Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

ICON and CMC both agree on a strong frontal passage next week, also looks like the AO goes neutral- slightly negative down the road with a -NAO developing as well

[Brent]

This better be the last 90 degree day or someone is gonna get it

[jasons2k]

Here is a drought update from Jeff Lindner.

Flash drought continues to deepen and expand across the state and locally across all of SE TX.

After a very wet late spring and early to mid summer, below average rainfall began to appear in August and September and has greatly intensified in October. In fact, no site in SE TX has recorded rainfall for the month of October which is impressive given October is usually our second wettest month behind May. Although the recent dryness has been intense…so was the wetness earlier in the year and all climate sites remain well above normal on rainfall for 2024 except for Hobby Airport and Sugarland.

2024 Rainfall thru 10/23 and departures:

College Station: 39.94 +6.83
BUSH IAH: 51.20 +9.09
Hobby: 44.02 -1.50
Galveston: 56.64 +19.32
Conroe: 54.74 +14.51
Sugarland: 40.60 +.04

The last measurable rainfall at BUSH IAH was September 24 (.20 of an inch) and the last rainfall greater than .50 of an inch was recorded on September 6 (.64 of an inch). No climate sites in SE TX have recorded rainfall in the month of October.

October 2024 rainfall and departures:

College Station: 0.00 -3.49
BUSH IAH: 0.00 -3.82
Hobby: 0.00 -4.12
Galveston: 0.00 -3.66
Conroe: 0.00 -3.67
Sugarland: 0.00 -3.29

Fire:
While the recent dryness has been relatively short thus far compared to other dry spells…it has been intense and accompanied by much warmer than normal late summer and early fall temperatures. This has quickly resulted in drought degradation across the entire region and vegetation health quickly declining. The result has been an increase in wildland fire activity in recent weeks especially when drier air masses move over the region along with gusty winds. As the area moves deeper into the fall and winter months more frequent and stronger cold fronts will bring stronger winds and much drier air masses across the area and without any significant wetting rainfall fire weather conditions will quickly elevate. KDBI values which can be used for wildland fire risk show significant values over the area. The scale is from 0 (completely saturated) to 800 (completely void of moisture to 8 inches deep). Values above 650 indicate an increased risk of wildland fire and values over 700 indicate a significant risk. Increasing values indicate larger fuel loads drying…fine fuels (grasses) are readily available to burn and have slightly larger loads due to the wetness in summer resulting in a robust growing period. Larger ladder fuels (brush) are starting to show signs of drought stress and dryness and a few recent fires have noted large fuels (trees…especially juniper and pine) with some burn spread and crown runs. Additionally, spring and summer storms and Hurricane Beryl downed a significant number of limbs and trees which remain today. These limbs and trees have now dried and are adding to the fuel sources in portions of SE TX into E TX.

Average KBDI Values:

Austin: 735
Brazoria: 630
Brazos: 744
Chambers: 693
Colorado: 705
Fort Bend: 706
Galveston: 620
Grimes: 730
Harris: 727
Liberty: 739
Matagorda: 615
Montgomery: 715
San Jacinto: 717
Walker: 691
Washington: 738
Wharton: 689
Image

Water Supply:
Many SE TX lakes were in flood operations and releasing large flows late this spring including record releases at Lake Livingston which surpassed Harvey. Many of these same water supply lakes are currently now below their conservation pool levels and declining due to the late season heat and lack of rainfall. Water supply concerns are greater in central Texas where rainfall earlier in the year was much less and an ongoing multi-year hydrologic drought continues in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and westward. While late summer rains helped flows into the highland lakes…Lake Travis remains dangerously low.

Statewide conservation storage is at 71.2% which is down from a peak in late July of 76.6%, however this is higher than the 64.5% at this time last year (10/2023).

Lake level departures (ft) and % of capacity:

Conroe: -1.32 (93.8%)
Houston: -.25 (97.8%)
Livingston: -1.72 (91.9%)
Somerville: -1.89 (86.4%)
Texana: -2.83 (82.8%)
Travis: -41.90 (45.0%)

Long Range Forecast:
With the formation of La Nina in the eastern Pacific late this summer…warm and dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely over Texas and the southern plains into our fall and winter months. There remains some debate exactly how strong the current La Nina episode will become with better chances of a weak to possibly moderate La Nina than a strong La Nina. Such global oscillations tend to support southern plains drought and the developing La Nina likely has some fingerprint on the current dryness over Texas. Below normal rainfall is likely through early 2025 along with above normal temperatures. This will continue to worsen ongoing drought conditions with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicating drought development or persistence across all of Texas into early 2025. There are some indications that at least a slight chance of rainfall will be possible around Halloween into the first week of November…but guidance has been generally underwhelming on amounts thus far.

It should be noted that while La Nina winters tend to be mild with above average temperatures, short but significant cold air intrusions into the southern plains can occur in such patterns.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[TropicalTundra]

ICON and CMC both agree on a strong frontal passage next week, also looks like the AO goes neutral- slightly negative down the road with a -NAO developing as well

GFS has it too, but albeit stalls over North Texas.

Hopefully brings rain.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles trending cooler, especially the GEPS, that pacific air is getting flushed out

[Golfisnteasy7575]

ICON and CMC both agree on a strong frontal passage next week, also looks like the AO goes neutral- slightly negative down the road with a -NAO developing as well

GFS has it too, but albeit stalls over North Texas.

Hopefully brings rain.

Aifs Euro is the most exciting for better rain chances if it's to be believed

[Yukon Cornelius]

This better be the last 90 degree day or someone is gonna get it

It will be the last…again..

[rwfromkansas]

I have been fairly okay with a delayed fall, but okay, I am getting annoyed. I want rain and cooler weather. Goodness.

It is dry as a bone over much of the U.S. as well. What the heck.

[Stratton23]

Impressive -NAO blocking on the Euro AIFS, other models kinda show this too, interesting

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Impressive -NAO blocking on the Euro AIFS, other models kinda show this too, interesting

Better rain chances also so far

[Stratton23]

EPO takes a nose dive negative on the GFS, will need to see if we can get the teleconnections to line up, right now the EPO looks to stay close to neutral, but the AO and NAO are trending towards negative

[cstrunk]

00z Euro is about worst-case scenario for my wedding, with rain starting Thursday and continuing through Sunday. It seems like a front comes in and then stalls or lifts slowly back across the area, providing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

The GFS still seems to hold everything farther northwest with lower QPF.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro has drought busting rains in central texas

[Stratton23]

GEFS extended teleconnections map have the AO and NAO both going negative after halloween and remaining negative through all of November as well, EPO stays close to neutral the entire time as well, interesting

[wxman22]

Crossing Fingers...

[Stratton23]

Just for craziness the GFS has a triple block combination, Alaskan blocking, blocking over the arctic/beauford sea and a -NAO signature over greenland, probably will look different on the overnight run, but cant recal the last time ive seen a triple blocking setup lol , that would be crazy

[Texoz]

Just for craziness the GFS has a triple block combination, Alaskan blocking, blocking over the arctic/beauford sea and a -NAO signature over greenland, probably will look different on the overnight run, but cant recal the last time ive seen a triple blocking setup lol , that would be crazy

What kind of weather would that setup bring to the US and specifically Texas?

[Brent]

Well the airport measured 0.01" this morning. First rainfall of the month

it's a start anyway

Hoping midweek verifies

[Stratton23]

Texoz since its long range it probably wont verify, but lets say it did, with that kind of a blocking pattern, a good chunk of the central and eastern US would get a big cool down, but it is long range, that being said their is enough support that says the NAO and AO are both going to go negative over the next 7-10 days or so

[cstrunk]

Crossing Fingers...


https://i.ibb.co/hDL7rpk/Screenshot-2024-10-25-at-16-15-52-Models-ECMWF-Pivotal-Weather.png

While this would be great for the whole region this is terrible timing for me...