ATL: MILTON - Models

[NDG]

Close up look at 0z Euro which now has Milton making landfall in southern Pinellas County/Tampa Bay.

[Fancy1002]

That euro run is really bad for both Tampa and Orlando

[chaser1]

The only thing i'll say about that EURO run (and I believe applies to all other global model runs), is that each of them have this hurricane initialized too weak. Only the regional HAFS models seem to correctly or more closely mirror present strength. How that might play into their respective model forecasts, I do not know.

[Poonwalker]

It’s unreal the models keep showing a more northern landfall. I can’t figure this out. How can they all be wrong?

[sponger]

It’s unreal the models keep showing a more northern landfall. I can’t figure this out. How can they all be wrong?

It is most likely they are not wrong and have a good handle on the setup.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s unreal the models keep showing a more northern landfall. I can’t figure this out. How can they all be wrong?

It is most likely they are not wrong and have a good handle on the setup.

What about the NHC track? How likely is that to verify?

[jhpigott]

Interested to see what the NHC does with the track. This radar loop and track overlay speak for themselves. Comfortably east of the forecast track and early to the forecast point

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[chris_fit]

06z ICON continues with northern solution

[kevin]

New GFS south.

[robbielyn]

New GFS south.

https://i.imgur.com/VKVoqd0.png

GFS finally gave up in its stubborn streak to go in it northerly direction. i think the canadian which always had it south did good.

[chris_fit]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

[CronkPSU]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

https://i.imgur.com/8rdVIMi.png

So it only south cause of a really really weird SE movement just before landfall, not comforting

[kevin]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this?

https://i.imgur.com/8rdVIMi.png

Very weird indeed. Whatever happens, I strongly doubt that it'll wobble like this. If the 06z Euro also shows this I might give it some weight, but for now I don't know. We're now literally wobble watching on models as well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

https://i.imgur.com/8rdVIMi.png

So it only south cause of a really really weird SE movement just before landfall, not comforting

Looks like he bumps up against the boundary and unwinds fast. Massive expansion soon after landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

https://i.imgur.com/8rdVIMi.png

So it only south cause of a really really weird SE movement just before landfall, not comforting

Could it verify, yes, should anyone make decisions or think its going do down that way, no.

[USTropics]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

https://i.imgur.com/8rdVIMi.png

So it only south cause of a really really weird SE movement just before landfall, not comforting

Could it verify, yes, should anyone make decisions or think its going do down that way, no.

We're seeing the 06z GFS model suite really thinking this will degrade significantly before landfall. Shocking adjustment in the ensembles in just 1 forecast period and at such a critical juncture:
GFS 00z


GFS 06z


Let's see if this is a trend in later model guidance at 06z (especially the hurricane models that have the ability to handle the mesoscale/internal structure changes a bit better).

[NDG]

06z GFS shows weakening much sooner than previous run thus a hook to the east further south into Sarasota landfall.

[USTropics]

Yea I'm starting to think the GFS isn't too far off its rocker (at least for track). Look at the these jumps in position on the hurricane models from 00z to 06z (HAFSB sniffed this out last cycle, so not much change):

[NDG]

Latest 06z Euro shows southern Pinellas County, I am not sure about timing, it will really have to start slowing down later today to be so late.

[HurryKane]

NAVGEM continues to be alone in showing a tropical landfall on Bermuda. All the other models show full absorption by the front or, at most, a strung-out subtropical system.

https://i.imgur.com/vKVHu1G.png

If the NAVGEM shows it then I think it's safe to plan for a nice day on the beach. Facetious of course. Mostly.

Forgive me if there’s a better thread for this (and I’ll happily relocate it if so), why is NAVGEM looked down upon so much?