ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

AL, 14, 2024100718, , BEST, 0, 217N, 913W, 150, 909, HU,

I would do 155kts next update.

I think 175mph is okay considering lack of air force data right now.

[Kingarabian]

AL, 14, 2024100718, , BEST, 0, 217N, 913W, 150, 909, HU,

I would do 155kts next update.

I think 175mph is okay considering lack of air force data right now.

Yeah it won't matter much but Dvorak supports a T7.5 which would be 155kts and is believable.

[Abdullah]

My guess is that at 18z best track Milton is definitively (i.e. by pressure AND wind speed) the strongest atlantic hurricane this year.

Looks like it's definitively the strongest Atlantic hurricane so far in the 2020s!

[chaser1]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

Annihilation, severe injury or death comes to mind. It just depends. Following Hurricane Andrew in '92, there was a strict upgrade and change to building construction codes. That applied to all new construction going forward. I do not think those laws applied to existing structures. If new modifications were not implemented to an existing mobile home, I wouldn't stay in one during a Cat 4 hurricane.

[HurricaneBelle]

Here is the updated traffic map. Freeway congestion is starting to grow

https://i.imgur.com/6F7gztp.png

Getting on 19 in what Wilco calls the "bible-black pre-dawn" tomorrow morning.

[KirbyDude25]

AL, 14, 2024100718, , BEST, 0, 217N, 913W, 150, 909, HU,

I would do 155kts next update.

I think 175mph is okay considering lack of air force data right now.

Either way, it has surpassed Dorian's minimum pressure and is now the most intense Atlantic hurricane by pressure since Maria

[ScottNAtlanta]

I hope someone is on the ground ready to buy these people who are on these recon flights a beverage of their choice. They certainly deserve it.

[aspen]

I would do 155kts next update.

I think 175mph is okay considering lack of air force data right now.

Yeah it won't matter much but Dvorak supports a T7.5 which would be 155kts and is believable.

I think this might be another case where the BT is close to the intermediate advisory but the intensity at the full advisory is 5 kt higher. It’s happened before with other storms IIRC. We’ll just have to wait and see.

[404UserNotFound]

While this is active, where would I find 1-min imagery? Might be an interesting verification between top-of-cloud speeds (through image analysis) and recon data.

(Or others could save it; that works, too.)

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php This is a good place to go to for both storm floaters and mesoscale imagery.

RAMMB SLIDER (http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/) is much more customizable, with more products and multiple layers, but it can be a little buggy on mobile devices.

Sadly, RAMMB SLIDER keeps timing out for me, and the NESDIS images are nowhere near as zoomed in.

Eh, guess I'll keep downloading other people's images. It's not THAT important.

[Teban54]

My guess is that at 18z best track Milton is definitively (i.e. by pressure AND wind speed) the strongest atlantic hurricane this year.

Looks like it's definitively the strongest Atlantic hurricane so far in the 2020s!

It's ironic and almost absurd that 2020 had 30 tries to produce a Cat 5 and still failed, while 2024 casually produced two (maybe three), all of which are for history books, despite not even trying during the canonical peak season.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2024 Time : 174020 UTC
Lat : 21:40:12 N Lon : 91:20:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 7.6

ADT is obviously playing catchup, but the Raw T# tells a good story (that would be 160 kt).

[Abdullah]

What is the difference between "FIX" and "TAIL DOPPLER RADAR" for flight two and flight three today?

[chaser1]

Will the Plant City/Lakeland area be sufficiently far to evacuate? Have an option closer to Orlando, but not sure any safer or worth the extra driving.

I would appreciate advice on best routes, times for driving or better evacuation options from south Pinellas.

Would it make sense to go south over sunshine bridge then somehow work our way north and east?
Than you

Lakeland should be fine.

[norva13x]

Will the Plant City/Lakeland area be sufficiently far to evacuate? Have an option closer to Orlando, but not sure any safer or worth the extra driving.

I would appreciate advice on best routes, times for driving or better evacuation options from south Pinellas.

Would it make sense to go south over sunshine bridge then somehow work our way north and east?
Than you

Lakeland should be fine.

If you're in a mobile home in Lakeland I would still evacuate.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

What is the difference between "FIX" and "TAIL DOPPLER RADAR" for flight two and flight three today?

https://i.imgur.com/GPmHF4O.png

Just tail doppler adds a radar to the data transmitted.

[AutoPenalti]

Is Gonzo in the air?

[Bunkertor]

Next two missions will depart between 4 PM NOAA and 5 PM Air Force.

Air Force means 5pm z ?

[Michele B]

When people wake up in FL and see this, there is going to be panic to get out

There is. Gas stations empty. Roads bumper to bumper going north or east....

[CrazyC83]

Will the Plant City/Lakeland area be sufficiently far to evacuate? Have an option closer to Orlando, but not sure any safer or worth the extra driving.

I would appreciate advice on best routes, times for driving or better evacuation options from south Pinellas.

Would it make sense to go south over sunshine bridge then somehow work our way north and east?
Than you

Lakeland should be fine.

If you're in a mobile home in Lakeland I would still evacuate.

If in a mobile home anywhere in the Hurricane Watch area (or even the TS Watch area) I'd evacuate.

[ObsessedMiami]

When people wake up in FL and see this, there is going to be panic to get out

There is. Gas stations empty. Roads bumper to bumper going north or east....

Miami is not a bad alternative. Should be TS gusts correct?