ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

I’m not so sure about that. We are coming to the point when a higher weight will be placed on what the storm is actually doing. In real life it looks like the storm is hugging the right side of the forecast. It matters more what the storm is actually doing now than what models say it should do.

[jhpigott]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

Agree. Been watching these for a long time. Almost always when they start trending more east they stay that way. Very unusual to bend back west in modeling in east Gulf.

It would be interesting to hear 57s thoughts on this issue

[Flwxguy86]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

Agree. Been watching these for a long time. Almost always when they start trending more east they stay that way. Very unusual to bend back west in modeling in east Gulf.

The 00z HWRF I am looking and the canadian look very much like Southern Pinellas county landfalls, st pete beach area, maybe just over the skyway but then again, This late in the game I tend to kind of "throw the models out" and just watch satellite, Too me personally it looks to be making a bee line for Seista Key down to Venice somewhere.

[Bocadude85]

I think its the other way around, hence the nudge northward of the cone with the latest update. Hopefully dry air and the strong sheer will begin to weaken Milton today before eventual landfall.

The cone was not nudged northward on the 11pm update..

look at the 2am update

The NHC does not release new tracks on intermediate advisories. All they do is update the position.

Speaking of which Milton is still running east of the 11pm track

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

[FLLurker32]

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

Agree. Been watching these for a long time. Almost always when they start trending more east they stay that way. Very unusual to bend back west in modeling in east Gulf.

The 00z HWRF I am looking and the canadian look very much like Southern Pinellas county landfalls, st pete beach area, maybe just over the skyway but then again, This late in the game I tend to kind of "throw the models out" and just watch satellite, Too me personally it looks to be making a bee line for Seista Key down to Venice somewhere.

It’s currently in one of the exact locations the HWRF showed on the 00z run. It took a more North of East jog to get there too. We will have to see if that’s a jog or the new direction.

[otowntiger]

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

Agree. Been watching these for a long time. Almost always when they start trending more east they stay that way. Very unusual to bend back west in modeling in east Gulf.

It would be interesting to hear 57s thoughts on this issue

i believe he has said on multiple occasions that in this set up you almost always see earlier/ sharper east/ further south turns than predicted.

[chaser1]

Here's a quirky observation. I'd be really curious to know more about the causation of "the blob" that amazingly continues to maintain itself outside of Milton's core circulation. As I watch the satellite loops over and over, the thought comes to me as to in what way (if any) even if only slight, does this "blob" impact the hurricane itself. Could it impact forward motion in any minute way? Or what about intensity? One thing that I think an argument could be made for however, is that this ongoing convective feature certainly appears to aid in injecting a good deal of additional warm air into the upper atmosphere. As it it, we can see how Milton's outflow continues to be increasingly restricted on its left side as the dryer air slowly creeps closer impinging on the storms westerly outflow. It almost appears to me that this convective blob to the north (NE) of the storm is somewhat aiding or contributing the hurricane's effort to exhaust outflow while protecting the storms core in the northwest quadrant. The overall added impact or affect that I am proposing might just be the difference between a rapidly weakening hurricane becoming extratropical a few hours prior to landfall, and an intense hurricane maintaining its core up to and including landfall. Anyways, its just a thought......

[ElectricStorm]

14L MILTON 241009 0600 23.8N 85.9W ATL 140 908

[sponger]

I must say I did not expect the core to look this good this close to landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

[ElectricStorm]

Down to 910 extrap and not quite to the center yet but not far off

[AxaltaRacing24]

I must say I did not expect the core to look this good this close to landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

I certainly did not expect a sub 920mb category 5 with under 23 hours left until landfall. Yes, it’ll weaken, but still.

[chaser1]

I must say I did not expect the core to look this good this close to landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

I certainly did not expect a sub 920mb category 5 with under 23 hours left until landfall. Yes, it’ll weaken, but still.

I agree with both points. 2024... what a crazy ass-clown of a hurricane season

[chaser1]

Look at those -80 pinks on IR expanding around center. This tight inner core of this hurricane has certainly not expanded thus far.

[ElectricStorm]

907 extrap

[AxaltaRacing24]

I must say I did not expect the core to look this good this close to landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

I certainly did not expect a sub 920mb category 5 with under 23 hours left until landfall. Yes, it’ll weaken, but still.

This season has turned into 2017 2.0, but even more unbelievable since it was a month later. Oh, we also had a cat 5 in late-June.

[Hurricane2022]

907.0 extrap

[Bocadude85]

The first of many to come I’m sure.


Tornado Warning
FLC021-090745-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0038.241009T0714Z-241009T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 345 AM EDT.

* At 312 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cape Romano, or 10 miles south of Marco Island,
moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Marco Island, Cape Romano, Key Marco, and Goodland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2597 8173 2595 8155 2582 8157 2582 8174
2583 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 186DEG 18KT 2579 8166

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

[jhpigott]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

The eye is coming into range on the sfwmd radar link

[NDG]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

[galaxy401]

Ugh no sign of Milton weakening yet. Should start to weaken in the morning but many more factors will come into play with the impact. Still quite nerve-wracking how several models show a Tampa hit.