ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

longer saved radar loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[MGC]

Key will be how quickly Milton to recover from the eyewall replacement. Hurricane appears a bit north of track headed for Tampa Bay area. A few miles either way can make a huge surge difference.

My sister lives near Loraida and I understand a large tornado passed near there. I have not been able to reach her on the phone since. Hope the tornado took out her cell phone tower and not her......MGC

[NDG]

For Milton to track across Sarasota, it will have to change its heading to 56 degrees right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks to be slowing down a little. Heading directly for Tampa Bay.

Perhaps 6 hours left to reintensify a little.

I think landfall in closer to 3 hrs. It's doing the opposite of intensifying now. Plane found only 85 ks (100 mph) in NE quadrant. Wind field is larger. Not an optimal angle for max surge into Tampa Bay. Wind remains out of the NE in Tampa Bay. That's good. The number of tornadoes was a surprise today. I'm liking the long-range models better now, showing a fairly strong cold front making it all the way to the NW Caribbean by late next week.

Need it to protect the USA and buy us more time for the season to end. Would be great news.

[tolakram]

Milton has yet to be south of any forecast point.

[Chemmers]

Is there going to be another recon mission

[kevin]

The faster Milton goes the less time there will be for it to turn east. Milton was already north of the 21z position most models at 19:50z. The only ones that are close to its position are the Euro/ICON/HMON... We really need to see some NE movement or E wobbles soon.

[johngaltfla]

For Milton to track across Sarasota, it will have to change its heading to 56 degrees right now.

Ain't happening.

[sponger]

This thing is coming North. Still a chance to miss Tampa Bay but we are running out of time.

[mpic]

Man, what a huge relief the way this thing has fallen apart today.

I agree that calling it a cat 3 at 4PM advisory will likely be generous.

No I'm not sounding the all clear, yes I know there will still be suffering, and that sucks. I'm not remotely saying its gonna be a non-event - but we all know a Cat2 is going to be far, far less damaging than what it looked like it was going to be at this time yesterday.

At this point, with the surge and tornado damage, how much will it really matter? The damage will be more than we can imagine. I can only think that if it was my house that got swept away or destroyed by surge, it wouldn't be any better that the winds didn't come and blow the pieces around that the surge left behind. Either way I'd lose everything.

Well it does matter to me and about 2.5 million neighbors of mine that have zero risk of our houses lost to storm surge, and miraculously have not been hit by the many tornadoes. Reason being that each person has their own particular possessions, cars, homes, and family and I won't fault them for feeling a sense of relief if the risk of severe wind damage becomes less foreboding or a threat.

I can understand that point. I was more talking about in surge areas. Be safe.

[kevin]

Recon just left, do we know when the next one will arrive?

[jhpigott]

Tornado warned cell about to go right over PBI

[Kazmit]

Gotta say, the HAFS twins have been on point all along. Predicted the sub-900 bombing out, its second cat 5 peak, and now its quick unraveling and northern movement.

[jfk08c]

Last few frames of radar show that its on track

[tolakram]

Now IS the time for wobble watching. It appears almost stalled, so I think it will turn. I could be just hoping of course.

[Aggiemon96]

Naples EarthCam has been fascinating to watch the last couple of hours.

https://www.youtube.com/live/AfBG8vB9Jws?si=oqLTccKXbOaF5oUT

[FLpanhandle91]

EWRC seems to have completed. New eye appears to be 25 to 30 miles across. No more concentric eyewalls on radar. Those new -90s north of the COC may assist those winds in mixing down to the surface. Poor timing for folks in his path especially given his forward speed. Chances are he will be steady state or intensifying modestly at landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

Radar velocities in the northern eyewall increasing rapidly.

[TampaWxLurker]

Now IS the time for wobble watching. It appears almost stalled, so I think it will turn. I could be just hoping of course.

https://i.imgur.com/BJgL9VS.gif

Looks like the possible start of a turn to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

EWRC seems to have completed. New eye appears to be 25 to 30 miles across. No more concentric eyewalls on radar. Those new -90s north of the COC may assist those winds in mixing down to the surface. Poor timing for folks in his path especially given his forward speed. Chances are he will be steady state or intensifying modestly at landfall.

Steady maybe, but not intensifying, not with this shear.