ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Wow, Helene looked quite messy just this afternoon, but it's really coming together in a hurry. NHC forecasting minimal hurricane strength in the next 12 hours and that seems about right but I'm surprised only a 10 mph increase in the 12 hours after that. I know it'll be daytime, but it has all the other factors in favor of higher.

[grapealcoholic]

It's bombing

[wx98]

I pretty much facepalmed when I read that.

I didn’t write that by the way, so you should edit your comment.

Edit: In AnnularCane’s post, it looks like I was quoted as saying something sweetpea said, now in this post it looks like someone else said it

[Beef Stew]

While I don't think she's quite there yet, I suspect that Helene is likely on the cusp of hurricane intensity presently.

[Poonwalker]

It looks like it might hit Yucatan. Now that a CDO is expanding we will not be able to see the center. Are there any radar loops in the area?

[Pipelines182]

It's bombing

Only if the center is in the middle of the convection, it’s been outside of it all day, we’ll know soon

[grapealcoholic]

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

wrapping around the south

[PavelGaborik10]

It's bombing

Only if the center is in the middle of the convection, it’s been outside of it all day, we’ll know soon

It doesn't need to be directly in the "middle" to "bomb" as things stand, though it's clearly well on its way there if not already....we're talking about a center that was literally exposed just early this evening.

[Jag95]

Judging by the radar it looks like it might just barely clip the Yucatan. I don't think that'll slow her down much. Cancun reporting NNE30 gusts to 45.

[Pipelines182]

It's bombing

Only if the center is in the middle of the convection, it’s been outside of it all day, we’ll know soon

It doesn't need to be directly in the "middle" to "bomb" as things stand, though it's clearly well on its way there if not already....we're talking about a center that was literally exposed just early this evening.

Sure it doesn’t have to be dead center, but there’s been convective blowups all day. The center was outside all of it up until the last recon, we still don’t know if it’s tucked in there or not.

[grapealcoholic]

the center is in the middle of convection judging by radar position

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 60 kt and 984 mb for the intensity at the intermediate advisory based on the most recent trends (they did mention 50 kt was likely conservative and it has only gone up since).

[grapealcoholic]

979 guess

[Hurricaneman]

We’ll know around 2am what’s going on with recon entering the area. I think 979mb and possible hurricane

[chaser1]

20.8 N & 86.2 W.
WNW motion to bring the center of Helene over the NE tip of Yucatan

[chaser1]

Landfall will have a nominal impact on its internal structure. I do wonder if a temporary stall as it emerges off the Nothern Yuc, might delay the storms northward motion enough to throw off timing with the trough?

[chaser1]

What exactly are your thoughts Majestic-12 [bot] ?

[chaser1]

Oops, looks like he tagged out and Google BOT in

[bob rulz]

Really has that shrimp look.

[chaser1]

Really has that shrimp look.

Yep; I'm guessing NHC will indicate "approaching hurricane strength", but not quite there