ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Yup, Milton's a Category 5 now.

Gauddamm.

[Sunnydays]

Unbelievable, Thats enough Milton, we see you.

[Beef Stew]

Cue special advisory in 3...2...1...

[InfernoFlameCat]

People went to bed with a cat 1. They are waking up to a cat 5 now. Unbelievable. And Milton isnt done by any means.

[cheezyWXguy]

Someone please give Milton his stapler back so we can stop this.

[Steve]

Amateur here. Could someone give me insight into the best guess of range of possible conditions/intensity on the east coast around Cape Canaveral? I have relatives that live just south of there and 2 miles inland and trying to decide how strong Milton will be in that area.

12z models are starting to run, and you'll know more once they have completed. ICON 12z exits Florida just south of Cape Canaveral in the 980's, so you would assume sustained TS conditions and certainly out over the river and at the coast the winds will be stronger. Local NWS and emergency offices will note evacuation zones as orders are issued. But overall they would probably get in a range of 4-8" of rain and you'd think at least gusts into the 60's there. NHC said rain will be more north of the center.

[zal0phus]

Wowwwww Milton you must want attention so bad

[Soluna16]

I actually don't even know what to say.

[Abdullah]

The dropsonde definitely will report something in the 920s range of mbar.

Getting below 925 mbar would mean it becomes the most intense storm in the Atlantic basin since Dorian 2019, which bottomed out at 910 mbar.

[tropicwatch]

Those 200mph sfmr have to be errors.

[chaser1]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this storm hit 900 mb. Pinhole eye makes rapid deepening possible.

Even with all of the tools at NHC disposal, we are watching live-time storm track motion and intensification which has seemed to defy model guidance. Time to throw all tools on the table.

The NAM 12km 12Z forecast shows a much slower, about 100 miles offshore Tampa at 60 hr (0Z Thurs) with Milton at 906 mb.
Given the broader value for NAM as it applies to analysis and forecasting CONUS weather patterns and conditions, I am less inclined to pay much attention to tropical related specifics. It may however provide some added insight regarding the timing progression or changes to Continental trough depth, upper level shear and moisture conditions as is presently forecast to occur by reliable hurricane models when Milton begins its approach to Florida.

[NDG]

And is beyond crazy that those Cat 5 winds are on the SW quadrant!!!

[TheHurricaneGod]

woke up around 6 AM this morning and it was only a C2. Now we have C5 support. Absurd

[GCANE]

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

158.2 knots (~ 182.0 mph)
Category Five Hurricane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Have we ever even seen a 200mph SFMR in the Atlantic basin?? I know it’s overcooked but wow.

[galaxy401]

People went to bed with a cat 1. They are waking up to a cat 5 now. Unbelievable. And Milton isnt done by any means.

Yeah that is me. Expected possibly a Cat 3 waking up but it's already a 5 now...

Milton will now smash Beryl's distinction of being the strongest storm of this season.

[AutoPenalti]

Those 200mph sfmr have to be errors.

Rain-tampered

[Highteeld]

Milton may end up being one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic ever

[FLpanhandle91]

Not sure what to write. Just a historic morning.

[Zonacane]

Have we ever even seen a 200mph SFMR in the Atlantic basin?? I know it’s overcooked but wow.

Irma, Dorian, and Maria