ATL: MILTON - Models

[otowntiger]

HMON
https://i.ibb.co/wd0cSyR/hmon-mslp-wind-14-L-30.png

Yeah the HMON has been showing significant dissipation well before landfall on a few runs now.

[StPeteMike]

I few like there is too many models depicting a track further north for the NHC not to nudge it a little more north at the 11 pm advisory. I totally get them not doing it at the 5 pm, but ICON now seems to be the outlier.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I few like there is too many models depicting a track further north for the NHC not to nudge it a little more north at the 11 pm advisory. I totally get them not doing it at the 5 pm, but ICON now seems to be the outlier.

Canadian is into Naples and UKmet into Ft Meyers.

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS-A also Clearwater late thursday morning, Atlantic exit near Kennedy Space Center

[Blown Away]

18z Euro right up Tampa Bay

The NE on the approach to @Tampa then somewhat an abrupt ENE turn across the state then into SW Atlantic seems a bit odd… I still think that track flattens out with a landfall closer to Ft. Myers then out near Ft. Pierce on a general NE track… JMHO

[Poonwalker]

Earlier I convinced myself this was going to be a south trending storm when I saw the consensus shifted that way. Sigh of relief I even voiced to some others. Now my gut is all knotted up.

[eastcoastFL]

I see that some models are showing significant weakening from whatever it turns out to be just before landfall. This is due to forecasted heavy shear. But I feel like I've been disappointed by shear forecasts too many times before. I feel like there's still too much time to put stock into that.

[skillz305]

18z Euro right up Tampa Bay

The NE on the approach to @Tampa then somewhat an abrupt ENE turn across the state then into SW Atlantic seems a bit odd… I still think that track flattens out with a landfall closer to Ft. Myers then out near Ft. Pierce on a general NE track… JMHO

Ugh I hope that’s the case.

It's not nice to say that since i live right above fort pierce in vero

[Teban54]

I see that some models are showing significant weakening from whatever it turns out to be just before landfall. This is due to forecasted heavy shear. But I feel like I've been disappointed by shear forecasts too many times before. I feel like there's still too much time to put stock into that.

Even this year, Francine and Helene were expected to be weakened by shear just before landfall at various forecast points, and neither verified.

In some cases, such as Ian, the pre-landfall weakening were also purely academic.

[StPeteMike]

The NE on the approach to @Tampa then somewhat an abrupt ENE turn across the state then into SW Atlantic seems a bit odd… I still think that track flattens out with a landfall closer to Ft. Myers then out near Ft. Pierce on a general NE track… JMHO

Ugh I hope that’s the case.

It's not nice to say that since i live right above fort pierce in vero

True, deleted! I just don’t want to see the storm surge projections come to reality in this area.

[jfk08c]

Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

[Kazmit]

Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

The strongest winds rarely make their way very far inland. Land imparts a lot of friction on wind which makes it lose momentum. Windspeeds are highest at sea because there’s nothing to slow it down. Compare that to land with all of its trees, buildings, and terrain that all work to stop the wind.

[Flwxguy86]

Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

I may be wrong but if you're looking at say Tropical Tidbits, I don't think it accounts for inland winds the way it does for over the ocean. I am not 100% sure but I believe that is the case that it's not coded to track inland winds the same as over the open ocean.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

18z GFS joins NAVGEM in showing hurricane conditions in Bermuda.

[cheezyWXguy]

Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

The strongest winds rarely make their way very far inland. Land imparts a lot of friction on wind which makes it lose momentum. Windspeeds are highest at sea because there’s nothing to slow it down. Compare that to land with all of its trees, buildings, and terrain that all work to stop the wind.

While I agree, I think the effect is over exaggerated on the models. Winds reduce substantially once you move inland from the coast, but it doesn’t drop from 100kt to 25kt in a couple of miles

[eastcoastFL]

I see that some models are showing significant weakening from whatever it turns out to be just before landfall. This is due to forecasted heavy shear. But I feel like I've been disappointed by shear forecasts too many times before. I feel like there's still too much time to put stock into that.

Even this year, Francine and Helene were expected to be weakened by shear just before landfall at various forecast points, and neither verified.

In some cases, such as Ian, the pre-landfall weakening were also purely academic.

Yep, that's the dilemma. They've even been doing research recently about storms which continued to intensify up to landfall and it happens a lot on the Gulf Coast of Florida. Id much rather that Milton never reaches major status than to have to bank on it weakening later. It's making it stressful to decide on a course of action for the storm.

If the models are wrong and then I suddenly have to leave because it's not weakening near landfall it's going to be too late. So goes the life of a Floridian I suppose.

[Steve]

Back to the models - early cycle guidance +/- Tampa and metro (ignore green tracks)

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Late cycle EPS 18z the same

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... l_late.png

Early cycle intensity guidance is cat 3/4 but notice the falloff before landfall. Cat 1 or 2 based on those.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[eastcoastFL]

Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

The strongest winds rarely make their way very far inland. Land imparts a lot of friction on wind which makes it lose momentum. Windspeeds are highest at sea because there’s nothing to slow it down. Compare that to land with all of its trees, buildings, and terrain that all work to stop the wind.

While I agree, I think the effect is over exaggerated on the models. Winds reduce substantially once you move inland from the coast, but it doesn’t drop from 100kt to 25kt in a couple of miles

You're correct. I was in loxahatchee for Frances Jeanne and Wilma. We had cat 2 winds from all 3 and Wilma was the worst one I experienced and it came from the opposite coast.

If you're inland and the eyewall passes over your location you will experience hurricane force winds. I think there are other models that show inland winds better.

[eastcoastFL]

Back to the models - early cycle guidance +/- Tampa and metro (ignore green tracks)

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Late cycle EPS 18z the same

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... l_late.png

Early cycle intensity guidance is cat 3/4 but notice the falloff before landfall. Cat 1 or 2 based on those.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

The black line is NHC?

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

If you're favorite model has changed because you don't like where it sends the storm then you might be doing something wrong.