ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[b0tzy29]

Kermit should be airborne any minute.

Sorry for the newb question, but where do you go to see the flight info?

[zal0phus]

I feel like recon will probably catch it just after it's peaked, as that's how these things tend to go. I'm thinking 895-905 mb as the post-peak intensity that they find.

[cheezyWXguy]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

If the eyewall collapses or an EWRC starts it may already be peaking now (operationally at least). If it holds I'll guess 887 mb.

At this point I think recon will make it in time. When the EWRC commences the eye will start wobbling more and start to loop. Still looks very stable to me

[StPeteMike]

https://i.imgur.com/2ihXc2O.gif

Getting some latitude now. Coast of Yucatán probably breathing a sigh of relief it’s not going to get closer.

[Longhornmaniac8]

NOAA42 is airborne. Godspeed, Kermit and crew.

[StPeteMike]

Just took the Howard Frankland bridge over to the airport. A normal drive would take me 25 minutes, a hour and 15 today. Glad to see many people taking the evacuations seriously.

[psyclone]

This storm is really targeting the areas that were originally targeted by Ian before it dipped south. I recall the initial hurricane watch was Englewood to Anclote.

[dukeblue219]

Kermit should be airborne any minute.

Sorry for the newb question, but where do you go to see the flight info?

For the plans and schedules: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

For live maps: https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi and https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[aspen]

It’s gonna be a close call, that’s for sure. Even if recon gets there and Milton’s pressure has leveled off or started to slowly rise, there should be enough data between both flights to easily extrapolate its peak intensity, similar to Patricia.

[MarioProtVI]

It’s gonna be a close call, that’s for sure. Even if recon gets there and Milton’s pressure has leveled off or started to slowly rise, there should be enough data between both flights to easily extrapolate its peak intensity, similar to Patricia.

It’ll be the most hyped mission since Eta’s IMO. Very well is sub-900 right now.

[mpic]

I hope the folks from Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee County wig out right now. If the officials are telling you to go, GO!!!!

Don’t be arrogant thinking you’ll be able to ride these things out. Hurricanes like this have a pretty good track record of handing out plenty of Darwin Awards. Ike did the same thing to a lot of people when I was a pre-teen. Folks that heard it would be a “large Category 2 with 17 feet of storm surge” only heard the “Category 2”. A lot of people in Bolivar and Galveston lost their lives this way. So heed the warnings in excess!!!

I agree! I was in Galveston County at the time and left for a friend's about 50 miles north. It was bad enough there and I was so glad that I didn't put myself through the emotional pain of staying put in a mobile home that only took roof damage.

[wxman57]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

I think this will end up like Francine and Helene. Storm encountering a jet core near landfall has lower sustained wind at the surface but gusts nearly twice that. Yeah, I don't expect any hurricane force sustained wind in Orlando, but they may see gusts over 100 mph. Gusts can do a lot of damage.

[ConvergenceZone]

Still thinking 110 to 115 mph at landfall, but I don't think the NHC will bring down the windspeed until they are fairly certain about how insane the shear will be. Shear can weaken smaller storms quicker. Even if it grows a little bit after a ERC, it's not going to be a Helene in terms of size.


Disclaimer: this is not an official forecast, just an opinion. Stick to the NHC for official forecasts.

[tolakram]

saved loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[wxman57]

Kermit should be airborne any minute.

Sorry for the newb question, but where do you go to see the flight info?

Welcome! Try Levi's Tropical Tidbits page: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[tolakram]

[chaser1]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

[CrazyC83]

It could be one of the roughest rides of their careers for the Hurricane Hunters in these next flights. I hope everything is strapped down extra tight, since they are in for a roller coaster ride.

[Rail Dawg]

Many folks in the target zone won't start evacuating until 24 hours prior to landfall.

It must be a human-nature thing.

Roads will be clear heading out of town and then suddenly everyone realizes they need to leave.

Lots of folks don't have the money or ability to leave.

All the reserve power-restoring workers are up in the Helene destruction-zone. Usually in a big hurricane you will see thousands of trucks/workers staged in a safety zone ready to come in after the storm.

We would meet them coming in like an army cutting their way in as we cut our way out.

There was always a small celebration as both sides knew they had a clear path ahead.

Resources to get power back are now stretched to the limits.

And the hurricane season isn't even over yet.

Chuck

[got ants?]

What was that blob to the NE to .ilton?