ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FireRat]

Milton's track is dictated in large part by the Fujiwhara effect from the surface low in the NE GoM.
Hard to tell how far south it will fling Milton.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Very interesting point! Should he sink lower than expected, South Florida should be on guard.
Here's the latest IR from GOES of Milton too...

[Canelaw99]

Just checked latest GFS.
That UL Trof that Milton will be ahead of on approach is now forecasted to be negatively tilted.

What impact, if any, would that have?

[sponger]

Looks like we will have an visible eye at sun up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir


Definitely breathing quite well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=wv_rgb

[GCANE]

Just checked latest GFS.
That UL Trof that Milton will be ahead of on approach is now forecasted to be negatively tilted.

What impact, if any, would that have?

I haven't directly seen this before so I am just speculating.
IMHO it would transition to extratropical very quickly over N FL.
This would create a massive and very quick rain dump.
It seems to be what GFS is forecasting.

[eastcoastFL]

4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 22.1°N 92.6°W
Moving: ESE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[Keldeo1997]

The first Surge Forecasts have come in and its... not good

[kevin]

ADT is having some issues with the eye, but the fixes that find the eye have a raw T# of 6.4. CDO is the coldest its been so far with an average temperature of -74C. Note that this is an incredibly low average temperature, even colder than Kirk's CDO at peak intensity. Hurricane models indicate that recon should find a 960 - 970 mb system with 88 - 113 kt winds depending on which model you use.

[kevin]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292773314636546079/image0.png?ex=6704f478&is=6703a2f8&hm=3dff7b7e9bc737d710e3ff9f11c2c4e954f1f153f49f6d52585ebbde2c87a7b6&

The first Surge Forecasts have come in and its... not good

A storm surge up to 12 ft would into TB would be near record breaking with the exception of the 1921 hurricane (11 ft) and of course the 1848 hurricane (15 ft).

[eastcoastFL]

This is one mean looking little guy. It feels like he’s just been glued to the BOC forever.




Wonder how close he will get to the Yucatán.

[underthwx]

Alot of the west coast of Florida now under hurricane watch...

[sponger]

Lots of lightning in that eye! Making its run for Cat 3.

[weeniepatrol]

This forecast so soon after Helene is one of the worst things I've ever seen

[eastcoastFL]

Both the NOAA and Air Force flights are en route now.

[eastcoastFL]

This forecast so soon after Helene is one of the worst things I've ever seen

https://i.imgur.com/fSdoPft.png

The Florida insurance crisis is about to go to the next level… whatever that is.

Does anyone know if Tampa general left their aqua wall up? I think it’s supposed to stop up to 15 ft of surge and this could push the limits

[kevin]

The cold CDO is now also fully wrapped around the northern eyewall. I have a feeling we could have a Delta-like recon mission ahead of us.

[eastcoastFL]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

[sponger]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

Still tiny but the transition to extratropical over Florida will change that.

[Hurricane Mike]

Morning Video Update on Milton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk8oYVfViAg

[TheDreamTraveler]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

Still tiny but the transition to extratropical over Florida will change that.

Eyewall replacement cycles as well. It seems to have already gone through one according to Eric Webb. Would probably expect at least another one potentially. It will definitely increase in size as it gets closer to Florida

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843161388526748003

[Jr0d]

Milton's track is dictated in large part by the Fujiwhara effect from the surface low in the NE GoM.
Hard to tell how far south it will fling Milton.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Very interesting point! Should he sink lower than expected, South Florida should be on guard.
Here's the latest IR from GOES of Milton too...

https://i.ibb.co/mtbLftM/Milton-Oct-7-2024.png

I am extremely uneasy about a significant impact in the lower Keys, while we got relatively mild tropical storm conditions from Debby and Helene, the potential for a greater impact from Milton is much higher.

This forecast margins are much closer. Key West us fairly far west, a delay in the NE turn, or even a shallower ENE turn will likely put the eyewall over us.

We got a little nire than expected from Debby, pretty much what we expected from Helene.

My concern lies in October storms historically often have greater forecast errors and east moving hurricanes in this area are something we rarely see.

While I have faith the models are seeing the NE turn tomorrow night, the next 36 hours will have a major hurricane tracking straight for us.

Hopefully by tonight I can feel confident in our decision to stay or leave. With the previous storms there was no consideration of evacuating.

I do fear one day our luck will run out and a major storm will take an unexpected turn towards the Keys, leaving no time for a proper evacuation.

That said I would gladly take the hut this time if it spares Tampa Bay and SW Florida still recovering from Ian the surge and worse wins, unfortunately the weather is going to go wherever the atmospheric dynamics take it, not where we wish cast it to go.