ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Parts of Pinellas should be. I'm in Indian Rocks the very western edge in Pinellas. I would reckon it's gonna pass just as close here as it will Anclote.

Mandatory evacuations will probably be ordered tomorrow morning for the beaches and low-lying areas.

I think i just read somewhere that Flood zone A evacs have just been ordered

[HurricaneBelle]

Tampa wind probabilities holding at 72/32/7 so it's stay the course for the NHC. I'd imagine those should be about 5% higher along the Pinellas coast.

[WaveBreaking]

The dual VHTs are starting to gravitate closer to where the LLC is.

[Blown Away]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

[psyclone]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

Remarkable consistency. It gives me comfort that I get fringed but the folks up north...oh my...

[Travorum]

A look at the TDR center fix data provides good insight into the up-and-down pressure readings at buoy 42056 earlier this evening. You can see over the first three passes that the LLC is wobbling around the rough location of the buoy (19.82N 84.98W):

[emeraldislenc]

What type storm surge are they predicting for Tarpon Springs Florida?

[HurricaneRyan]

This could potentially rival the intensity of Helene 1988, or be the strongest iteration of Helene.

[weeniepatrol]

A look at the TDR center fix data provides good insight into the up-and-down pressure readings at buoy 42056 earlier this evening. You can see over the first three passes that the LLC is wobbling around the rough location of the buoy (19.82N 84.98W):
https://i.imgur.com/B9tj4vE.png

I'm a bit confused.. from the 11pm advisory:

Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.

[psyclone]

What type storm surge are they predicting for Tarpon Springs Florida?

5-8'. 6-10' next county north

[Bocadude85]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

I can’t think of a storm that will be moving NE towards that coast of western Florida that didn’t go a bit east of forecast.. I guess maybe Idalia?

[typhoonty]

A look at the TDR center fix data provides good insight into the up-and-down pressure readings at buoy 42056 earlier this evening. You can see over the first three passes that the LLC is wobbling around the rough location of the buoy (19.82N 84.98W):
https://i.imgur.com/B9tj4vE.png

I'm a bit confused.. from the 11pm advisory:

Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.

This is saying that the vortex is stacked vertically, which is a prerequisite to any significant strengthening event, as is currently expected.

[Noles2016]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

I can’t think of a storm that will be moving NE towards that coast of western Florida that didn’t go a bit east of forecast.. I guess maybe Idalia?

Usually, they're moving NE and getting ejected via a trough... not the case with this setup.

[typhoonty]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

I can’t think of a storm that will be moving NE towards that coast of western Florida that didn’t go a bit east of forecast.. I guess maybe Idalia?

Idalia did turn east at the last second, only one I can think of is Michael.

[ObsessedMiami]

If that absurd wind field keeps expanding, any chance for rougher than anticipated conditions in Metro Miami and Fort Lauderdale?

[Travorum]

A look at the TDR center fix data provides good insight into the up-and-down pressure readings at buoy 42056 earlier this evening. You can see over the first three passes that the LLC is wobbling around the rough location of the buoy (19.82N 84.98W):
https://i.imgur.com/B9tj4vE.png

I'm a bit confused.. from the 11pm advisory:

Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.

Yeah, tbh this has me confused as well. I'm not sure if I am interpreting the below data correctly, but it looks to me like the composite of all the passes had about a 10-20km horizontal distance between the 2km(LLC) center and 6km(MLC) center. Not sure if the NHC is looking at data I'm not or if I'm just interpreting it wrong:

[rigbyrigz]

The upgraded Tallahassee NWS regional forecasts are now out... of 15 sections the worst one is PERRY:

For: Inland Taylor County

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perry

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to
120 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday
afternoon until early Friday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Thursday
afternoon until early Friday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3
hurricane force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property
should now be underway. Prepare for
catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before
the wind becomes hazardous.

[Xyls]

Helene really looks like it is going to become the storm of record for Tallahassee, hunh?

[Bocadude85]

Can’t remember a hurricane where the path and landfall point has basically not moved for a few days.

I can’t think of a storm that will be moving NE towards that coast of western Florida that didn’t go a bit east of forecast.. I guess maybe Idalia?

Usually, they're moving NE and getting ejected via a trough... not the case with this setup.

Which is partially the case here, yes there is also a mid to upper level low that will influence the track but if the ridge to the east is slightly weaker or the turn back to the N or NNE is slightly delayed then watch out further down the coast..

[Xyls]

Looking at the IR right now and this latest convective burst looks nuts. Seems the pink cloud tops have given way as if the eye is clearing rapidly. What is going on LOL?