Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[underthwx]

EC-AI with a similar track as ICON into SE GOM then a turn to the NNE into Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PxWbP851/ec-aifs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh72-198.gif

Is this becoming a possibility now? This is from NWS Tampa forecast discussion.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Another quiet morning is getting underway with mostly clear skies
and temps in the 60s to low 70s. There are a few isolated
sprinkles across ECFL. However, more prevalent drier air should
limit the westward extent today, so continuing to keep just a
mention of sprinkles over the interior, and no mention near the
coast.

Overall, it should be pretty spooktacular for the evening with no
major weather impacts. While temperatures will run a bit above
normal and will start out warm, the evening should be fairly nice as
the sun starts to set. By 7PM, temperatures should be dropping into
the 70s.

The forecast remains on track.|

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Surface high pressure off the southeast U.S. coast will keep a
breezy easterly flow across the region today then diminish some on
Friday as the high moves further east and weakening cold front
moves into the southeast states. This front will eventually wash
out well north of the region with another area of high pressure
moving across the eastern states and building into our area over
the weekend. Overall the warm weather will continue through the
weekend with a few sprinkles/light showers possible each day,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Early next week the second high will move out into the Atlantic
Ocean with a more east to southeast flow setting up. Models are
still trying to indicate the possibility of a low pressure
area/weak tropical system moving north or northwest out of the
western Caribbean Sea next week, but overall confidence in the
location and strength of this system is very low. It does however
look like we`ll see some deeper moisture spread over the area by
midweek bringing us a better chance of showers.

[underthwx]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

[TomballEd]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

I wouldn't have posted the short term part of the forecast, just the long term discussion, for a more concise post. But nothing wrong noting NWS forecast offices are starting to pay attention.

[TomballEd]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

I wouldn't have posted the short term part of the forecast, just the long term discussion, for a more concise post. But nothing wrong noting NWS forecast offices are starting to pay attention.

As is Jim Cantore:
 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1851903831795233042

[underthwx]

Im sorry to ask this question on this thread, but am I properly posting except from forecast discussions? I think one of the discussions I shared, looked as if it was corrected to a different format, thanks for any help, usually I just copy and paste it, but I am unsure if this is correct, as you can see in my post above.

I wouldn't have posted the short term part of the forecast, just the long term discussion, for a more concise post. But nothing wrong noting NWS forecast offices are starting to pay attention.

As is Jim Cantore:
 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1851903831795233042

Thanks for your reply. Whenever there is a possibility of a cyclone possibility affecting any region or area, I like to read forecast discussions along the coastal, and inland areas of NWS responsibility. So far, I have noticed NWS Tampa is making mention of this broad low. I dedicate this post to Tolakram, who also helped me with my posting.

[Spacecoast]

Ensembles show bifurcation:

[Michele B]

Ensembles show bifurcation:
https://i.ibb.co/YjwdwYX/eps-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh144-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/R7fTyzy/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh144-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/PzRVLNv/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh162-300.gif

I'll take any of those!

[gatorcane]

EC-AIFS shows something more organized than the previous run and into the Eastern Gulf:

From a climatology perspective, that kind of track (or even more east) is more likely, not the models showing a storm heading northwest into the southern GOM.

[xironman]

I think by the end if the ICON run the ridge is broken down enough to allow the storm to start to head north

V=

[tolakram]

If this is a real trend ICON was first again.

Overnight Euro has a similar signal.

[tolakram]

Here's the ICON animation

[gatorcane]

Ut oh, the GFS ensemble coming in more bullish even in the short to medium term sending it into the NW Caribbean and SE GOM.

[ronjon]

Based on latest model runs I could see NHC bumping development odds to 60% in 7 days.

[Pasmorade]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next several days across portions of the area
from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Ivanhater]

Cmc into Northwest Florida as well. That would odd but strong high pressure has been in control for over a month with temps in the upper 80s.

[ronjon]

12z Euro has tropical storm into west-central GOM originating from the NW Caribbean. Think it's too far west given the time of year.

[boca]

12z Euro has tropical storm into west-central GOM originating from the NW Caribbean. Think it's too far west given the time of year.

We are in a September pattern now very weird.

[Stormlover70]

Unfortunately Florida will most likely be in the cross hairs when a center forms. It's that time of year....

[Nimbus]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next several days across portions of the area
from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

So NHC looking at the monsoon low over Panama and at least more rain Nicaragua southeastward.

[tolakram]

18Z Icon weaker at 120 hours.