Texas Fall 2024

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 256 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

By Tuesday evening, the upper-level ridge overhead will be
flattened/suppressed over the south-central and southwest U.S.
while the remnants of the upper-level low (currently over the
Four-Corners Region) moves across the Great Lakes. In the wake of
this departing trough, a quick moving shortwave will drop
southward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains. The
associated surface low will drag a cold front southeastward into
the Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately,
this front is unlikely to gain much ground before stalling well to
our north.

As North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of
broad scale ridging/subsidence, Wednesday is likely to be the
warmest day of the extended period. With 850 mb temperatures
forecast to rise by an average of 4 to 6C, afternoon temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Within the prevailing
dry WNW pattern aloft, temperatures will remain around 10 to 15
degrees above climate normals through at least the end of the work
week.

A shortwave trough will translate from the northern California
coast to the Plains on Thursday, resulting in troughing in the
lee of the northern Rockies and sending another dry cold front
southward through the Plains. There continues to be a fair amount
of uncertainty in how far the front will progress into North Texas
on Saturday, with the latest run of the NBM suggesting the front
will sag towards the I-20 corridor. This would result in a subtle
temperature gradient by the afternoon with areas behind the front
seeing highs in the lower 80s while the rest of the region warms
into the mid/upper 80s.

The upstream pattern looks to remain somewhat progressive late
this weekend and into early the following week as a more amplified
upper trough ejects from the eastern Pacific and into the Pacific
Northwest. Could this be the answer to our persistent warm and
dry pattern of late? Only time will tell! However, it should be
noted that with no precipitation currently forecast for this
period, this month remains on track to be the driest October on
record at DFW and the second driest on record at Waco. (Waco
recorded a trace of rain on the 16th)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

2023 and 2024 have been experiencing a significant temperature spike globally and the Arctic has been excessively warm. It's just not easy to be relatively "cold" when your cold source is too warm. It's been hard enough to be below normal anytime of the year for more than a decade in a sustained fashion, even harder when the base state increased is even more raised now. It's been the transition months really been the effected players that gets to us. May gets hotter sooner and October stays hotter later.

A staunch mid continental ridge has been dominating the core of the US and Canada for months on end now also does not help. You'll have breaks with it but heights overall remain higher than normal. Basically it's been warm at the surface AND well above our heads.

All that said it will eventually get cold. Lasting? We'll have to wait and see if cold can actually build in Canada. We're not talking about just "freezing" temps up there, needs to be a vast anomalous pool of cold.

The mid continental ridge has been off the chart strong, and you are absolutely correct with the surface and atmospheric heat. When it's hot top to bottom, that's all you get, and with that comes the drought, which we are in.
The forecast for the next 2 weeks does no favors for October, we could see a unprecedented October for hottest and driest on record.

Yep. Also, the arctic has so much less ice, much more difficult for the cold air to build.

[Stratton23]

Not worried about the cold air, we will see plenty of that in the winter, i am becoming more encouraged with what im seeing in the models in regards to a pattern change, over the past few days the trend has been for our continental ridge to break down and allow for more troughing to develop in its wake , while precipitation chances arent great yet, i do at least see chances for rain returning in the medium range

[Ntxw]

In terms of Halloween, models are showing a front the day/night before so Halloween itself may be closer to normal. While not as impressive as some prior runs do expect some cool air around that frame. Then return flow for a warm up until the next potential trof.

[starsfan65]

In terms of Halloween, models are showing a front the day/night before so Halloween itself may be closer to normal. While not as impressive as some prior runs do expect some cool air around that frame. Then return flow for a warm up until the next potential trof.

so 80's after Halloween?

[Ntxw]

In terms of Halloween, models are showing a front the day/night before so Halloween itself may be closer to normal. While not as impressive as some prior runs do expect some cool air around that frame. Then return flow for a warm up until the next potential trof.

so 80's after Halloween?

As of right now, yes.

[Stratton23]

CMC looks to have a more impressive cold front for halloween, front just now clearing SE texas on the 31st

[CaptinCrunch]

In terms of Halloween, models are showing a front the day/night before so Halloween itself may be closer to normal. While not as impressive as some prior runs do expect some cool air around that frame. Then return flow for a warm up until the next potential trof.

so 80's after Halloween?

IF, there is a front that actually makes into NTX, it will only cool us off to a normal October 31 temp which is 72 degrees. The question will be, will the ridge finally have weakened enough to no longer be a consistent thorn in our Fall?

[cstrunk]

My outdoor wedding is on Nov. 2nd. It seems pretty likely that we'll be in the 80's during the afternoon with temps falling off to comfortable temps in the evening. But most importantly, no rain, although I wish we could get some in the forecast for any other day. It's still 12 days out so we'll see.

[Stratton23]

It seems models are coming into agreement that our extremely stubborn ridge is going to break down and allow for troughing to dive down from NW canada, should bring some cooler air and hopefully introduce some rain chances

[South Texas Storms]

My outdoor wedding is on Nov. 2nd. It seems pretty likely that we'll be in the 80's during the afternoon with temps falling off to comfortable temps in the evening. But most importantly, no rain, although I wish we could get some in the forecast for any other day. It's still 12 days out so we'll see.

The ensemble data is actually in decent agreement that a trough will be located over the Rockies the first weekend of November. If that verifies we should have at least some rain chances around then.

[Brent]

TWC app is much cooler and unsettled to start November for several days

Well see

[gpsnowman]

TWC app is much cooler and unsettled to start November for several days

Well see

Let's hope so. The inevitable "Worst October ever" is entering the vernacular.

[Stratton23]

If the Euro AIFS is to be believed, then we could be in for a rather chilly first week of november with multiple shots of chilly canadian air

[Fifty Rock]

I’m really hoping that we get a change and have cooler weather coming in the first few days of November. I’m having my knee replaced November 5th and not looking forward to it, sure would prefer the cooler weather to recover in.

[Stratton23]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848 ... 48155?s=46

Very interesting read from Eric Webb on a caveat that could have drastic changes to what kind of a setup we see in the upper air pattern over NA for late fall- into winter

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?s=46

Very interesting read from Eric Webb on a caveat that could have drastic changes to what kind of a setup we see in the upper air pattern over NA for late fall- into winter

As I've analyzed these winters, and become more educated on them, i think a -PNA winter can be a good winter signal for Texas. Upper level lows that race down just east of the 4 corner region is a great for you, if it brings down enough cold air. As the lows kick out, it can tap into moisture from the pacific, the eastern side of the low usually has plenty of divergence for lift. This is a good sign for you guys.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard “today is the last day of the 90s!” Lies.

[Brent]

I remember when the 90s were gonna be over in September. 2024 has been the year of weather lies

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard “today is the last day of the 90s!” Lies.

To me it started in January with that storm that was supposed to be 10 inches

Then the snow hole in February(again for the second winter in a row)

I mean yeah the summer wasnt as bad as last year technically but since September all ive heard is no more 90s and yet here we are. Our latest is next week... It's never happened in November here

This has probably been the two most annoying years of weather I've ever followed tbh. Like I know at some point we're gonna have a snowy winter again but I'd like to know what decade

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 238 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/
/Wednesday through Sunday/

Upper ridging develops in the wake of the departing upper low
through the middle of the week and some continued boundary layer
warming will result in hot temperatures for late October and daytime
highs will approach record levels both Wednesday and Thursday.

Shortwave trough moves through the central Plains by Friday, which
will drag a surface cold front south, but latest deterministic runs
of the GFS stall this boundary near or just south of the Red river,
while the Euro is farther south, but weaker with any cool air behind
the boundary. This will keep much of the area from seeing much
cooling for Friday and once again highs on Friday will be well into
the 80s. This will also keep some areas of elevated fire weather
from time to time through the week, especially on days with stronger
winds.

Upper ridge retreats to the southwest Friday into the weekend with
surface front remaining in the vicinity of north Texas. Models show
at least a couple of minor shortwaves traverse the eastern edge of
the ridge which may bring some low end precip chances to parts of
northeast Texas. Although currently looks like any precip would
remain rather limited in space and amounts would be light, not
aiding in any drought relief or any meaningful cooling. Well above
normal temperatures continue through next weekend.

October 1st-22nd

AV Daily High - 85.5
AV Daily Low - 65.0
AV Monthly - 75.3 (Warmest October on Record 2016-AV Monthly 74.1)
DPTR FN Normal +5.8
Total Monthly Precip - 0.00
DPTR FN Normal - -2.89