ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

1:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 22.2°N 93.0°W
Moving: E at 6 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Milton already at 22.2, 11am predicted that would be reached at 12z…

[Argcane]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh brother. This almost feels Otis-like, but with much more water ahead of it

[Teban54]

Incredible improvement:

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843161388526748003


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843163294162649468

[bob rulz]

When is next recon?

[kevin]

When is next recon?

Recon just left a few minutes ago.

[Keldeo1997]

When is next recon?

Recon just left a few minutes ago.

Its a high level recon. Next recon is in about an hour

[Rail Dawg]

Us steadily-decreasing-in-numbers old-school met-types never considered the hurricane season over until the first real cold front got over the Gulf.

One front just tried and stalled creating that hurricane highway to Florida.

Please watch that red square in the eastern Pacific. It's going to be Nadine and the next major for Florida. Will be following the same highway it appears.

Been wrong lots and lots of times.

You guys are good!

Chuck

[kevin]

IR can be deceiving, but it does look like Milton has a super-tiny eye right now. I'm not gonna say the buzzword yet until recon arrives, but that's one impressive IR image.

[Rail Dawg]

Going to be a north-east moving buzz saw. Rather rare right?

That water sure is warm ahead. Can only imagine the heat energy stored.

Cat 5 potential.

Intensity forecasts are still more an art than what a computer spits out. Tracks the models nail quite well.

Chuck

[dukeblue219]

When is next recon?

Recon just left a few minutes ago.

Its a high level recon. Next recon is in about an hour

Departs in an hour (4am EDT) but won't arrive for a few hours after that. We'll only have satellite available for the 5am advisory.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

[GCANE]

Just checked latest GFS.
That UL Trof that Milton will be ahead of on approach is now forecasted to be negatively tilted.

[GCANE]

I think it will transition quickly over N FL and dump massive amounts of rain there and along the GA / SC coast and areas inland.
Likely this will be an epic flooding event for this region.

[GCANE]

Interesting effect I haven't seen before.
Hot towers are repeatedly being spawned at a particular location on the eyewall; i.e. the NW quadrant.

[GCANE]

Sure looks like it will get awfully close to the north shore of the Yucatan.

[FireRat]

Sure looks like it will get awfully close to the north shore of the Yucatan.

Something definitely worth watching, should Milton get too close as it bombs, it could be quite a nasty blow for the northern Yucatan.
Talk about a close shave!

[GCANE]

Milton is taking a big drink out of the EPAC juice
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[FireRat]

Us steadily-decreasing-in-numbers old-school met-types never considered the hurricane season over until the first real cold front got over the Gulf.

One front just tried and stalled creating that hurricane highway to Florida.

Please watch that red square in the eastern Pacific. It's going to be Nadine and the next major for Florida. Will be following the same highway it appears.

Been wrong lots and lots of times.

You guys are good!

Chuck

October in a year like this is also quite dangerous, classic setup for these monsters to form down in the Gulf or Caribbean and head NE towards Florida, and also Cuba perhaps later on in Oct or early Nov.

[GCANE]

Sure looks like it will get awfully close to the north shore of the Yucatan.

Something definitely worth watching, should Milton get too close as it bombs, it could be quite a nasty blow for the northern Yucatan.
Talk about a close shave!

Milton's track is dictated in large part by the Fujiwhara effect from the surface low in the NE GoM.
Hard to tell how far south it will fling Milton.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=