ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Definitely a significant weakening trend this pass, not even 140kts FL on AF plane

Something is "off". How do we go from 180mph to less then 140mph in that short a period? Sounds like undersampling to me.

[wx98]

They did put 897 in the advisory though, although it seems a bit behind the game at this point.

[WaveBreaking]

NHC has this at 897 mb...

...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

[syfr]

Yeah, I image it's quite a challenge to hit the center in a sub-5 nm eye. Remember the plane is facing extreme buffeting coming into the eye, the whole thing is moving,.

I remember one of the pilots quotes "it's like riding a roller coaster through a car wash"

[Category5Kaiju]

Welp, there ya go. 897 mbar.

[KWT]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

Yeah thats pretty obvious on this. They key to see is whether the inner eyewall holds on and the outer contracts into it (Irma to this day is one of the most impressive versions of that) or whether the inner core erodes like Wilmas did.

With such a small core you can expect rapid fluctuations.

[NDG]

It is probably going to weaken some, not due to shear or dry air, but colder water. The area near the Yucatan isn't known for being warm and deep, very likely upwelling will keep it from the 800's till back into deeper warmer water. The hurricane models show this as well.

If it was to stall yes upwelling would cause it to weaken but as long as it keeps moving it will continue moving over warm waters.

[Frank P]

An EWRC this early would still give Milton plenty of time over the Gulf Stream to crank back up, expand its wind field and increase its surge potential. It may not ever get back to sub 900 mb again but it really doesn’t need to in creating catastrophic and deadly storm surges along the west coast. A large high end CAT 3 hitting just north of Tampa Bay would be historical regarding storm surge, along with the hurricane force winds going well inland.

[eastcoastFL]

Will the 7 PM advisory still report the 898 mb? It would kind of suck if they rolled with the 903 and entirely ignored the real peak

They went with the last confirmed center drop 897mb

[weeniepatrol]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292998334809767986/MILTON_AF302_1114A_flw_202410072352.png?ex=6705c609&is=67047489&hm=aba2eb9a1299d41081dd8135df794a26e870761d4442f98e95318552e40df95c&

There's your double wind maxima.

Looks like it’s only about 15 miles or so from the center, eyeballing it. Fairly small outer eye suggests this shouldn’t be very disruptive cycle.

[WaveBreaking]

Welp, there ya go. 897 mbar.

Now ranked #5 in the basin

[Exalt]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

That is a huge new eyewall

[norva13x]

As far as the media goes, even weakening to a cat 3 this will still be devastating to the area and a near worst case scenario for many

[johngaltfla]

Sweet Jeezus....

[Exalt]

An EWRC this early would still give Milton plenty of time over the Gulf Stream to crank back up, expand its wind field and increase its surge potential. It may not ever get back to sub 900 mb again but it really doesn’t need to in creating catastrophic and deadly storm surges along the west coast. A large high end CAT 3 hitting just north of Tampa Bay would be historical regarding storm surge, along with the hurricane force winds going well inland.

I was thinking it might be worse than Katrina for the middle part of FL

[Laser30033003]

I'm surprised with the strength of Storm and the height of the storm search that Pinellas County only has evacuations for A, B, and C....

[KWT]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

That is a huge new eyewall

Remember it's early stages and will contract itself further yet. Probably not going to be too big once fully formed though.

[HDGator]

Definitely a significant weakening trend this pass, not even 140kts FL on AF plane

Not true.
NOAA2 measured 151 kts FL on its last inbound pass.
There is no "significant weakening"; don't mislead people.

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA eye drop supports 901mb, a 4mb increase since the last drop