasted near landfall.....thats enough information for me to urge all those in...or near landfall....to seriously consider leaving...until Helene exits the region....

I think you meant 115 mph, not 115 kt. That's a whole category's difference.

INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[TallyTracker]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

I’m a lifelong, born and raised Floridian. If it were me in the current center within 48 hours of impact for what is expected to be a major hurricane, I would not be planning to stay in a prefab home. At the very least I would be making the plans and preparing to evacuate to a more sturdy structure.

I second this. I’m in a regular house and I’m getting out. At a minimum, go crash with friends or family for a night. Liberty County is forecast to get hurricane conditions currently and is still at risk of getting the core if landfall occurs around St. George Island/Apalachicola.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Based on mythology I'd expect Helene to hit Troy, AL....

Hahaha this cracked me
Up
I think the storm is consolidating though. Looks to already be a large system imo.

[underthwx]

Shear is still absolutely ripping over Helene. I don’t think this was well forecast at all by the models. If it can’t establish an inner core and then hits the Yucatán, the bar for intensity will be much lower and more in line with the current NHC forecast.

I really expected a lot more by this point. A naked swirl was not on my bingo card today. The system still looks like complete mess

Read the current NHC update on newly formed Helene..the system has been a bit slow to get better organized...but its performing as advertised by the NHC....and yall here....this system will grow stronger and larger as it enters the gulf....115 kits predicted at or near landfall....this is a sketchy situation for sure....I live in texas...have my whole life...im far from the cyclone....but I gotta admit that this cyclone has me alarmed for all yall in harms way....yall be safe....do whatever you need to do now.....those of us who live in the impact zones of the world know all too well....just how serious these cyclones can be....and are....be safe...aware....prepared....

[Travorum]

Based on mythology I'd expect Helene to hit Troy, AL....

Hahaha, "The storm that launched a thousand ships"

[DunedinDave]

Well, I was wrong saying that the storm would bomb out overnight and explode. Instead, it looks sickly which is a good thing. The center of circulation is clearly seen running naked SW away from everything. So I'm not sure what's going to happen now. I would think a new center is going to have to form again closer to the convection but the old center is clearly moving away on visible.

[AnnularCane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zvS5rzMy/goes16-vis-09-L-202409241457.gif [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/KzfJSCfZ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-18-1.gif [/url]

12z GFS tracked that little exposed eddy/LLC and moved it WSW to W for next @18 hrs. The cloud mass continues to move to NW, this has to be the point where a new LLC could reform and change the track models like the GFS have been showing and NHC mentioned as a possibility at 11am.

That little swirl looks so delicately beautiful and innocent. Almost makes it hard to believe what is likely in store.

[Pipelines182]

Based on mythology I'd expect Helene to hit Troy, AL....

lol! I can see the spaghetti map now:

Why does that one line show it hitting Texas?
Ah, that's the XTRP, it just plots a straight line based on current movement.
Oh ok, what about that one that shows Helene hitting Troy?
Well that's the AMM, Ancient Mythology Model, it's....experimental

[Jr0d]

If I had a dollar everytime I heard someone say a developing storm is underperforming , then it turned into a beast a day or 2 later...

Ian south of Cuba got this a lot.

A minimal tropical storm is going to look ragged.

Until Helene is in the Gulf, it will 'struggle'.

The overall moisture envelope is expanding however.

[Frank P]

Well, I was wrong saying that the storm would bomb out overnight and explode. Instead, it looks sickly which is a good thing. The center of circulation is clearly seen running naked SW away from everything. So I'm not sure what's going to happen now. I would think a new center is going to have to form again closer to the convection but the old center is clearly moving away on visible.

Respectfully disagree, that is quite the vigorous vortex and the systems LLC, appears it pulling the convection slowly towards the center as it has become stationary.

[DunedinDave]

Well, I was wrong saying that the storm would bomb out overnight and explode. Instead, it looks sickly which is a good thing. The center of circulation is clearly seen running naked SW away from everything. So I'm not sure what's going to happen now. I would think a new center is going to have to form again closer to the convection but the old center is clearly moving away on visible.

Respectfully disagree, that is quite the vigorous vortex and the systems LLC, appears it pulling the convection slowly towards the center as it has become stationary.
https://i.ibb.co/ZmSDL1m/goes16-vis-g16meso1-4.gif

Looks different there. I was looking at the loop on NHC. It looks like it's moving away SW on their site. Still, even the one you posted, it's a naked swirl.

[Teban54]

Well, I was wrong saying that the storm would bomb out overnight and explode. Instead, it looks sickly which is a good thing. The center of circulation is clearly seen running naked SW away from everything. So I'm not sure what's going to happen now. I would think a new center is going to have to form again closer to the convection but the old center is clearly moving away on visible.

Respectfully disagree, that is quite the vigorous vortex and the systems LLC, appears it pulling the convection slowly towards the center as it has become stationary.
https://i.ibb.co/ZmSDL1m/goes16-vis-g16meso1-4.gif

From that frame alone, it also seems to me that the MLC may still be reasonably aligned with the LLC, just that the west half is largely devoid of convection. I could be wrong, though.

[WaveBreaking]

The LLC looks like it’s starting to pivot to the ESE/ENE now. Maybe it was just revolving around the MLC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi's video


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=7RFK1lENxv4

FYI...Levi is on team rotate

[xironman]

42056 starting to show the intensification of Helene, even though she is not really headed in that direction at the moment

[ElectricStorm]

Need to watch if it passes over the Yucatan or not. Will likely be significantly weaker if it does. Even if it misses this shouldn't really get going until it gets into the gulf so it seems like it's still on track to me.

If it avoids land interaction I think it'll get a little stronger than the NHC forecast (perhaps similar to Idalia) but if it tracks over the Yucatan it may struggle to become a major, which is what both 12z HAFS suggest

[DunedinDave]

The LLC looks like it’s starting to pivot to the ESE/ENE now. Maybe it was just revolving around the MLC.

Looking at visible on the NHC site, it's definitely not moving NW like it's supposed to. It appeared to have drifted SW and now it's kind of stationary or even more back east a little closer to the convection? I don't know if that's going to throw the track off. Is it going to be southerly now since it's northward movement is temporarily halted? Hopefully we'll get answers to that soon.

[3090]

On water vapor imagery it is still a mess.