ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

[GCANE]

Satellite W-Band Radar about 1.5 hrs ago

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... s18_85.png

[birdwomn]

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Absolutely. I think the reflection in surface pressure rises will be dramatic and commence sooner than I had expected. In fact, given the satellite presentation, I am beginning to wonder if extratropical transition might well begin a good deal earlier and prior to landfall, than forecasted while traversing the peninsula?

Perfect storms like Milton are more vulnerable to shear during EWRC, in fact the core winds can actually collide if the shear was strong enough but that is a miracle scenario that practically never happens.

Praying for that miracle!

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/TONYxTWO/status/1843824020602662967

[eastcoastFL]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/DyDjFskj/IMG-9591.jpg

That’s a lot of wobbles to the right.

[GCANE]

Video taken from a cargo ship in the midst of hurricane #Milton (category 5), which is heading towards Florida .


 https://x.com/DanieleDann1/status/1843976706404794422

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1843975809364885518

[USTropics]

Absolutely. I think the reflection in surface pressure rises will be dramatic and commence sooner than I had expected. In fact, given the satellite presentation, I am beginning to wonder if extratropical transition might well begin a good deal earlier and prior to landfall, than forecasted while traversing the peninsula?

Perfect storms like Milton are more vulnerable to shear during EWRC, in fact the core winds can actually collide if the shear was strong enough but that is a miracle scenario that practically never happens.

Praying for that miracle!

It's been dealing with the shear so far, I think the question will be can the shear also entrain dry air today? That would lead to a more significant weakening event (06z GFS ensembles) instead of a more gradual one (00z ECMWF ensembles). This is definitely going to need a southern adjustment to the NHC cone at 11AM imo (see the models thread on 06z guidance coming in further south/east).

[GCANE]

DELETED: The picture on the left is clearly AI. Remember, if you repost a tweet, you own it. - admin

[Sciencerocks]

[TampaWxLurker]

There's an area of coast, South of Sarasota and North of Charlotte Harbor, that's much, much less densely populated. There's some towns, Osprey, Venice, Englewood, but it's night and day vs the build-up around downtown Sarasota. If Milton somehow gets all the way down there, we may do okay (generally speaking) for wind damage. Except of course the surge will be much worse into Charlotte Harbor and areas south.

A Cat 4 hitting Sarasota... Would be quite bad. We'll see if the trend continues.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843658643738374232

[eastcoastFL]

Is the NOAA flight having some instrument issues?

[psyclone]

Milton looks like it's about to unravel and spread that drill bit energy into a bigger windfield. And of course it's right of track because...that's just how it tends to go. Don't bet against persistence... high risk of flash flooding north of the track...huge surge south. Big winds for everyone. This is going to be a huge mess at a minimum

[NDG]

So tracking the recons fixes from 1:39 AM to 6:37 AM ET, Milton is heading on a 39 deg heading, a little left of true NE direction, if it keeps this heading it will make landfall in Longboat Key/Bradenton.
Based on the distance it has traveled, Milton is now moving at least above 17 mph. If it keeps up this speed, landfall will be near 8-9 PM tonight, much sooner than what global models show and much closer to the latest 06z hurricane models.

[eastcoastFL]

There might be a bit of dry air intrusion to the west of center. It’s hard to tell for sure but man he is really deviating to the east right now.

[GCANE]

Trof is becoming negatively tilted
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[kevin]

Forecast was right through 25N/85W. Dropsondes indicate Milton passed 85W at 24.8N. SO about 0.2 degrees or 15 miles south of the forecast track. Still south, but starting to move closer to the track (also the not-adjusted track before 5am) than a few hours ago.

[chaser1]

Perfect storms like Milton are more vulnerable to shear during EWRC, in fact the core winds can actually collide if the shear was strong enough but that is a miracle scenario that practically never happens.

Praying for that miracle!

It's been dealing with the shear so far, I think the question will be can the shear also entrain dry air today? That would lead to a more significant weakening event (06z GFS ensembles) instead of a more gradual one (00z ECMWF ensembles). This is definitely going to need a southern adjustment to the NHC cone at 11AM imo (see the models thread on 06z guidance coming in further south/east).

Yep, I think we're on the same page there My concern would be whether if such a dramatic level of weakening to the core structure were to occur, if that would result in an unexpectedly early eastward motion of a rapidly filling LLC (and the MLC continuing moving more NE resulting in an increasingly stretched North-South vertical displacement)? I'd be curious to see what the shallow BAM would depict for motion.

[NDG]

Storms are really starting to fill in to the east an north east

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Those cells look very tornadic.